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Forums :: Blog World :: Matt Karash: Is the 5th pick really available? And for what? Canes draft thoughts...
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Gossler1
Joined: 07.11.2011

Jun 6 @ 1:01 PM ET
I wouldn't touch him until he proves he is healthy.

How about this instead?
Canes trade a 4th round pick (or similar) to Vancouver for Ballard. This only happens if Vancouver is really looking to get out of his contract for salary cap reasons, i.e. they really are contemplating buying him out. He is
- CarolinaMatt63


Keith Ballard makes a lot of sense. Could also flip McBain to them and help offset the salary increase a bit.

Re: Rutherford and patience with Staal, I don't see it. The franchise feels like they are constantly under pressure to maintain or increase revenue, not to mention make the playoffs. Why not deal for Marc now while his value is at its lowest (assuming the Rangers are willing to move him)?
yaktalksback
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 01.10.2013

Jun 6 @ 1:06 PM ET
Carolina should look at Rajula. The tenacious two way Fin playing in the AHL playoffs so well. He would fit perfect with Ruuttu.

Add the Oilers 7th and Smid or Marcanin (if you want cheaper and younger)

Regardless of if you like that deal or not, the Oilers have the peices + 7th to move to 5. They should be motivated to move ahead of Calgary as they are both after the same type of player.(Large player like Barkov/Monohan)
CrustyRooster
Edmonton Oilers
Location: AB
Joined: 05.22.2013

Jun 6 @ 1:11 PM ET
I think you are asking too much from buffalo and Edmonton. I get that it's what you want but a 7th overall 2nd round pick and a b level prospect should be enough to move down. If Rutherford really likes a guy he knows he can get at 7/8 then you shouldn't need more than that. This draft is hugely deep and you are getting 2 good prospects for a 2-3 spot drop.

It could require that much to move down, but if that's the price tag for either team I would reluctantly stay away. I want the 5th but its not worth giving up that much
notwalnc
Carolina Hurricanes
Joined: 09.29.2006

Jun 6 @ 1:21 PM ET
I think you are asking too much from buffalo and Edmonton. I get that it's what you want but a 7th overall 2nd round pick and a b level prospect should be enough to move down. If Rutherford really likes a guy he knows he can get at 7/8 then you shouldn't need more than that. This draft is hugely deep and you are getting 2 good prospects for a 2-3 spot drop.

It could require that much to move down, but if that's the price tag for either team I would reluctantly stay away. I want the 5th but its not worth giving up that much

- CrustyRooster


JR's stated desires seem to be:

1) Take what he wants at #5.
2) Trade down. Get something he needs, and be okay with who he got at #7 or later.

B level prospects and 2nd round picks aren't really a need that would justify settling for someone over getting the guy he wants. It's the same reason teams will be trying to trade up. Top 5 and 6-12 seem to be on different tiers.
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes
Joined: 09.27.2005

Jun 6 @ 1:24 PM ET
I think you are asking too much from buffalo and Edmonton. I get that it's what you want but a 7th overall 2nd round pick and a b level prospect should be enough to move down. If Rutherford really likes a guy he knows he can get at 7/8 then you shouldn't need more than that. This draft is hugely deep and you are getting 2 good prospects for a 2-3 spot drop.

It could require that much to move down, but if that's the price tag for either team I would reluctantly stay away. I want the 5th but its not worth giving up that much

- CrustyRooster


I actually agree. If I were Edm or Buf, I wouldn't do it. But if I were Rutherford, I would not settle for a "fair" trade in a draft where the #5 player could easily be a #2 this year (rankings vary quite a bit this year with some saying Nichushkin has highest ceiling of all of them) or even a #1 pick in weaker drafts.
NEEDSMORHORCOFF
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 04.10.2012

Jun 6 @ 1:29 PM ET
What if they got the forward help they needed for moving down from the #5 pick, and grabbed Risto.

So short term, they come out even'ish if the mystery player can produce at the same level as an 18 yo rookie, and long term (or possibly even short term) they get a great defensive prospect with size that allegedly can even play defense.

Still have the problem of filling that top 4 slot, but with one more possible solution in the organization.

Do the Oilers still like Paarjarvi?

- notwalnc


Paajarvi came on really strong this season and is starting to look like the player the Oilers thought he could be when they drafted him. I can't see him being packaged to move up two spots as his size fills a need for some beef on the wings in the top 9.

From the sounds of it, the Canes are more interested in getting a defenseman back if they move the pick. While I can't see the oilers moving smid, It's possible Nick Schultz could be moved with the 7th? He's a reliable stay at home D-man who is well liked in the locker room. I wouldn't want to see him go but the oilers do have some promising D-prospects in the cupboard and the recent acquisition of Belov could make N.Schultz expendable?

I could see maybe N.Schultz + 7th overall? Maybe throw in a prospect if absolutely necessary? It would leave a pretty big gap in our blueline though.

