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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Luongo, Cap Space
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Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 26 @ 8:23 AM ET
That's why I'm surprised that they haven't simply...accepted this and cut ties with him.

It's that simple -- no one can take that contract. Even if they take money back in a deal, the cap recapture still exists in that contract.

Trading that contract...it can't be done. I know you should never say never, but that contract can't be traded. I can't believe an ownership group would authorize it, even if a GM from another team requested it.

- AllInForFlyers


I was amazed he didn't move at the trade deadline. Once that passed, Vancouver basically backed themselves into a corner.
Flyers_01
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2006

Jun 26 @ 8:25 AM ET
Let's say Mason ends up playing significant minutes this year and ends up posting a decent .915 sv%, 2.60 GAA during the regular season. Not elite but definately better than what the Flyers have gotten out of their starter the last 2 years. Do you, knowing he's going to be an RFA :

1. Sign him to a bridge contract and see if he progresses.
2. Sign him to a lifetime contract with a NMC.
3. Zero in on the biggest name goalie on the market and throw as much money as it takes to land him necessitating the trade of Mason because he will be making to much money as a backup.

moylander
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jun 26 @ 8:25 AM ET
The problem with a Luongo trade is, that the cap recapture ramifications remain in place. The same goes for a waivers claim.
- Jsaquella


Cap recapture is a bigger problem for Vancouver, not the team that he is traded to since the contact is heavily front load and Vancouver was the team that benefited from his low cap hit. A team that trades for lu at worst case scenario will be on the hook for less than $2 million aav a season if he were to retire early.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jun 26 @ 8:26 AM ET
That's why I'm surprised that they haven't simply...accepted this and cut ties with him.

It's that simple -- no one can take that contract. Even if they take money back in a deal, the cap recapture still exists in that contract.

Trading that contract...it can't be done. I know you should never say never, but that contract can't be traded. I can't believe an ownership group would authorize it, even if a GM from another team requested it.

- AllInForFlyers

that's another buyout that appears inevitable
iroc4me2
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Spring Mount, PA
Joined: 06.17.2007

Jun 26 @ 8:28 AM ET
Anything more than a 2 year deal for any goalie like Booby Lou, Timmy T, or any of these other high end goalies, and I'm not interested. With the track record that we have with goalies, I'd be quite nervous that whoever they select, will be a bust. So keep it 2 years or less, and this way we aren't stuck with another ridiculous goalie contract. For the record, I personally like the idea of a FA Luongo 2 years @ 4MIL, but I'd really like to avoid anymore distractions like Thomas, and i'm not very interested in Razor, his hips scare me
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jun 26 @ 8:30 AM ET
Wennberg is the youngest top prospect on the first round board. He was only a few days away from sliding into the 2014 draft. He would be a great pick at 11. He is going to be a big boy when fully grown and is apparently one of the best skaters in the draft. There are some really good players in the 11 to 20 range and the Flyers are going to get a very good talent. The kid I like the most around the 10th pick is Nurse. Has all the Pronger attributes. Big, mean, really good skater, team leader wherever he has played.

Nurse and Wennberg are my two favorites once you get beyond the top 5 elites.

- spatso

You slyly left out offense to make your comparison to Pronger and that's what made him so dangerous. Nurse is much more likely to develop into a purely physical D man, and theres nothing wrong with that. But Pronger he will never be. I dont think another purely physical D man is what this team needs. I'd much rather take Ristolianen or Pulock over him if all three were on the board still at 11.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 26 @ 8:35 AM ET
Cap recapture is a bigger problem for Vancouver, not the team that he is traded to since the contact is heavily front load and Vancouver was the team that benefited from his low cap hit. A team that trades for lu at worst case scenario will be on the hook for less than $2 million a season if he were to retire early.
- moylander


Even though it's worse for Vancouver, there aren't any teams that I know of in the league that are prepared to carry actual dead space on the cap, while paying actual salary.

For instance, the Flyers could have opted to keep Danny Briere's $6.5 million cap hit with the actual salary at $3 million. But if they had, he would've been playing for them, actually in the lineup.

What you described -- which could happen -- is that you literally would be carrying the cap charge but the player isn't even there.

That isn't like carrying an injured player, like Chris Pronger, where you get cap relief. That salary is actually on your cap. That would be the height of asset mismanagement, in a cap world, to carry a charge without a player.

The mismanagement would be even worse for Vancouver, which still needs to field a team -- again, that's a live charge on your cap, not a fake one or dead one. They would literally be saying, "We're not going to spend money on an actual player. We're going to carry a charge for..."

For what reason? There is no good reason.
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hart-Land, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Jun 26 @ 8:36 AM ET
Let's say Mason ends up playing significant minutes this year and ends up posting a decent .915 sv%, 2.60 GAA during the regular season. Not elite but definately better than what the Flyers have gotten out of their starter the last 2 years. Do you, knowing he's going to be an RFA :

1. Sign him to a bridge contract and see if he progresses.
2. Sign him to a lifetime contract with a NMC.
3. Zero in on the biggest name goalie on the market and throw as much money as it takes to land him necessitating the trade of Mason because he will be making to much money as a backup.

