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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Are Flyers Turning the Corner in Defense Development?
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flyler
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: LA, CA
Joined: 05.23.2008

Jul 8 @ 12:27 PM ET
MJL, I certainly respect your opinion, but I'm not sure the Flyers draft record suggests anything more than the Flyers scouting department, and GM, at being average in the 1st round and below average beyond round 2. I just looked at the majority of teams drafts from 2000 onwards on HockeyDB. A few observations:

1. Some teams really screw up the first round, but most end up with decent players with the exception of a miss hear and there.

2. First rounders generally get to the NHL within 2-3 years, and the highest drafted players within 1-2. Taking a flyer, pun intended, on a project with a 5 year projected development cycle in the 1st round is a highly suspect strategy.

3. Where the Flyers really come up short is in the "hidden gem" department. Since 2000, the Flyers have only drafted 3 players after round 2 that made a significant contribution - Sharp, Seidenberg and Cechmanek. All of those were in the 2000-2001 timeframe. Since then they have gotten a few role players that could easily have been acquired cheaply through free agency or even as undrafted FA.

4. Visually inspecting most of the other teams (I'm catching a plane shortly and don't have time for a detailed analysis), you find more steals per average than Philly, and of course some teams that really seem to unearth the real gems.

5. They have had many swings and misses by drafting players of the same mold - the Garrett Klotzes if you will. I personally am ok if they draft a Matsumoto or Lehtivuori and it doesn't work out. But drafting Derek Mathers over Clapperton or whoever it was is a general organizational mindset that leaves much to be desired.

Again, from a draft perspective they are average, nothing more, nothing less.

- TheGreat28


However the Flyers organization is extremely adept at finding talent surpassed by the draft and signing it. Guys like Manning, Gus, Read, Bobrovsky are found after the draft and signed. One of the reasons is that waiting to see how some players develop going through college or Juniors can be more telling than trying to draft them at 17-18. Tell me guys like Bobrovsky or Read were not 'Hidden Gems'. Sometimes I think we focus too much on the draft and not the moves made afterwards.
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jul 8 @ 12:27 PM ET
To be fair, Neal is a perfect fit to play with centers like Crosby and Malkin. Jamie Benn was a winger at the time of the trade. I don't know if they thought he would develop into a top line center. Not saying it was a good trade on Dallas part. Just trying to say that Neal would not put up better numbers in ANY other situation than the one he's in now.
- PhillySportsGuy

Oh, shush and let me hate on Dallas for helping Pittsburgh get better.

PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 8 @ 12:27 PM ET
11-20 is the middle third of the first round, so technically he's still correct, even including Carter there.
- dilbert719

BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jul 8 @ 12:27 PM ET
Poor Gagne - always the bridesmaid...
I knew it would stay quiet over the weekend. Hoping it livens up today though.

Sorry I haven't been around, works been insane, the dog hospice has been in full swing, and to top it off my fiancee's mom is in ICU... GREAT week for me!

- FlyersGrace


Sorry kiddo, hope things get better soon!! Keep your chin up and the booze flowing in the meantime!!
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 8 @ 12:27 PM ET
Most defenseman chosen in any draft are 4-5 years away. Players are drafted at 17 and 18 years old. So I disagree with you there. And I also disagree that is any more of a risk then taking any of the other players. And you're also confusing the draft, and needing a player right away. Two different things. I don't think the Flyers brass thinks that they've eliminated that need by drafting Morin. But regardless of who is still on the team, the Flyers will still need to feild a team in 5-8 years. And that is what the draft is for. For the future.
- MJL

It's part of the reason I'm greatly in favor of putting a sizeable package together for dougie hamilton. He's a top 4 dman now and he's only 20. When's the last time a dman was picked in a draft and he was only 2 years out?
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jul 8 @ 12:28 PM ET
Just curious... How long in term of years is everyone willing to be patient with young core progressing? Taking into account there are going to be major ups and downs. Look at l schenn and vorachek as example( multiple years of ups and downs before really beginning to hit there stride)
- SMS4016

I figure I have 40+ years left on this Earth, so I'll say 50. After that I'll have bigger fish to fry.
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jul 8 @ 12:29 PM ET
Poor Gagne - always the bridesmaid...
I knew it would stay quiet over the weekend. Hoping it livens up today though.

Sorry I haven't been around, works been insane, the dog hospice has been in full swing, and to top it off my fiancee's mom is in ICU... GREAT week for me!

- FlyersGrace

Yikes. Praying for your mom-in-law-to-be.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jul 8 @ 12:29 PM ET
Just curious... How long in term of years is everyone willing to be patient with young core progressing? Taking into account there are going to be major ups and downs. Look at l schenn and vorachek as example( multiple years of ups and downs before really beginning to hit there stride)
- SMS4016


Until the Flyers Championship drought reaches Chicago Cubs levels. Another 70 years or so.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 8 @ 12:29 PM ET
Just curious... How long in term of years is everyone willing to be patient with young core progressing? Taking into account there are going to be major ups and downs. Look at l schenn and vorachek as example( multiple years of ups and downs before really beginning to hit there stride)
- SMS4016


3-5 years for forwards
5-7 years for defenseman
Goalies are a whole other animal.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jul 8 @ 12:30 PM ET
11-20 is the middle third of the first round, so technically he's still correct, even including Carter there.
- dilbert719

oh boy...
wtfd103074
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: turnersville, NJ
Joined: 02.20.2012

Jul 8 @ 12:30 PM ET
Renberg looks like he's still an active player.

