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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Emery and Other Goalie Options
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hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Jun 17 @ 11:10 PM ET
Such a tough question to answer, unknown ceiling over experience. If everything is equal (contract length and value relatively close), I'm choosing Bobby Lu. Mainly because I know this guy for sure is going to be great in the locker room and nothing in the media is going to faze him. At 34, still think there is enough in the tank to be effective. My number 2 choice is Bernier followed by Halak.

I'd be satisfied with Bobby Lu or Bernier with Mason.

- ravishingone


i'd go with lu over bernier, all things being equal. halak next. then bernier.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jun 17 @ 11:13 PM ET
I would strongly consider offer-sheeting Bernier. I mentioned Svedberg in the blog today, because he's a young, NHL-unproven goalie that I'm high on.
- bmeltzer

I think Bill's gone off the deep end.

Far too small a sample size on a team that plays great team D. Not sure I'd want to put up a significant number of picks as collateral for him at this stage in his career.Plus if Read is going to be hard to afford...
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 17 @ 11:13 PM ET
I would strongly consider offer-sheeting Bernier. I mentioned Svedberg in the blog today, because he's a young, NHL-unproven goalie that I'm high on.
- bmeltzer


Broad St Hockey did a good job outlining how one would work. But, I still think that the Kings would match, despite having Quick locked in...I also think that LA moves him at the draft, to avoid exactly that type of situation.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 17 @ 11:14 PM ET
i'd go with lu over bernier, all things being equal. halak next. then bernier.
- hammarby31

halak is interesting. with the lu over bernier, is that "all things being equal" aimed primarily at the cost of acquisition, or do you mean contract as well?
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 17 @ 11:15 PM ET
I think Bill's gone off the deep end.

Far too small a sample size on a team that plays great team D. Not sure I'd want to put up a significant number of picks as collateral for him art this stage in his career.

- hereticpride


http://www.broadstreethoc...rnier-kings-flyers-goalie

According to the RFA compensation scale in the new CBA, the Flyers could offer Bernier up to $3.364 million per season and they'd only owe the Kings a single, measly second round pick in return. That kind of money, along with a Bryzgalov buyout, would save the Flyers $2.3 million against the cap immediately next season and would free of them of the uncertainty that comes with giving long-term deals to goaltenders. If things didn't work out with Bernier, they wouldn't be tied to him for the next decade. They'd be tied to him until the summer of 2016, and if push came to shove, a $3.3 million cap hit is certainly tradable -- unlike Bryz's contract.

Would that be enough to lure Bernier from L.A.? I'd think so. Again, there's virtually no long-term opportunity for him in Los Angeles and he wants to play now. He'd be earning nearly $2 million more than the Kings would be giving him and he'd have an opportunity to show what he's made of with a team that would probably give him 60 starts next year.

Would it be enough to keep the Kings from matching? Dean Lombardi and Co. already have Quick locked up for $5.8 million per season through 2023. They probably wouldn't be all that comfortable with paying Bernier over $3 million for the next three years. With a $64 million cap, paying your goalies nearly $9 million per season is outrageous. No team in the league, as far as I can think, pays their goaltenders that much money.
ravishingone
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 06.30.2007

Jun 17 @ 11:16 PM ET
i'd go with lu over bernier, all things being equal. halak next. then bernier.
- hammarby31


Halak did have a great run with the Habs in the playoffs in '10. I know I may be off, but I think Halak will cost you more then Bernier in a trade. Maybe because I was never sold on Brian Elliot for some reason.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 17 @ 11:19 PM ET
Halak did have a great run with the Habs in the playoffs in '10. I know I may be off, but I think Halak will cost you more then Bernier in a trade. Maybe because I was never sold on Brian Elliot for some reason.
- ravishingone

i could see that being the case as well. the blues gave up a decent amount for him if i remember correctly.

and god damn that run he had. definitely spoiled the pens best chance so far at another one. he was a friggin wall for an otherwise poopty habs team
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 17 @ 11:20 PM ET
http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/9/4409966/jonathan-bernier-kings-flyers-goalie

According to the RFA compensation scale in the new CBA, the Flyers could offer Bernier up to $3.364 million per season and they'd only owe the Kings a single, measly second round pick in return. That kind of money, along with a Bryzgalov buyout, would save the Flyers $2.3 million against the cap immediately next season and would free of them of the uncertainty that comes with giving long-term deals to goaltenders. If things didn't work out with Bernier, they wouldn't be tied to him for the next decade. They'd be tied to him until the summer of 2016, and if push came to shove, a $3.3 million cap hit is certainly tradable -- unlike Bryz's contract.

