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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Couturier's Development and Future Potential
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TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jun 11 @ 11:23 AM ET
Actually, it seems that most of the fanbase is trying to avoid that sort of "perpetual cycle" by being unwilling to consider trading Couturier unless somebody overpays for him.

I doubt there's any regular poster on this board that really feels that the Flyers could trade Couturier for a Norris level defenseman straight up.

Me, I am open to trading him. I'm not eager to do so, nor would I be out there shopping him around. But in the right deal I'd certainly listen. Dealing in absolutes is a fool's game. Couturier could have a Patrice Bergeron type ceiling, which would make him more valuable than Keith Yandle.

But he could also top out at being a good defensive third line center, who score 12-15 goals a year, and obviously that is worth trading for a guy like Yandle.

Right now, nobody knows what he will end up as. But enough teams have asked to make people feel that there's enough that seem him as a potential Bergeron to sell him off while he's at his lowest value.

- Jsaquella


As usual, the voice of reason!

So I'm curious about your opinion on this. Let's assume that teams that have young, future Norris calibar defenseman (PK, AP, OEL, other youngsters good enough to be acronymed) are not going trade them.

Also assume that teams are unlikely to trade even a Shattenkirk kind of player unless they are blown away (assume they want Couturier+)

Is there a next-tier prospect with that type of ceiling that you would trade Couturier for? I mean someone that is < 1 year away like a Hamilton. Now obviously there is risk, but maybe that is the only way you get a future 1st line stud. But is there someone you'd do it for?

youarewrong
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 07.07.2010

Jun 11 @ 11:25 AM ET
I just don't see a "possible" 18-22 goal scorer and 45-50 point player as someone we absolutely need to hold onto if it means going into another season with these pylons on defense.

I see nothing in Couturier's offensive game that says he can become more then a Michael Handzus on the low side to a Rod Brind'Amour on the high side. I think right now I would be okay with moving him for a top puck moving D-man.

TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jun 11 @ 11:26 AM ET
That's my point. If the Flyers feel they need to add a piece to win a Cup, then go for it. Unfortunately, they're probably about 6 away. But the Kings kept their 2 core pieces in Kopitar and Brown, and got lucky that Voynov paved the way for Jack Johnson to be traded. So yes, if you feel you're just a couple moves from winning a Cup, you do that. The Flyers may be there in 3-4 years.
- jmatchett383


I agree, but more importantly, hopefully Snider/Holmgren share this perspective! I really doubt they'd settle for 3-4 years. I'm hoping for a 2-3 year plan myself. At least it's Holmgren and not Clarke
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 11 @ 11:26 AM ET
As usual, the voice of reason!

So I'm curious about your opinion on this. Let's assume that teams that have young, future Norris calibar defenseman (PK, AP, OEL, other youngsters good enough to be acronymed) are not going trade them.

Also assume that teams are unlikely to trade even a Shattenkirk kind of player unless they are blown away (assume they want Couturier+)

Is there a next-tier prospect with that type of ceiling that you would trade Couturier for? I mean someone that is < 1 year away like a Hamilton. Now obviously there is risk, but maybe that is the only way you get a future 1st line stud. But is there someone you'd do it for?

- TheGreat28


Off the top of my head, there's probably a kid or two out there I'd strongly consider. I'd have to do a little more homework to give an extensive list.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jun 11 @ 11:31 AM ET
I just don't see a "possible" 18-22 goal scorer and 45-50 point player as someone we absolutely need to hold onto if it means going into another season with these pylons on defense.

I see nothing in Couturier's offensive game that says he can become more then a Michael Handzus on the low side to a Rod Brind'Amour on the high side. I think right now I would be okay with moving him for a top puck moving D-man.

- youarewrong

It's not the possible 45-50 points that's supposed to impress you, it's the ceiling of his defensive game when he's already the best defensive forward on the team at age 20. His upper limit is a middle-class man's Jonathon Toews at this point.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jun 11 @ 11:31 AM ET
I'm with you on all of the above. I think an UFA like Grant Clitsome fits into that minor tweak / cheaper option to augment the defense.
- Comeback Rico

You just want the jersey, admit it!
youarewrong
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 07.07.2010

Jun 11 @ 11:32 AM ET
I was not in the boat of thinking that they should've gotten more for JVR. I was however in the past, not willing to trade Couturier for Subban. I was wrong about that one.
As far as Read for Bernier. Is that how you make a trade? Based on perceived value around the League? Or do you look at the value to your team, and your teams needs? Right now, under the current circumstances, I would not trade Read for Bernier. That's not to say that Bernier isn't going to go on to be a very good Goalie. Truthfully, none of us really know that for sure, myself included. But I know what Matt Read is, and his value to the Flyers. And I also would rather just see what we already have in Mason, if they're going in a different direction away from Bryzgalov. I don't see why they should give up more quality assets to get Bernier.

