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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Couturier's Development and Future Potential
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jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 12 @ 11:19 AM ET
My roster:

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Nathan Horton ($4.500m)
Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Simon Gagne ($2.500m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m) / Scott Laughton ($1.107m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m)
Jay Rosehill ($0.675m) / Tye McGinn ($0.775m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.000m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Erik Gustafsson ($0.851m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Bruno Gervais ($0.825m) / Marc-Andre Bourdon ($0.613m)
Chris Pronger ($4.941m) /
GOALTENDERS
Ray Emery ($2.500m)
Steve Mason ($1.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)
Buyout: Danny Briere ($0.000m)
Buyout: Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $67,096,095; BONUSES: $2,800,000
CAP SPACE (25-man roster): $3,905

- NickTheKid87


I think you would have even more room considering Emery is not likely to get 2.5 mil after making 1.14 this year... I could see him tops 1.75.

If I had my choice..

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Mason Raymond ($4.000m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Simon Gagne ($1.700m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m) / Scott Laughton ($1.107m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m)
/ Tye McGinn ($0.775m) / Jay Rosehill ($0.675m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.000m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Erik Gustafsson ($0.851m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Bruno Gervais ($0.825m) / Chris Pronger ($4.941m)
GOALTENDERS
Ray Emery ($1.500m)
Steve Mason ($1.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)
Buyout: Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
Buyout: Danny Briere ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,183,595; BONUSES: $2,800,000
CAP SPACE (24-man roster): $2,916,405
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 12 @ 11:20 AM ET
Right, I'm not going to let stats change how I feel about a player when I watch him play, but I've seen the Corsi metric referenced a few times on this site and am curious what it's all about.
- wolfhounds



People fear change and are quick to dismiss what they can't wrap their heads around.

Analytics in sports is here to stay, just like fitness testing, advanced nutrition, comprehensive/systematic scouting, video, and all the other advances in player evaluation over the decades. Some of them seemed far-fetched at first, but today they're all tools that scouts and managers employ to get the best results possible and to limit mistakes.

Analytics aren't meant to replace first-hand observation (old eyeball test)... they're meant to supplement it. No one set of eyes is capable of following everything that goes on during play, and unless you have a photographic memory, you're less liable to remember the mountain of routine plays than you are to remember that one awesome shift, sweet display of skill, or that one terrible mistake.

That's just human nature.

The numbers serve as a dispassionate record to fall back on, an account of all those routine plays you can't remember, to help remove many of the prejudices, emotions and assumptions that tend to cloud our judgement.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jun 12 @ 11:21 AM ET
So the Cap strapped team is going to take on more money? And be stuck with a player who won't play for them. Taking up a contract slot?
- MJL


Oh, and think of it this way. Who will the Islanders, Winnipeg, Devils etc have to add this year just to get to the Floor? Who did teams add last year because they were REQUIRED to reach the floor?

You don't think they overpaid or took on a player they would not have otherwise because they had no choice but to add salary reach the floor?

1 million for 20 million of cap space isn't necessary a bad business move.

OR...

Think of it that they are spending 1 million to acquire Matt Read (or whoever the Flyers would trade back).

The Flyers just paid for Raffl. Teams do it all the time.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 12 @ 11:22 AM ET
I think you would have even more room considering Emery is not likely to get 2.5 mil after making 1.14 this year... I could see him tops 1.75.

If I had my choice..

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Mason Raymond ($4.000m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Simon Gagne ($1.700m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m) / Scott Laughton ($1.107m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m)
/ Tye McGinn ($0.775m) / Jay Rosehill ($0.675m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.000m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Erik Gustafsson ($0.851m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Bruno Gervais ($0.825m) / Chris Pronger ($4.941m)
GOALTENDERS
Ray Emery ($1.500m)
Steve Mason ($1.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)
Buyout: Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
Buyout: Danny Briere ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,183,595; BONUSES: $2,800,000
CAP SPACE (24-man roster): $2,916,405

- jak521


Don't like Raymond, especially not at $4M. Not sure of the solution, but I'm not a fan. Maybe Filppula?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 12 @ 11:23 AM ET
People fear change and are quick to dismiss what they can't wrap their heads around.