I still think Hemsky + 7th + D prospect is probably the best the oilers would offer.
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes
Joined: 09.27.2005

Jun 6 @ 1:41 PM ET
Paajarvi came on really strong this season and is starting to look like the player the Oilers thought he could be when they drafted him. I can't see him being packaged to move up two spots as his size fills a need for some beef on the wings in the top 9.

From the sounds of it, the Canes are more interested in getting a defenseman back if they move the pick. While I can't see the oilers moving smid, It's possible Nick Schultz could be moved with the 7th? He's a reliable stay at home D-man who is well liked in the locker room. I wouldn't want to see him go but the oilers do have some promising D-prospects in the cupboard and the recent acquisition of Belov could make N.Schultz expendable?

I could see maybe N.Schultz + 7th overall? Maybe throw in a prospect if absolutely necessary? It would leave a pretty big gap in our blueline though.

I still think Hemsky + 7th + D prospect is probably the best the oilers would offer.

- NEEDSMORHORCOFF


Hemsky helps the Canes none. Canes have about $7M to spend on 3-4 forwards (depth guys mostly) a top 4 dman and a backup goalie. If they took Hemsky, the Canes would basically have spent their top 4 dman budget. So now they have no $ for UFA dman market. So then they have to trade a similar priced forward to get their dman which greatly limits their options. Broken circle is if Rutherford decides he likes Skinner and Ruutu (other F budget hits) better than Hemsky (not at all unreasonable). At this point you try to trade Hemsky for the dman you need but only if someone else really wants Hemsky and will offer a good defenseman for him (seems questionable).

If the Canes trade down, I think helping solve their biggest 2013-14 problem (adding a dman) has to be part of the equation with the only exception being if the Canes are completely contrarian and have someone like Monahan or Lindholm rated above guys like Barkov and/or Nichushkin. That's possible but unlikely given that I have not seen any of the public stuff suggest anyone believes this.
NEEDSMORHORCOFF
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 04.10.2012

Jun 6 @ 1:52 PM ET
Hemsky helps the Canes none. Canes have about $7M to spend on 3-4 forwards (depth guys mostly) a top 4 dman and a backup goalie. If they took Hemsky, the Canes would basically have spent their top 4 dman budget. So now they have no $ for UFA dman market. So then they have to trade a similar priced forward to get their dman which greatly limits their options. Broken circle is if Rutherford decides he likes Skinner and Ruutu (other F budget hits) better than Hemsky (not at all unreasonable). At this point you try to trade Hemsky for the dman you need but only if someone else really wants Hemsky and will offer a good defenseman for him (seems questionable).

If the Canes trade down, I think helping solve their biggest 2013-14 problem (adding a dman) has to be part of the equation with the only exception being if the Canes are completely contrarian and have someone like Monahan or Lindholm rated above guys like Barkov and/or Nichushkin. That's possible but unlikely given that I have not seen any of the public stuff suggest anyone believes this.

- CarolinaMatt63


Well I'll probably get flamed for this, but what about Klefbom for the 5th straight up? Maybe throw in a 2nd rounder and another prospect? Someone else mentioned Toni Rajala. He's a young skilled flashy finnish prospect playing for the Oilers AHL team right now. Rajala + Klefbom for the 5th overall? Thats probably a massive overpayment in the eyes of Oil Country.

I don't know. I'd like to see the Oilers move up but short of D prospects or Nick Schultz I'm not sure who we could offer to help the canes blue line.
BoBBeR56
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Leaf Nation, ON
Joined: 06.30.2010

Jun 6 @ 2:01 PM ET
The Leafs want Monahan. They may be prepared to trade Jake Gardiner, the 21st pick and another young asset (Joe Colborne? Matt Frattin) for a potential #1 Centre
- GPMike

Where did you hear this?
And Leafs wouldn't give up Gardiner, the 21st AND something else.
Gossler1
Joined: 07.11.2011

Jun 6 @ 2:25 PM ET
Hemsky helps the Canes none. Canes have about $7M to spend on 3-4 forwards (depth guys mostly) a top 4 dman and a backup goalie. If they took Hemsky, the Canes would basically have spent their top 4 dman budget. So now they have no $ for UFA dman market. So then they have to trade a similar priced forward to get their dman which greatly limits their options. Broken circle is if Rutherford decides he likes Skinner and Ruutu (other F budget hits) better than Hemsky (not at all unreasonable). At this point you try to trade Hemsky for the dman you need but only if someone else really wants Hemsky and will offer a good defenseman for him (seems questionable).

If the Canes trade down, I think helping solve their biggest 2013-14 problem (adding a dman) has to be part of the equation with the only exception being if the Canes are completely contrarian and have someone like Monahan or Lindholm rated above guys like Barkov and/or Nichushkin. That's possible but unlikely given that I have not seen any of the public stuff suggest anyone believes this.

