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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Cause for Concern in Re-Signing Free Agents Next Summer
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vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:01 AM ET
You can argue "if" values all day.

If Seth Jones is really the next Pronger/Weber, is it too much to offer your next 3 1st round picks, Matt Read, and Coburn so that your blueline has an anchor for the next 13 years? If so, we should do whatever is necessary to get him.

So yes, IF Bernier turns out to be the next Lundqvist, no Read and+ is not an overpayment. But Read is at least a somewhat known good whereas Bernier has never had to carry a full NHL workload.

- jmatchett383

if I were a rich man living in a mansion in Cali forn ya?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:03 AM ET
You can argue "if" values all day.

If Seth Jones is really the next Pronger/Weber, is it too much to offer your next 3 1st round picks, Matt Read, and Coburn so that your blueline has an anchor for the next 13 years? If so, we should do whatever is necessary to get him.

So yes, IF Bernier turns out to be the next Lundqvist, no Read and+ is not an overpayment. But Read is at least a somewhat known good whereas Bernier has never had to carry a full NHL workload.

- jmatchett383



Exactly my point. I can't tell you if Read and a 2nd is overpayment, underpayment, a good deal, or whatever. Because I simply don't know enough about Bernier. And I think that's the case for all of us. But like you said, I do know something about Read. Which makes it hard for me to agree to that trade. However if I was the Flyers and I thought that Bernier was the real deal. I'd have to make it. Just hope they're right.
section32
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Raleigh, NC
Joined: 02.15.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:05 AM ET
I personally don't think that Couturier and Schenn will be in the mid 3's. I think it's possible that Schenn's Cap his will be actually smaller then it is now. And Couturier's will be slightly higher then it is now.
- MJL

Homer always over pays.
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:06 AM ET
Exactly my point. I can't tell you if Read and a 2nd is overpayment, underpayment, a good deal, or whatever. Because I simply don't know enough about Bernier. And I think that's the case for all of us. But like you said, I do know something about Read. Which makes it hard for me to agree to that trade. However if I was the Flyers and I thought that Bernier was the real deal. I'd have to make it. Just hope they're right.
- MJL

I guess the good thing is that when Hexy takes over he will be familiar with his starting goalie
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 20 @ 9:06 AM ET
Exactly my point. I can't tell you if Read and a 2nd is overpayment, underpayment, a good deal, or whatever. Because I simply don't know enough about Bernier. And I think that's the case for all of us. But like you said, I do know something about Read. Which makes it hard for me to agree to that trade. However if I was the Flyers and I thought that Bernier was the real deal. I'd have to make it. Just hope they're right.
- MJL


That's why you shouldn't (in my eyes) trade a known good (unless it's a bad/damaged known good) as well as another unknown good (11th pick) for a different unknown good in Bernier. I'd do Read, only due to his upcoming UFA status, but no more. But more than that, I'd have to walk and just go a different route.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:09 AM ET
That's why you shouldn't (in my eyes) trade a known good (unless it's a bad/damaged known good) as well as another unknown good (11th pick) for a different unknown good in Bernier. I'd do Read, only due to his upcoming UFA status, but no more. But more than that, I'd have to walk and just go a different route.
- jmatchett383



Well that's where obviously the Scouting departement and Pro Personell talent evaluators come into play. They have to make educated projections sometimes. I personally wouldn't let Read's upcoming UFA status factor into it.
section32
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Raleigh, NC
Joined: 02.15.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:09 AM ET
PK Subban's bridge deal was 2 years at 2.875M. Who was projected higher in the draft is irrelevant at this point.
- MJL

And we were talking an OS to Subban for sick money.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jun 20 @ 9:12 AM ET
How much are we paying Letang next year?
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:13 AM ET
How much are we paying Letang next year?
- NickTheKid87

7.5 mill for 8 years
moylander
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jun 20 @ 9:14 AM ET
That's why you shouldn't (in my eyes) trade a known good (unless it's a bad/damaged known good) as well as another unknown good (11th pick) for a different unknown good in Bernier. I'd do Read, only due to his upcoming UFA status, but no more. But more than that, I'd have to walk and just go a different route.
- jmatchett383


Thats the reason I truly do like the Ryan for Coby and 11. Ryan is the 'known' best player in that deal by a landslide. I also think anaheim would never accept the deal as is for the same reason.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jun 20 @ 9:15 AM ET
7.5 mill for 8 years
- vejim


Thanks, vejames.
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:16 AM ET
Thats the reason I truly do like the Ryan for Coby and 11. Ryan is the 'known' best player in that deal by a landslide. I also think anaheim would never except the deal as is for the same reason.
- moylander

but isnt Ryan a FA next year?
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:16 AM ET
Exactly my point. I can't tell you if Read and a 2nd is overpayment, underpayment, a good deal, or whatever. Because I simply don't know enough about Bernier. And I think that's the case for all of us. But like you said, I do know something about Read. Which makes it hard for me to agree to that trade. However if I was the Flyers and I thought that Bernier was the real deal. I'd have to make it. Just hope they're right.
- MJL


your spot on....when we are talking about hype and no real track record ....you hope you scouting staff has it right.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:16 AM ET
Homer always over pays.
- section32