Would that be enough to lure Bernier from L.A.? I'd think so. Again, there's virtually no long-term opportunity for him in Los Angeles and he wants to play now. He'd be earning nearly $2 million more than the Kings would be giving him and he'd have an opportunity to show what he's made of with a team that would probably give him 60 starts next year.

Would it be enough to keep the Kings from matching? Dean Lombardi and Co. already have Quick locked up for $5.8 million per season through 2023. They probably wouldn't be all that comfortable with paying Bernier over $3 million for the next three years. With a $64 million cap, paying your goalies nearly $9 million per season is outrageous. No team in the league, as far as I can think, pays their goaltenders that much money.

- Jsaquella


makes perfect sense to me, regardless of the fact that i find offer sheets in bad taste.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jun 17 @ 11:20 PM ET
despite the extremely low success rate of this type of acquisition method?
- hammarby31


Yes, because the Kings are in a lose-lose situation if it even comes to an offer sheet for Bernier at $3.3 million. LA currently hast just 14 players signed to contracts for next season with $11.8 million of open cap space under the ceiling. They have to re-sign Voynov this off-season.

If a team offer-sheets Bernier for a $3.36 million cap hit and the Kings match, LA would have $9.1 million of cap space tied up next year between Quick and Bernier alone (and would be prohibited from trading Bernier for a full year).

If LA declines to match at a $3.36 million, all they get is a 2014 second-round pick as compensation.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 17 @ 11:21 PM ET
Brodie Brazil ‏@brodiebrazilCSN 1m

Breaking News: Logan Couture has just agreed to a contract extension with #sjsharks
ravishingone
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 06.30.2007

Jun 17 @ 11:24 PM ET
Yes, because the Kings are in a lose-lose situation if it even comes to an offer sheet for Bernier at $3.3 million. LA currently hast just 14 players signed to contracts for next season with $11.8 million of open cap space under the ceiling. They have to re-sign Voynov this off-season.

If a team offer-sheets Bernier for a $3.36 million cap hit and the Kings match, LA would have $9.1 million of cap space tied up next year between Quick and Bernier alone (and would be prohibited from trading Bernier for a full year).

If LA declines to match at a $3.36 million, all they get is a 2014 second-round pick as compensation.

- bmeltzer


Gotta believe Voynov is going to get paid. I would be shocked to see him sign a bridge deal with the way the UFA market is shaking out. Yes, I know he is a RFA, but Jay Feaster is just out there lurking.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Jun 17 @ 11:24 PM ET
halak is interesting. with the lu over bernier, is that "all things being equal" aimed primarily at the cost of acquisition, or do you mean contract as well?
- stayinthefnnet


primarily cost. can't imagine that lu and bernier would end up with a roughly equal deal no matter where they went.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jun 17 @ 11:24 PM ET
makes perfect sense to me, regardless of the fact that i find offer sheets in bad taste.
- stayinthefnnet


Restricted free agency isn't free agency at all if offer sheets are never a viable option.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jun 17 @ 11:27 PM ET
Is this a bridge Homer really wants to burn tho?
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 17 @ 11:28 PM ET
Restricted free agency isn't free agency at all if offer sheets are never a viable option.
- bmeltzer

totally understand it. like i said, i realize i dont have a logical leg to stand on here. i guess i just like to see teams be able to lock up their young talent.

as dumb as it sounds, maybe if it was a more regularly practiced approach i wouldnt have such an uneasiness about it.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Jun 17 @ 11:28 PM ET
Yes, because the Kings are in a lose-lose situation if it even comes to an offer sheet for Bernier at $3.3 million. LA currently hast just 14 players signed to contracts for next season with $11.8 million of open cap space under the ceiling. They have to re-sign Voynov this off-season.

If a team offer-sheets Bernier for a $3.36 million cap hit and the Kings match, LA would have $9.1 million of cap space tied up next year between Quick and Bernier alone (and would be prohibited from trading Bernier for a full year).

If LA declines to match at a $3.36 million, all they get is a 2014 second-round pick as compensation.