- Flyers_01


I'd sign him to a significant raise but not a lifetime deal.. maybe 3 or 4 mil for 4 years.
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

Jun 26 @ 8:37 AM ET
For whatever its worth (very little?), Craig Button has posted his final mock draft on TSN and has MacKinnon going first overall and Seth Jones going second.

He has Wennberg at #10 to Dallas, Samuel Morin to Philly at #11 and Hunter Shinkaruk at #12 to Phoenix.


oh.. and Darnell Nurse at #7 to Edmonton.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jun 26 @ 8:40 AM ET
For whatever its worth (very little?), Craig Button has posted his final mock draft on TSN and has MacKinnon going first overall and Seth Jones going second.

He has Wennberg at #10 to Dallas, Samuel Morin to Philly at #11 and Hunter Shinkaruk at #12 to Phoenix.


oh.. and Darnell Nurse at #7 to Edmonton.

- Doc_Sarcasm

Button's mock is one of the absolute worst I've seen. Not sure why it keeps getting so much attention. If the Flyers are that dead set on Morin they'll trade down or trade up with the 41st. Thinking he'll go at 11 is deeply amusing to me.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 26 @ 8:41 AM ET
Not as high or Nurse. Wennberg is intriguing, but I have other names in mind. Depending on what is available, I'd love to trade down and try to get a second 1st rounder.

I wonder if the Blue Jackets would be willing to trade the two later first rounders they hold for the 11th pick.

- Jsaquella

I think we have both been beating that drum... the 11th for the 19th and 27th. CGY could also be an option with 22&28...
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 26 @ 8:41 AM ET
Bobby Lu please.


If only just to deal with the media. Yesterday proved the Flyers have the most embarassing media coverage of any sports team in the country. I wish you had a bigger following than all these goons Bill. Keep up the great work.

- hereticpride


Not sure why you want to bring in a 34 year old goaltender who will likely require a large financial commitment. He fell out of favor in Vancouver. There is a good chance that by the time the Flyers are legit contenders again that Luongo is shot.

I think bringing in Emery to compete with Mason makes sense. The only concern there is can he stay healthy.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 26 @ 8:42 AM ET
I think we have both been beating that drum... the 11th for the 19th and 27th. CGY could also be an option with 22&28...
- jak521


I like where you guys are on that -- can't be scared to trade down, if you like players in those ranges.
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

Jun 26 @ 8:43 AM ET
Button's mock is one of the absolute worst I've seen. Not sure why it keeps getting so much attention. If the Flyers are that dead set on Morin they'll trade down or trade up with the 41st. Thinking he'll go at 11 is deeply amusing to me.
- hereticpride



Just for S&G's I'm going to see how far off the actual draft is from his mockery.
griouxmvp2012
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NJ
Joined: 06.27.2011

Jun 26 @ 8:44 AM ET
Button's mock is one of the absolute worst I've seen. Not sure why it keeps getting so much attention. If the Flyers are that dead set on Morin they'll trade down or trade up with the 41st. Thinking he'll go at 11 is deeply amusing to me.
- hereticpride

One draft has us taking furcale at 11 haha that's pretty bad. I still think they move up into the 5th spot
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 26 @ 8:44 AM ET
For whatever its worth (very little?), Craig Button has posted his final mock draft on TSN and has MacKinnon going first overall and Seth Jones going second.

He has Wennberg at #10 to Dallas, Samuel Morin to Philly at #11 and Hunter Shinkaruk at #12 to Phoenix.


oh.. and Darnell Nurse at #7 to Edmonton.

- Doc_Sarcasm


Morin is going to be a star or a bust. You can never really figure out what happens to the super sized kids until they start playing against men. So far, his numbers look good, especially his improvement over last year.

There are some really intriguing players around the 11 spot. This might actually be the year to trade down as everyone wants to move up and you might get a really good return on a trade.
moylander
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jun 26 @ 8:45 AM ET
Even though it's worse for Vancouver, there aren't any teams that I know of in the league that are prepared to carry actual dead space on the cap, while paying actual salary.

For instance, the Flyers could have opted to keep Danny Briere's $6.5 million cap hit with the actual salary at $3 million. But if they had, he would've been playing for them, actually in the lineup.

What you described -- which could happen -- is that you literally would be carrying the cap charge but the player isn't even there.

That isn't like carrying an injured player, like Chris Pronger, where you get cap relief. That salary is actually on your cap. That would be the height of asset mismanagement, in a cap world, to carry a charge without a player.

The mismanagement would be even worse for Vancouver, which still needs to field a team -- again, that's a live charge on your cap, not a fake one or dead one. They would literally be saying, "We're not going to spend money on an actual player. We're going to carry a charge for..."

For what reason? There is no good reason.

- AllInForFlyers



Understood. Most likely he is bought out.