- MJL


I dont think Read's value for the Flyers is much higher then league wide. Lets face it, the reason he is such a high value is because of his current contract. Right now your getting 2-3rd line player for 4th line player prices. Next year that bargin value goes out the window, and everyone knows it. You will get a 2nd-3rd line player for 2nd-3rd line money.

So is a 2nd-3rd line player worth a current back-up goalie with high potential... When your goaltending situation is this questionable I say yes.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jun 11 @ 11:33 AM ET
Off the top of my head, there's probably a kid or two out there I'd strongly consider. I'd have to do a little more homework to give an extensive list.
- Jsaquella


OK, fair point. The names are not as important. I find it interesting that you'd at least consider it. I would too, though not without a lot of thought and probably some angst. But I'm not opposed to a Richards or Carter type trade where we get a B Schenn or Jake caliber defenseman coming back. I suspect a lot of folks wouldn't take the gamble tho.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 11 @ 11:35 AM ET
It's not the possible 45-50 points that's supposed to impress you, it's the ceiling of his defensive game when he's already the best defensive forward on the team at age 20. His upper limit is a middle-class man's Jonathon Toews at this point.
- JAKEw1234

I disagree wholeheartedly... His upper limit IS Jonathon Towes. If he can put it all together, offense, defense, commitment, etc... he has every chance to be the same type of offensively and defensively dominant player that Towes is.

Had Towes played his first two seasons with primarily fourth liners (due to an over abundance of skilled forwards) he wouldnt have put up solid numbers early on.

Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 11 @ 11:35 AM ET
I dont think Read's value for the Flyers is much higher then league wide. Lets face it, the reason he is such a high value is because of his current contract. Right now your getting 2-3rd line player for 4th line player prices. Next year that bargin value goes out the window, and everyone knows it. You will get a 2nd-3rd line player for 2nd-3rd line money.

So is a 2nd-3rd line player worth a current back-up goalie with high potential... When your goaltending situation is this questionable I say yes.

- youarewrong


What Read is, is a solid two way player, who can score 20-25 goals, play all three forward positions well, can play on the PP & as a PP point man and who is an exceptional PKer.

That's not a bad asset.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 11 @ 11:37 AM ET
What Read is, is a solid two way player, who can score 20-25 goals, play all three forward positions well, can play on the PP & as a PP point man and who is an exceptional PKer.

That's not a bad asset.

- Jsaquella

I bet if we actively shopped Read.. 29 teams would be interested.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jun 11 @ 11:37 AM ET
It's not the possible 45-50 points that's supposed to impress you, it's the ceiling of his defensive game when he's already the best defensive forward on the team at age 20. His upper limit is a middle-class man's Jonathon Toews at this point.
- JAKEw1234


So you are saying the best defensive forward is more important than the best puck-moving, 2-way defenseman?

Obviously I'm assuming that if they trade him, they are getting back a 1st pairing player back, and that player would automatically be their best defenseman.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 11 @ 11:38 AM ET
OK, fair point. The names are not as important. I find it interesting that you'd at least consider it. I would too, though not without a lot of thought and probably some angst. But I'm not opposed to a Richards or Carter type trade where we get a B Schenn or Jake caliber defenseman coming back. I suspect a lot of folks wouldn't take the gamble tho.
- TheGreat28


If we're talking kids like Ryan Murray or Griffin Reinhard, I'd have interest, but I'd want more, simply because Couturier's shown he can play in the NHL and be, at least, a very good defensive center.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 11 @ 11:39 AM ET
I bet if we actively shopped Read.. 29 teams would be interested.
- jak521


Absolutely, even if he ended up with a $3.5mm price tag, there'd still be more interested than not.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 11 @ 11:39 AM ET
So you are saying the best defensive forward is more important than the best puck-moving, 2-way defenseman?

Obviously I'm assuming that if they trade him, they are getting back a 1st pairing player back, and that player would automatically be their best defenseman.