Analytics in sports is here to stay, just like fitness testing, advanced nutrition, comprehensive/systematic scouting, video, and all the other advances in player evaluation over the decades. Some of them seemed far-fetched at first, but today they're all tools that scouts and managers employ to get the best results possible and to limit mistakes.

Analytics aren't meant to replace first-hand observation (old eyeball test)... they're meant to supplement it. No one set of eyes is capable of following everything that goes on during play, and unless you have a photographic memory, you're less liable to remember the mountain of routine plays than you are to remember that one awesome shift, sweet display of skill, or that one terrible mistake.

That's just human nature.

The numbers serve as a dispassionate record to fall back on, to help remove many of the prejudices, emotions and assumptions that tend to cloud our judgement.

- Tomahawk



I think that is a good way of looking at it. The problem is with the flaws in the analystics. And that far too many people place way too high of a value on them, over actually watching the player play. Analytics is jut the new fad. Top GM's and top scouts use the "eyeball" method.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 12 @ 11:25 AM ET
Don't like Raymond, especially not at $4M. Not sure of the solution, but I'm not a fan. Maybe Filppula?
- jmatchett383

I like Filppula, but not if im bringing back Gags. Im a Raymond fan, but aside from that I think that line would be hell to play against.

Filppula with Read and Couts would be one of the better defensive lines in the game.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 12 @ 11:26 AM ET
Oh, and think of it this way. Who will the Islanders, Winnipeg, Devils etc have to add this year just to get to the Floor? Who did teams add last year because they were REQUIRED to reach the floor?

You don't think they overpaid or took on a player they would not have otherwise because they had no choice but to add salary reach the floor?

1 million for 20 million of cap space isn't necessary a bad business move.

OR...

Think of it that they are spending 1 million to acquire Matt Read (or whoever the Flyers would trade back).

The Flyers just paid for Raffl. Teams do it all the time.

- TheGreat28



Overpaying for a player that is actually going to play, to meet the Cap floor, is a lot better then paying for a player that is never going to play. It's been done once to my knowledge. With the Islanders dealing for Tim Thomas.

And your analogies don't add up to me. How is a team taking on 1M in salary to add 20M in Cap space? The Flyers paid to add a prospect to the Organization.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jun 12 @ 11:27 AM ET
I'd be cool with this if:

1.) Nathan Horton didn't seem so redundant on a line with Scott Hartnell.

2.) Nathan Horton wasn't made of Canadian glass.

- johndewar


I agree with the redundancy and injury risk but they said they want to get bigger up front so it seemed logical. I would actually prefer Ryder to play first line RW because he'd be cheaper and he is less of an injury risk.
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 12 @ 11:27 AM ET
Analytics is jut the new fad. Top GM's and top scouts use the "eyeball" method.



You'd be surprised just how many of them supplement traditional scouting with proprietary analytics.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jun 12 @ 11:29 AM ET
My roster:

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Nathan Horton ($4.500m)
Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Simon Gagne ($2.500m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m) / Scott Laughton ($1.107m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m)
Jay Rosehill ($0.675m) / Tye McGinn ($0.775m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.000m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Erik Gustafsson ($0.851m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Bruno Gervais ($0.825m) / Marc-Andre Bourdon ($0.613m)
Chris Pronger ($4.941m) /
GOALTENDERS
Ray Emery ($2.500m)
Steve Mason ($1.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)
Buyout: Danny Briere ($0.000m)
Buyout: Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $67,096,095; BONUSES: $2,800,000
CAP SPACE (25-man roster): $3,905

- NickTheKid87


I think Voracek has solidified himself on our top line. Horton would carry the RW on line 1B if for some reason he decided not to stay in Boston.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jun 12 @ 11:29 AM ET
I think you would have even more room considering Emery is not likely to get 2.5 mil after making 1.14 this year... I could see him tops 1.75.

If I had my choice..

