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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Raffl and Gagne
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BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jul 13 @ 7:24 PM ET
Geez only 3 pages today and we've sunk to talking about the Phillies. Its official: we have entered the mid-July to Labor day hockey dead zone.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 7:34 PM ET
Trying to find prospects via UFA route is like going up to a buffet at the end of the night, looking over the picked-over carnage, and double-checking to see if a lobster tail didn't accidentally fall between a couple of chafing dishes. Yeah, one lucky guy might come out with the lobster, but the copy-cats are probably not going to find anything worth eating that way.

The draft is the first pass, and is light-years ahead in terms of probability of finding good players (and maybe lobster, too).

- Tomahawk


Scouting, signing, and developing undrafted Free Agents is a viable method of obtaining prospects and helping to build a prospect base. There's a reason why the draft is described as a crap shoot. It's an inexact science. The Flyers should continue to try and find good talent from the undrafted ranks. They should continue to use every viable alternative to find good players.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 7:35 PM ET
We got Matt Read, Erik Gustafsson, and now Michael Raffl as undrafted UFA signings. Matt Read, and Erik Gustafsson have proven themselves to be effective NHL starters, and now hopefully Raffl will follow. I'd much rather use roster spaces on undrafted over-agers like Gus, Read, and Raffl who are beginning to show that they're just late bloomers, than use the same roster spaces on 6th/7th round career CHL or AHL players.
- JAKEw1234


Exactly. A good player is a good player. Whether he was drafted or not. But where's the lame food analogy?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 7:36 PM ET
Read and Raffl were not regular undrafted hidden gems. They were fairly well known and teams competed for them.

For every Gustafsson, there 2 or 3 Mike Testwuides, Andrew Rowes or Tyler Browns that never sniff the NHL

- Jsaquella


And the same for players drafted in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th round, etc. Most won't make it. Some will.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 7:42 PM ET
But it does... there's an opportunity cost associated with dedicating one of the limited contract slots on such long shots, especially when it takes a multi-year deal to land most of these guys.

There were a little over 100 undrafted players who played in the NHL last season, out of a league of 800+ players... out of that 100 or so, only a handful were what any of us would consider difference-makers. With the way teams were chasing after the next Fasth or Brunner, you'd think the odds were incredible.

- Tomahawk


This is really simple. Why do teams pursue undrafted Free Agents? Because they don't know any better? Nothing ventured, nothing gained. It's no different they trying to develop drafted players. The expectation is not that most will pay off. The expectation is that every once in a while, you'll hit on a player. Like Read or Gustafsson.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 7:43 PM ET
Who would you rather use a roster spot on, a 24 year old 7th round round pick who has shown no promise to ever become an NHL player, or on a 24 year old undrafted player who is a target of multiple teams and is proving himself to be a late bloomer with good potential to become an NHL starter? If he doesn't pan out, then whatever. It's only costing us the roster spot we freed up by cutting the player of zero promise.
- JAKEw1234




Dkos
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gritty, PA
Joined: 01.15.2007

Jul 13 @ 7:47 PM ET
Exactly. A good player is a good player. Whether he was drafted or not. But where's the lame food analogy?

- MJL


young hockey players are like a box of chocolates?
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jul 13 @ 7:52 PM ET
young hockey players are like a box of chocolates?
- Dkos

ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 7:56 PM ET
Beyond Tomorrow: The Class of 2014

http://www.hockeysfuture....morrow-the-class-of-2014/
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 13 @ 8:10 PM ET
Beyond Tomorrow: The Class of 2014

http://www.hockeysfuture....morrow-the-class-of-2014/

- ob18

I can't believe there aren't extensive stories about the class of 2015 yet
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 8:15 PM ET
I can't believe there aren't extensive stories about the class of 2015 yet
- JAKEw1234


Much of those kids haven't even played juniors, USHL, or other leagues yet outside of Connor McDavid. He had a decent first year with Erie.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 8:16 PM ET
I can't believe there aren't extensive stories about the class of 2015 yet
- JAKEw1234


Can't wait to watch many of them, won't get to watch the players from Europe.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 13 @ 8:18 PM ET
Can't wait to watch many of them, won't get to watch the players from Europe.
- ob18

So who will be the team to try to collect all the Reinharts? Max, Griffin, and Sam are all great prospects.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 8:21 PM ET
So who will be the team to try to collect all the Reinharts? Max, Griffin, and Sam are all great prospects.
- JAKEw1234


Well Max is with Calgary & Griffin is with the Islanders.