- TheGreat28

I think that if that were the case... we would make that deal.. But trading Couts for a guy like Smid is a mistake. Hell, trading him for Edler isnt ideal to me.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 11 @ 11:41 AM ET
So you are saying the best defensive forward is more important than the best puck-moving, 2-way defenseman?
- TheGreat28


Yes, Datsyuk is.
Don'tForgetTocchet
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ground Zero Brooklyn
Joined: 02.08.2007

Jun 11 @ 11:42 AM ET
Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Couturier's Development and Future Potential
- bmeltzer




ty bill
dingo8urbaby
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.02.2009

Jun 11 @ 11:42 AM ET
Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Couturier's Development and Future Potential
- bmeltzer


There is no question that the Flyers expected too much too soon but I think it had more to do with Briere spending along stretch out of the line up. Schenn and Couturier were going to have big roles anyway but Briere's injury made their roles even bigger. I don't think anyone here is giving them an F as far as grading. It was just a season to forget.

My concerns are faceoffs for both players. I'd like to get some off the weight off of Giroux in terms of faceoffs taken. From my understanding Couturier was a good faceoff man in junior, he's got to make that a specialty again. I thought he was much better at the dot his first season, then his second.

I think I might be in the minority that Brayden Schenn will be a better all around player then Sean Couturier but I feel all the pressure is on Couturier because many feel differently then I do. I feel Schenn can be the more physical player. I feel Schenn is more willing to go to the more dirty areas. I feel Schenn will be the more gifted offensive player. Couturier is easily by the far the better defensive forward but I feel Schenn could be better defensively then what he has shown.

I don't think you'll see as many fights from Sean Couturier. I think you'll see him get get pushed around and knocked off the puck easily for a little while longer but I'm sure that will change with confidence and building that tall lanky frame.

These are our center pieces along with Giroux. I wouldn't get rid of any of these guys for nothing! Not even Shea Weber.
Comeback Rico
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 11 @ 11:43 AM ET
You just want the jersey, admit it!
- coffee junkie

Not my fault I can only afford to have the first 4 letters sewn on
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jun 11 @ 11:43 AM ET
What Read is, is a solid two way player, who can score 20-25 goals, play all three forward positions well, can play on the PP & as a PP point man and who is an exceptional PKer.

That's not a bad asset.

- Jsaquella


I completely agree with this assessment and I think he was undervaluing Read a bit. And by the way, Read is my second fav Flyer, so obviously I think highly of him.

But considering what Colorado paid for Varlamov (11th pick which ended up being Forsberg and 2nd), and that Varlamov is a good comparable for Bernier at this point, it probably takes Read+ to get Bernier.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 11 @ 11:46 AM ET
I completely agree with this assessment and I think he was undervaluing Read a bit. And by the way, Read is my second fav Flyer, so obviously I think highly of him.

But considering what Colorado paid for Varlamov (11th pick which ended up being Forsberg and 2nd), and that Varlamov is a good comparable for Bernier at this point, it probably takes Read+ to get Bernier.

- TheGreat28


Probable...But at the same time, Greg Sherman is a moron
MrBigglesworth
Location: PA
Joined: 01.30.2008

Jun 11 @ 11:47 AM ET
Halak is possibly the one who gets dealt. Does not have a good relationship with Hitchcock.

No interest in Elliott.

- bradleyc4



Either Halak or Elliott would be upgrades. At least Elliott has league leading stats every-other-season
MrBigglesworth
Location: PA
Joined: 01.30.2008

Jun 11 @ 11:47 AM ET
You just want the jersey, admit it!
- coffee junkie



I'd love to see Clitsome dangle

but seriously, howabout Ference, Babchuk, Fistric, Ryan Whitney all viable candidates to shore up the d
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jun 11 @ 11:52 AM ET
If we're talking kids like Ryan Murray or Griffin Reinhard, I'd have interest, but I'd want more, simply because Couturier's shown he can play in the NHL and be, at least, a very good defensive center.
- Jsaquella


Again, we're on the same page and I also like those two names. To me, the "formula" is always something along the lines of Past Performance + (Potential * Probability of reaching Potential). I guess Hockey's Future kinda does this with their ratings.

So given the risk with Reinhard or Murray, the Flyers would need more back. Really, like the Carter/Richards trades.
Joel_Eh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Panel member of L'Antichambre, ON
Joined: 01.26.2012

Jun 11 @ 11:52 AM ET
I dont get all the Buyfuglien hate...

One article about him being 302lbs (which i dont buy -- unless they fudged his weight going into the season...nobody gains 35lbs in an nhl season) and his value is essentially less than Douglas Murrays.....

It doesnt seem like his attitude is bad enough to cause that.

i dont get it.

EDIT: i know im going back to page 3 comments
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