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Mason Raymond ($4.000m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Simon Gagne ($1.700m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m) / Scott Laughton ($1.107m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m)
/ Tye McGinn ($0.775m) / Jay Rosehill ($0.675m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.000m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Erik Gustafsson ($0.851m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Bruno Gervais ($0.825m) / Chris Pronger ($4.941m)
GOALTENDERS
Ray Emery ($1.500m)
Steve Mason ($1.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)
Buyout: Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
Buyout: Danny Briere ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,183,595; BONUSES: $2,800,000
CAP SPACE (24-man roster): $2,916,405

- jak521


I was being conservative with the salary estimates, didn't want to go too cheap so I went a little above.

Raymond at $4 mill is a deal breaker for me. I like him but idk if he can be a legit top 6 guy.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jun 12 @ 11:30 AM ET
I think Voracek has solidified himself on our top line. Horton would carry the RW on line 1B if for some reason he decided not to stay in Boston.
- JAKEw1234


The thing is, Giroux and Voracek are very similar players. Both have the ability to create space and possess the puck. I think separating them would be a better move for the offense as a whole.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jun 12 @ 11:34 AM ET
You'd be surprised just how many of them supplement traditional scouting with proprietary analytics.
- Tomahawk


Yup. Advanced stats should be embraced. Unless you're going to watch every game a player plays, the "eyeball" method won't do as much good. Besides, some things slip though the cracks that analytics pick up. Advanced stats weren't created so a bunch of people could argue over them, they are helpful.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 12 @ 11:35 AM ET
I was being conservative with the salary estimates, didn't want to go too cheap so I went a little above.

Raymond at $4 mill is a deal breaker for me. I like him but idk if he can be a legit top 6 guy.

- NickTheKid87

I dont look at him as a legit top 6 player... I look for fits on lines.

He is a 20/20 guy for the post part.. but plays a gritty game and has a skill. Is a reliable two way guy to boot.

We will have three lines that roll out pretty seamlessly.

The "1st line" is a true top scoring line with a big body and two top end players.

The "2nd line" has a bit of it all. They all have 20 goal ability, all are defensively sufficient (although it would be nice if Simmonds could step up his d-game) and all play extremely physical.

The "3rd line" would be our best 2-way line that has good scoring touch good speed and excellent defensive awareness.

The 4th line would just piss other teams off on a consistent basis.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jun 12 @ 11:36 AM ET
The thing is, Giroux and Voracek are very similar players. Both have the ability to create space and possess the puck. I think separating them would be a better move for the offense as a whole.
- NickTheKid87

I'm afraid he'll struggle offensively without Giroux's playmaking. They're similar players, but that's part of what makes it fun to watch. Read is similar too, which is why it was entertaining to watch the three of them on the same line. Together, they make the line more of a 1-dimensional force, but it's one of the most effective offensive forces in the league regardless.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jun 12 @ 11:36 AM ET
I agree with the redundancy and injury risk but they said they want to get bigger up front so it seemed logical. I would actually prefer Ryder to play first line RW because he'd be cheaper and he is less of an injury risk.
- NickTheKid87


And I wrote all that even though I like what Horton brings in his game.

I'm just not sure I want to invest money in him.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jun 12 @ 11:37 AM ET
Overpaying for a player that is actually going to play, to meet the Cap floor, is a lot better then paying for a player that is never going to play. It's been done once to my knowledge. With the Islanders dealing for Tim Thomas.

And your analogies don't add up to me. How is a team taking on 1M in salary to add 20M in Cap space? The Flyers paid to add a prospect to the Organization.

- MJL


Pronger is owed 12 million in actually salary over next 4 years, but carries a 20 million cap hit. Flyers pay half, leaving Minnesota (as example) to pay 6 million.

They owe Heatley 5 million, but his cap hit is 7.5 million (I incorrect stated as 5 million before, so the numbers change slightly).

Flyers pay Heatley 5 million + Pronger 6 million = 11 million. They would have paid Pronger 12 million, so they "save" 1 million in cash.

Minnesota pays Pronger 6 million over next 4 years instead of Heatley 5 this year. (better cash flow). The cost is 1 million.

Flyers "save" 20 million - 7.5 million = 12.5 million in cap space over next 4 years.