Just looking at that comment that I made earlier, In hindsight I think saying that Couturier's will only be slightly higher is innacurate. Probably raise by somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.2M or so from his current cap hit. That's not a slight raise from his current Cap hit.
moylander
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jun 20 @ 9:16 AM ET
but isnt Ryan a FA next year?
- vejim


2 more years at ~$5 mil AAV. I think he'd stay in philly based on what he's said in the past.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jun 20 @ 9:17 AM ET
Thats the reason I truly do like the Ryan for Coby and 11. Ryan is the 'known' best player in that deal by a landslide. I also think anaheim would never accept the deal as is for the same reason.
- moylander


I think you're grossly underrating Coburn and/or overrating Ryan.
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:17 AM ET
Thanks, vejames.
- NickTheKid87

sure Kid
cmr.266
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 06.07.2013

Jun 20 @ 9:20 AM ET
I think you're grossly underrating Coburn and/or overrating Ryan.
- NickTheKid87


I'll tell you what's not overrated - that 11th pick. I'd be pretty unhappy letting that pick go.
nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:21 AM ET
Did we trade 12 years worth of second rounders for the next bobby and bernier yet?
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:21 AM ET
The big problem with Bryzgalov.....

"it's not you....it's me" or is it me?

with the success that Bobrovsky has had this past year....I really wonder if the lack of attention the Flyers seem to pay to their own zone (either by system or personnel) is the reason behind Bryz's average play?......this becomes a monumentel issue when deciding his fait....or if the Flyers spend more assets to aquire Bernier are we really addressing the wrong issue?

I mean seriously....Did Bob really just figure it out this year? or should Holmgren take a long hard look in the mirror?
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:23 AM ET
Just looking at that comment that I made earlier, In hindsight I think saying that Couturier's will only be slightly higher is innacurate. Probably raise by somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.2M or so from his current cap hit. That's not a slight raise from his current Cap hit.
- MJL


It may depend entirely on this year coming up.
cmr.266
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 06.07.2013

Jun 20 @ 9:24 AM ET
The big problem with Bryzgalov.....

"it's not you....it's me" or is it me?

with the success that Bobrovsky has had this past year....I really wonder if the lack of attention the Flyers seem to pay to their own zone (either by system or personnel) is the reason behind Bryz's average play?......this becomes a monumentel issue when deciding his fait....or if the Flyers spend more assets to aquire Bernier are we really addressing the wrong issue?

I mean seriously....Did Bob really just figure it out this year? or should Holmgren to a long hard look in the mirror?

- landros 2


Probably a little of both. But whether you believe in Bryz or not, you're handcuffed to that cap hit until 2020.
youarewrong
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 07.07.2010

Jun 20 @ 9:24 AM ET
Two issues. What are they trading for Byfuglien? And does that fit into the Cap?
- MJL


I think it would be Laughton and a 2nd next year considereing how much his value dropped. So I know guys are out of order, but the below would make us 2.6 million UNDER the cap, not including a Pronger LTIR.


FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Jay Rosehill ($0.675m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Simon Gagne ($2.500m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m)
Michael Raffl ($0.793m) / Ben Holmstrom ($0.600m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m)
Alex Nichushkin ($1.000m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.000m) / Mark Streit ($5.250m)
Erik Gustafsson ($1.001m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m) / Dustin Byfuglien ($5.200m)
Bruno Gervais ($0.825m) /
GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Bernier ($3.000m)
Tim Thomas ($2.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)
Buyout: Danny Briere ($0.000m)
Buyout: Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
Buried: Chris Pronger ($4.016m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,452,356; BONUSES: $2,800,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $2,647,644


vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:25 AM ET
The big problem with Bryzgalov.....

"it's not you....it's me" or is it me?

with the success that Bobrovsky has had this past year....I really wonder if the lack of attention the Flyers seem to pay to their own zone (either by system or personnel) is the reason behind Bryz's average play?......this becomes a monumentel issue when deciding his fait....or if the Flyers spend more assets to aquire Bernier are we really addressing the wrong issue?

I mean seriously....Did Bob really just figure it out this year? or should Holmgren take a long hard look in the mirror?

- landros 2

the mirror will crack by Christmas
nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jun 20 @ 9:26 AM ET
The big problem with Bryzgalov.....

"it's not you....it's me" or is it me?

with the success that Bobrovsky has had this past year....I really wonder if the lack of attention the Flyers seem to pay to their own zone (either by system or personnel) is the reason behind Bryz's average play?......this becomes a monumentel issue when deciding his fait....or if the Flyers spend more assets to aquire Bernier are we really addressing the wrong issue?

I mean seriously....Did Bob really just figure it out this year? or should Holmgren take a long hard look in the mirror?

- landros 2

Hire a Dave tippet like coach and see if he looks better
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