Who knows, I hope to watch some WHL games but the time difference will be a problem.

I want to see more or Michael Dal Colle, Jared McCann, & Roland McKeown.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 13 @ 8:31 PM ET
Well Max is with Calgary & Griffin is with the Islanders.

Who knows, I hope to watch some WHL games but the time difference will be a problem.

I want to see more or Michael Dal Colle, Jared McCann, & Roland McKeown.

- ob18

Oh I guess Calgary will have a real good shot at drafting Reinhart next year.
EDIT: I wonder what it would take for calgary to get Griffin from the Isles. Are these guys the next Staal brothers?
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 8:33 PM ET
Oh I guess Calgary will have a real good shot at drafting Reinhart next year.
- JAKEw1234


Right now as good of a chance as any.
KINGKENZO
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: OMAR COMIN'..Head or Gut?.....Watching regular white people
Joined: 01.10.2008

Jul 13 @ 8:51 PM ET
Broken right foot for Revere

SELL SELL SELL
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 13 @ 9:00 PM ET
Who would you rather use a roster spot on, a 24 year old 7th round round pick who has shown no promise to ever become an NHL player, or on a 24 year old undrafted player who is a target of multiple teams and is proving himself to be a late bloomer with good potential to become an NHL starter? If he doesn't pan out, then whatever. It's only costing us the roster spot we freed up by cutting the player of zero promise.
- JAKEw1234



Unfortunately, those 7th-round duds aren't getting offered contracts anyway, so the cost isn't coming out of that group.

Take, for example, the beginning of the 2011-12 season. Couturier was ready to make the team but they didn't have a contract-slot available to carry him, mostly because they had signed so many overage UFAs to compensate for the picks lost in the Pronger trade.

So they ended up being forced to gift a 6th-round pick to LA just to entice them to take Stefan Legein (former 37th-overall pick, Team Canada Gold Medal winner) off our hands, a player that cost us a 42nd-overall offensive dman to acquire originally (Mike Ratchuk). That's a 6th-rounder and a prospect taken in the top-40 just to open up a slot taken up by the Testwuides, Rowes, etc.

That's what I meant when I said these kinds of moves seem free, but there's an opportunity cost to making them.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 13 @ 9:11 PM ET
Unfortunately, those 7th-round duds aren't getting offered contracts anyway, so the cost isn't coming out of that group.

Take, for example, the beginning of the 2011-12 season. Couturier was ready to make the team but they didn't have a contract-slot available to carry him, mostly because they had signed so many overage UFAs to compensate for the picks lost in the Pronger trade.

So they ended up being forced to gift a 6th-round pick to LA just to entice them to take Stefan Legein (former 37th-overall pick, Team Canada Gold Medal winner) off our hands, a player that cost us a 42nd-overall offensive dman to acquire originally (Mike Ratchuk). That's a 6th-rounder and a prospect taken in the top-40 just to open up a slot taken up by the Testwuides, Rowes, etc.

That's what I meant when I said these kinds of moves seem free, but there's an opportunity cost to making them.

- Tomahawk

it's still worth giving up minor assets like that if it gives us a chance of finding another Read or Gustafsson.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 9:16 PM ET
Unfortunately, those 7th-round duds aren't getting offered contracts anyway, so the cost isn't coming out of that group.

Take, for example, the beginning of the 2011-12 season. Couturier was ready to make the team but they didn't have a contract-slot available to carry him, mostly because they had signed so many overage UFAs to compensate for the picks lost in the Pronger trade.