To your point the penalty would not be applied until he retires (say in 5 years at age 39). By that time $2 million will be less than 1.5% of the cap. It all depends on what you think Lu will haul in on the open market today. I happen to think the shorter the contract the closer to $6 million AAV he will get. His $5.33 aav is appropriate for what he brings to the table the next 5 years imo. Have to assume there's no way any of these CBO guys take a lesser contract because they have a big heart and feel guilty another team is also paying them... Their agents will make sure of it
aosplayo
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 01.14.2008

Jun 26 @ 8:45 AM ET
My understanding is that they can, and if you're the Canucks and that decision was made in a vacuum, you'd do that and continue to hope for a miracle trade rather than give him away for free, because no one is claiming that contract.

But in reality, here's what you've got: A player who you negotiated with in good faith, who you decided is no longer the starter, whose contract is untradable.

The Flyers, for all their faults, showed how you handle that: You bite the bullet, pay the buyout, and move on.

That's unfortunate for all involved. But that's how this CBA worked out. Vancouver...I mean, seriously. Nobody, including the Flyers, wants to pay a player for a decade-plus to not play for them.

But when you put the player on waivers, that's...exactly what you're doing. You're just paying the player to not play for you.

I don't read coverage of Vancouver every day, so I don't know where they are on it. I was under the impression that their GM feels there is a deal to be made for Roberto Luongo.

My personal opinion: If there was a deal to be made, it would've happened by now. Waivers is an option, but, again, at some point Vancouver needs to accept these realities:

1. Roberto Luongo's cap recapture makes his contract horrific.
2. You are not going to "win" a trade for Roberto Luongo, if you are able to trade him in some sort of package, because there isn't a team in the league that can handle that recapture. There is no "hockey trade" for Roberto Luongo.
3. The contract is now, in business terms, "sunk cost." It's guaranteed. You have to pay it in either its entirety if you keep the player, even if you put him on waivers if he goes unclaimed, which he would -- which is absolutely their right, since he's under contract -- or pay less through a buyout.

Those are the options they have. There are not other options. They can talk about it and pretend there are, but reality dictates there are not other options.

- AllInForFlyers


Thanks

I was confused then cause I thought if he cleared waivers hed be a FA anyways and theyd save the cap space. A PR nightmare for sure, but theyd save space. One day I will understand how this CBA crap works.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 26 @ 8:46 AM ET
Wennberg is the youngest top prospect on the first round board. He was only a few days away from sliding into the 2014 draft. He would be a great pick at 11. He is going to be a big boy when fully grown and is apparently one of the best skaters in the draft. There are some really good players in the 11 to 20 range and the Flyers are going to get a very good talent. The kid I like the most around the 10th pick is Nurse. Has all the Pronger attributes. Big, mean, really good skater, team leader wherever he has played.

Nurse and Wennberg are my two favorites once you get beyond the top 5 elites.

- spatso

I like Wennberg as well, but I have a bad feeling he ends up being a lot like Stalberg.. Huge, great wheels, but the lack of tenacity or compete level prevent him from being a true star.

Stalberg has the ability... the skill set, the speed, the body size.... to dominate, yet never has put it all together. I could see Wennberg in that same category.
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hart-Land, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Jun 26 @ 8:47 AM ET
Not sure why you want to bring in a 34 year old goaltender who will likely require a large financial commitment. He fell out of favor in Vancouver. There is a good chance that by the time the Flyers are legit contenders again that Luongo is shot.

I think bringing in Emery to compete with Mason makes sense. The only concern there is can he stay healthy.

- PLindbergh31


If they do a medical and say that Emery is healthy, I am ok to bring him in to play alongside Mason for maybe 2 years 2 mil. I'm a big Rayzor fan actually.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jun 26 @ 8:47 AM ET
Vancouver Canucks general manager Mike Gillis is still clinging to hope that he will be able to trade Luongo in order to avoid burning up a compliance buyout that would keep the goalie on the payroll (but not the salary cap) for the next 18 years. Good luck with that.


Mike Gillis is the that guy at the club, drunk and desperate on the dance floor at 2AM.

tangent_man
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey
Joined: 11.28.2007

Jun 26 @ 8:47 AM ET
The best thing is, they have options and do not need to lock onto one guy and overpay in contract or assets for him.
- Jsaquella


Odds are good that the goalie they bring in won't cost assets, but I wouldn't count on the 'not overpaying in contract' part.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 26 @ 8:50 AM ET
I like where you guys are on that -- can't be scared to trade down, if you like players in those ranges.
- AllInForFlyers

The crazy thing about this draft is that after about pick 7-8, the next 20 or so picks could be all over the place.. You realistically have a chance at seeing a guy like Pulock go anywhere from 10-20.. or a guy like BOHO go 12-24, or Morin. etc..


I would almost prefer to do that, but I suspect Homer will move up... hell, Im almost positive after his comments yesterday
griouxmvp2012
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NJ
Joined: 06.27.2011

Jun 26 @ 8:50 AM ET
Odds are good that the goalie they bring in won't cost assets, but I wouldn't count on the 'not overpaying in contract' part.
- tangent_man

I wouldn't mind luongo as a free agent
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hart-Land, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Jun 26 @ 8:50 AM ET
Mike Gillis is the that guy at the club, drunk and desperate on the dance floor at 2AM.
- johndewar


LOL nice analogy. There will be no takers for that contract. Buy him out and move on like we did.
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