Minnesota gains 12.5 million in cap dollars over next 5 years (-2.5, 5, 5, 5).
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 12 @ 11:37 AM ET
The thing is, Giroux and Voracek are very similar players. Both have the ability to create space and possess the puck. I think separating them would be a better move for the offense as a whole.
- NickTheKid87

I disagree completely. The two work off of each other beautifully and support each others strengths. Voracek has the ability to possess the puck and find open space and finish. Giroux is a superstar that does every thing well, but looks to feed first.. and Hartnell is dumb.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jun 12 @ 11:38 AM ET
Yup. Advanced stats should be embraced. Unless you're going to watch every game a player plays, the "eyeball" method won't do as much good. Besides, some things slip though the cracks that analytics pick up. Advanced stats weren't created so a bunch of people could argue over them, they are helpful.
- NickTheKid87


Use of advanced stats, in some way, is a must in sports today.

And I think people get mixed up when discussing advanced stats. Stats are used as a piece of the puzzle and not the whole puzzle. The use of advanced statistics is much about finding an edge in the market for talent as it is anything else.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jun 12 @ 11:40 AM ET
anyone who's sick of inveting fantasy rosters might want to wander over to Garth's blog and listen to the Kevin Devine interview. It's mostly draft stuff and is all the way at the bottom of the blog. It auto started for me so you might not have to do more than load the page.

Very interesting assessment of the draft and possible pick movement at the top. He also weighs in a little on team building through player selection.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jun 12 @ 11:40 AM ET
I disagree completely. The two work off of each other beautifully and support each others strengths. Voracek has the ability to possess the puck and find open space and finish. Giroux is a superstar that does every thing well, but looks to feed first.. and Hartnell is dumb.
- jak521


Calling Hartnell "dumb" reminds me of something Jim Fregosi said about John Kruk during the 1993 season.

Someone remarked that John Kruk was fat and appeared to be getting fatter. Fregosi said that "Kruk hits good fat".

Hartnell might be dumb, but he makes it work for him.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 12 @ 11:41 AM ET
Use of advanced stats, in some way, is a must in sports today.

And I think people get mixed up when discussing advanced stats. Stats are used as a piece of the puzzle and not the whole puzzle. The use of advanced statistics is much about finding an edge in the market for talent as it is anything else.

- johndewar

There is no doubting that they help the whole picture, but it is important to realize that a lot of thing that look good on paper dont always look good on ice.

johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jun 12 @ 11:42 AM ET
I'm afraid he'll struggle offensively without Giroux's playmaking. They're similar players, but that's part of what makes it fun to watch. Read is similar too, which is why it was entertaining to watch the three of them on the same line. Together, they make the line more of a 1-dimensional force, but it's one of the most effective offensive forces in the league regardless.
- JAKEw1234


Voracek played pretty well with Brayden Schenn before Voracek was permanently moved up to play with G.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 12 @ 11:42 AM ET
Calling Hartnell "dumb" reminds me of something Jim Fregosi said about John Kruk during the 1993 season.

Someone remarked that John Kruk was fat and appeared to be getting fatter. Fregosi said that "Kruk hits good fat".

Hartnell might be dumb, but he makes it work for him.

- johndewar

He has embraced it as well.. It suits him well.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jun 12 @ 11:43 AM ET
I dont look at him as a legit top 6 player... I look for fits on lines.

He is a 20/20 guy for the post part.. but plays a gritty game and has a skill. Is a reliable two way guy to boot.

We will have three lines that roll out pretty seamlessly.

The "1st line" is a true top scoring line with a big body and two top end players.

The "2nd line" has a bit of it all. They all have 20 goal ability, all are defensively sufficient (although it would be nice if Simmonds could step up his d-game) and all play extremely physical.

The "3rd line" would be our best 2-way line that has good scoring touch good speed and excellent defensive awareness.

The 4th line would just piss other teams off on a consistent basis.

- jak521


Couturier and Schenn might make or break any lineup. If Schenn comes out and puts up 60+ points and Couts racks up 45+ then we're in like Flynn. Otherwise we're pretty much back to last year.
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