So they ended up being forced to gift a 6th-round pick to LA just to entice them to take Stefan Legein (former 37th-overall pick, Team Canada Gold Medal winner) off our hands, a player that cost us a 42nd-overall offensive dman to acquire originally (Mike Ratchuk). That's a 6th-rounder and a prospect taken in the top-40 just to open up a slot taken up by the Testwuides, Rowes, etc.

That's what I meant when I said these kinds of moves seem free, but there's an opportunity cost to making them.

- Tomahawk


That's misleading. You're combining 2 moves there and blaming it on signing undrafted Free Agents. The Flyers obviously were ready to move on from Ratchuk, and swapped prospects with another team.
A GM should be constantly looking for ways to improve the team. They shouldn't just hang on to a prospect because he was drafted. And if it takes moving a 6th round pick to make the NHL team better, so be it. That is all that matters.

And that top 40 pick that the Flyers had to move (Legein). LA just declined to tender a Qualifying Offer to the player. Huge loss there, for the Flyers.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 9:17 PM ET
it's still worth giving up minor assets like that if it gives us a chance of finding another Read or Gustafsson.
- JAKEw1234


No question about it.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 13 @ 9:17 PM ET
it's still worth giving up minor assets like that if it gives us a chance of finding another Read or Gustafsson.
- JAKEw1234


You do understand that nobody is saying that they should avoid undrafted free agents altogether.

What is being said is they should be more judicious in signing guys to NHL contracts. They didn't magically discover Matt Read, he was a highly coveted player. They didn't magically discover Raffl, other teams knew about him and were trying to sign him.

Nobody was beating down Tyler Brown's door. Nobody was trying out outbid 6 other teams for Andrew Rowe.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 13 @ 9:19 PM ET
That's misleading. You're combining 2 moves there and blaming it on signing undrafted Free Agents. The Flyers obviously were ready to move on from Ratchuk, and swapped prospects with another team.
A GM should be constantly looking for ways to improve the team. They shouldn't just hang on to a prospect because he was drafted. And if it takes moving a 6th round pick to make the NHL team better, so be it. That is all that matters.

- MJL


It's not misleading. They traded for a guy and then had to trade an asset to get rid of him a year later. It's a minor asset, but it's still an asset they had to give away because they exceeded the contract limit.

It's not specifically Legein's deal, it was the deals given to guys like Brown, Teswuide and Rowe. Legein just happened to be the one guy they could get anyone to bite on.

Narrowing it down to just Legein is being misleading.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 9:26 PM ET
It's not misleading. They traded for a guy and then had to trade an asset to get rid of him a year later. It's a minor asset, but it's still an asset they had to give away because they exceeded the contract limit.

It's not specifically Legein's deal, it was the deals given to guys like Brown, Teswuide and Rowe. Legein just happened to be the one guy they could get anyone to bite on.

Narrowing it down to just Legein is being misleading.

- Jsaquella


It's absolutely misleading. The Flyers trading Ratchuk for Legein has zero to do with Couturier. It was a completely separate transaction.

There's nothing wrong with the Flyers approach to undrafted Free Agents. It's no different then drafting players. Most aren't going to work out. And it still comes down to choices. They could've done something else. And honestly, let's not gloss over that they really gave nothing away. Legein is pretty much a career AHL player, whom LA just declined to qualify. This again is an overreaction. And a mountain made out of a molehill.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 13 @ 9:28 PM ET
You do understand that nobody is saying that they should avoid undrafted free agents altogether.

What is being said is they should be more judicious in signing guys to NHL contracts. They didn't magically discover Matt Read, he was a highly coveted player. They didn't magically discover Raffl, other teams knew about him and were trying to sign him.

Nobody was beating down Tyler Brown's door. Nobody was trying out outbid 6 other teams for Andrew Rowe.

- Jsaquella


It's irrelevant that other teams weren't beating Brown or Rowe's door down. And I don't think any of us have that factual information, to know how many teams were interested in those players as undrafted Free Agents. If the Flyers scouts saw something and felt that they were players they should take a chance on. Then that's all that matters. Real easy to sit back and judge after the fact, based on what players turned out, and which didn't. The Flyers don't have that luxury.
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