- bmeltzer


so it seems likely LA wouldn't match, but is Bernier worth 3.36 when they're already strapped? seems like an overpayment, even if it's just for one year. if they covet him that badly, i'd be shocked if they didn't tender the OS. Homer could probably get an assurance from Lombardi ahead of time given their ties.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jun 17 @ 11:29 PM ET
I think Bill's gone off the deep end.

Far too small a sample size on a team that plays great team D. Not sure I'd want to put up a significant number of picks as collateral for him at this stage in his career.Plus if Read is going to be hard to afford...

- hereticpride


Check the compensation scale. The Flyers could sign Bernier to an offer sheet carrying a $3.36 million cap hit -- which would odious for LA to match with only 14 players currently signed for next season and under $12 million of cap space to work with -- and the only compensation would be a 2014 second round pick. Not multiple picks. Not a first-round pick. One second round pick would be it.

This is a situation where an offer sheet would stand a pretty good chance of working. If not, well, there are other goalie options out there as well.

hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jun 17 @ 11:32 PM ET
Check the compensation scale. The Flyers could sign Bernier to an offer sheet carrying a $3.36 million cap hit -- which would odious for LA to match with only 14 players currently signed for next season and under $12 million of cap space to work with -- and the only compensation would be a 2014 second round pick. Not multiple picks. Not a first-round pick. One second round pick would be it.

This is a situation where an offer sheet would stand a pretty good chance of working. If not, well, there are other goalie options out there as well.

- bmeltzer

Yeah, I didn't realize the scale had changed. I was thinking it would be at least 2 second rounders. Sorry to have doubted you.

The only worry is burning yet another bridge with a team via offer sheet. I've got to think they want an NHL ready player.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 17 @ 11:32 PM ET
Check the compensation scale. The Flyers could sign Bernier to an offer sheet carrying a $3.36 million cap hit -- which would odious for LA to match with only 14 players currently signed for next season and under $12 million of cap space to work with -- and the only compensation would be a 2014 second round pick. Not multiple picks. Not a first-round pick. One second round pick would be it.

This is a situation where an offer sheet would stand a pretty good chance of working. If not, well, there are other goalie options out there as well.

- bmeltzer


I still think LA trades him before it gets to that point. If he is as coveted as we're led to believe, I'm sure they can hammer out a trade at the draft, before FA even starts
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jun 17 @ 11:33 PM ET
Is this a bridge Homer really wants to burn tho?
- hereticpride


Nature of the business. When the Flyers were trying to sneak Randy Freakin' Jones through recall waivers a few years because they were racked with injuries on the blueline, did ol' pal Lombardi do Homer a favor or did he claim Jones for LA, leaving the Flyers with half of Jones' cap hit?



Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 17 @ 11:33 PM ET
Nature of the business. When the Flyers were trying to sneak Randy Freakin' Jones through recall waivers a few years because they were racked with injuries on the blueline, did ol' pal Lombardi do Homer a favor or did he claim Jones for LA, leaving the Flyers with half of Jones' cap hit?
- bmeltzer

stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 17 @ 11:35 PM ET
I still think LA trades him before it gets to that point. If he is as coveted as we're led to believe, I'm sure they can hammer out a trade at the draft, before FA even starts
- Jsaquella

haha id move a second for him gladly.

oh wait...
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 17 @ 11:37 PM ET
haha id move a second for him gladly.

oh wait...

- stayinthefnnet


Yeah, feels strange knowing that the Flyers even have a second rounder. Since Holmgren became the GM, the Flyers have picked twice in round two. Getting Kevin Marshall, instead of PK Subban, and Anthony Stolarz last year
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jun 17 @ 11:38 PM ET
@DLEED is twicked off tonite...posted this in 2010

http://thehockeyguys.net/...ou-have-been-waiting-for/
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 17 @ 11:40 PM ET
Yeah, feels strange knowing that the Flyers even have a second rounder. Since Holmgren became the GM, the Flyers have picked twice in round two. Getting Kevin Marshall, instead of PK Subban, and Anthony Stolarz last year
- Jsaquella

yeah. oh well, every GM has draft errors. its the one aspect of the job i am a little more forgiving about as far as errors go.

i loathe subban, but the kid has talent to spare. way too early to lean one way or another on stolarz i guess.

but yeah, all those deadline deals dont seem so great now. the pens really have nothing draft wise, although they could make a splash when letang forces their hand
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