I'm probably the only Flyers fan that had Renberg as their favorite player from the Legion of Doom line.

- PLindbergh31



First Jersey i ever bought
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 8 @ 12:30 PM ET
Oh, shush and let me hate on Dallas for helping Pittsburgh get better.


- Flyskippy


It was amazing how quickly we grew to hate Neal.
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jul 8 @ 12:30 PM ET
It's part of the reason I'm greatly in favor of putting a sizeable package together for dougie hamilton. He's a top 4 dman now and he's only 20. When's the last time a dman was picked in a draft and he was only 2 years out?
- JAKEw1234


Pronger went right onto the Whalers' roster
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jul 8 @ 12:31 PM ET
First Jersey i ever bought
- wtfd103074


Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jul 8 @ 12:31 PM ET
It was amazing how quickly we grew to hate Neal.
- PhillySportsGuy

One elbow is all it takes. Hence my disdain of Corey Perry.
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jul 8 @ 12:32 PM ET
First Jersey i ever bought
- wtfd103074

Ditto. Was happy that it became relevant again when he was re-acquired. I also have a Team Sweden Renberg in storage somewhere.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 8 @ 12:32 PM ET
It's part of the reason I'm greatly in favor of putting a sizeable package together for dougie hamilton. He's a top 4 dman now and he's only 20. When's the last time a dman was picked in a draft and he was only 2 years out?
- JAKEw1234


He's not a top 4 dman now. The bruins sat him for most of the playoffs.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jul 8 @ 12:32 PM ET
oh boy...
- mayorofangrytown


I'd rather make "John Leclair is fat" jokes than debate "When does the middle of the first round of the draft start?".
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 8 @ 12:32 PM ET
MJL, I certainly respect your opinion, but I'm not sure the Flyers draft record suggests anything more than the Flyers scouting department, and GM, at being average in the 1st round and below average beyond round 2. I just looked at the majority of teams drafts from 2000 onwards on HockeyDB. A few observations:

1. Some teams really screw up the first round, but most end up with decent players with the exception of a miss hear and there.

2. First rounders generally get to the NHL within 2-3 years, and the highest drafted players within 1-2. Taking a flyer, pun intended, on a project with a 5 year projected development cycle in the 1st round is a highly suspect strategy.

3. Where the Flyers really come up short is in the "hidden gem" department. Since 2000, the Flyers have only drafted 3 players after round 2 that made a significant contribution - Sharp, Seidenberg and Cechmanek. All of those were in the 2000-2001 timeframe. Since then they have gotten a few role players that could easily have been acquired cheaply through free agency or even as undrafted FA.

4. Visually inspecting most of the other teams (I'm catching a plane shortly and don't have time for a detailed analysis), you find more steals per average than Philly, and of course some teams that really seem to unearth the real gems.

5. They have had many swings and misses by drafting players of the same mold - the Garrett Klotzes if you will. I personally am ok if they draft a Matsumoto or Lehtivuori and it doesn't work out. But drafting Derek Mathers over Clapperton or whoever it was is a general organizational mindset that leaves much to be desired.

Again, from a draft perspective they are average, nothing more, nothing less.

- TheGreat28



I'd like to see some nunbers to back this up.

Regardless, it really doesn't have anything to do with the conversation. However you want to rate them, they are still more infinitely qualified then we are in players avaluations. So I don't know how a any poster can think that they know better then the professional talent evaluators who work for the Flyers.
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jul 8 @ 12:32 PM ET
3-5 years for forwards
5-7 years for defenseman
Goalies are a whole other animal.

- PhillySportsGuy



The last sentence is true on so many levels.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 8 @ 12:33 PM ET
I think we're the strongest team for picking in the late 1st round. Giroux is the best 22nd overall pick according to NHL.com, and Richards is the best 24th overall. We're very good at finding amazing players in the late 1st round where most players selected in that area aren't even projected 1st line players.
- JAKEw1234


Yes, they have done well, probably better than average in later 1st round. They're not the only team of course (ex: Anaheim with Perry and Getzlaf, etc). But when you look at their drafts in total, they are average.

IMHO, Part of the reason of course is not having 1st round picks in a number of the years over the last decade +. The other part is drafting players that realistically have an upside at best of a 3rd or 4th line energy/grinder/fighter or 6/7 dman.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 8 @ 12:33 PM ET
One elbow is all it takes. Hence my disdain of Corey Perry.
- Flyskippy


An elbow and a cheap shot on Coots.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 8 @ 12:33 PM ET
It's part of the reason I'm greatly in favor of putting a sizeable package together for dougie hamilton. He's a top 4 dman now and he's only 20. When's the last time a dman was picked in a draft and he was only 2 years out?
- JAKEw1234

Dude you're greatly in favor of putting a sizeable packge together for anyone
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jul 8 @ 12:33 PM ET
jagr cracks me up

i picture him turning down all sorts of offers lol
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jul 8 @ 12:33 PM ET
I'd like to see some nunbers to back this up.

Regardless, it really doesn't have anything to do with the conversation. However you want to rate them, they are still more infinitely qualified then we are in players avaluations. So I don't know how a any poster can think that they know better then the professional talent evaluators who work for the Flyers.

- MJL

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