- CarolinaMatt63


Matt, where are you getting that $7mil figure from?
Orphen22
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Well...that just happend., NY
Joined: 06.24.2012

Jun 6 @ 3:58 PM ET
We won't give both our 1sts but I'd do our 8th overall Sekera and a 2nd. Or Our 8th overall and Pysyk. Idk if that gets it done though.
allen_gamble
Joined: 04.05.2012

Jun 6 @ 4:51 PM ET
Keith Ballard makes a lot of sense. Could also flip McBain to them and help offset the salary increase a bit.

Re: Rutherford and patience with Staal, I don't see it. The franchise feels like they are constantly under pressure to maintain or increase revenue, not to mention make the playoffs. Why not deal for Marc now while his value is at its lowest (assuming the Rangers are willing to move him)?

- Gossler1


Whats the story with Mcbain? I dont know much about him.
allen_gamble
Joined: 04.05.2012

Jun 6 @ 4:52 PM ET
Well I'll probably get flamed for this, but what about Klefbom for the 5th straight up? Maybe throw in a 2nd rounder and another prospect? Someone else mentioned Toni Rajala. He's a young skilled flashy finnish prospect playing for the Oilers AHL team right now. Rajala + Klefbom for the 5th overall? Thats probably a massive overpayment in the eyes of Oil Country.

I don't know. I'd like to see the Oilers move up but short of D prospects or Nick Schultz I'm not sure who we could offer to help the canes blue line.

- NEEDSMORHORCOFF


Not bad as he would be more NHL ready, so would help the canes quicker.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Jun 6 @ 5:31 PM ET
We won't give both our 1sts but I'd do our 8th overall Sekera and a 2nd. Or Our 8th overall and Pysyk. Idk if that gets it done though.
- Orphen22


I am not even sure if I would give up Sekera, but that one I understand the logic.

Pysyk, no way. He is the kind of defenseman you build your D around.
He would make any partner better. If Buffalo offered him and the 8th, Carolina would take it and run, and be giddy about the return while running.

All of these supposed asking prices for even the 5th pick, let alone the 4th or higher, are insane. If teams truly believe they are going to get that kind of return, or are expecting it, they are completely out of their minds.
I hope no team trades up by giving up that much. Total lunacy.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 7 @ 8:31 AM ET
You are getting too caught up in the draft hype, 2 #1's to move up 3 places simply ain't going to happen...more like #1 and a prospect..else keep you 5th pick...there will still be great selections available to Sabres at 8.
randycane
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: United States, NC
Joined: 06.09.2008

Jun 7 @ 12:50 PM ET
You are getting too caught up in the draft hype, 2 #1's to move up 3 places simply ain't going to happen...more like #1 and a prospect..else keep you 5th pick...there will still be great selections available to Sabres at 8.
- IonSabres

I think you're missing the whole point! If some team really feels the player available at #5 is what they really want and need... then they quite likely will "overpay" some for him! Barkov and Nichushkin have high value, and probably can play this coming year. That fact will be a very attractive point for at least a few teams, and most times the team that gets the best player in a trade...WINS THAT TRADE!
Any team that is deep in D-men may be willing to trade one for an elite level forward, and it happens almost every year! Most fans (and some dumb Gm's) have a poor grasp of evaluating comparable talent levels!
randycane
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: United States, NC
Joined: 06.09.2008

Jun 7 @ 1:06 PM ET
Matt, i think there are more top4 d-men that will be available than you may think!
My rationale for saying that is two-fold. !st - some teams are pretty deep on D, and have more quality guys than they can afford under the cap (and still have the proper balance at forward)... so they might need to swap a D-man for a top nine F or pick just to lower their cap! Also, there are a few expensive D-men who could get bought out, making them available as well. I don't pretend to know which of the available free agents are of interest to JR, but i suspect he'll find a pretty good hidden gem!
Viktory
Location: Hamilton, ON
Joined: 08.12.2011

Jun 7 @ 2:47 PM ET
Matt, i think there are more top4 d-men that will be available than you may think!
My rationale for saying that is two-fold. !st - some teams are pretty deep on D, and have more quality guys than they can afford under the cap (and still have the proper balance at forward)... so they might need to swap a D-man for a top nine F or pick just to lower their cap! Also, there are a few expensive D-men who could get bought out, making them available as well. I don't pretend to know which of the available free agents are of interest to JR, but i suspect he'll find a pretty good hidden gem!

- randycane


I could also see Carolina swapping McBain for a different defender. Seems like he needs a change of scenery.

Kulemin, Gunnerson, 21st and a 2nd

for McBain and 5th.

I could see Toronto doing that.
gocanes0506
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: United States, NC
Joined: 02.12.2007

Jun 7 @ 6:38 PM ET
Matt I really think it depends on a few variables:

1. Will Skinner be traded?
2. What will the necessary asset be to get that top 4 dman (could be skins)?
3. How much do we guess the cap will go up in the future?
4. How much does the ownership plan on spending for salary in the future?

Salary cap will not be a large deal next season. The biggest issue will be the season after that (3 & 4). Tlusty and Faulk are due for contracts then and the canes have 44.5 million in salary cap spoke for by 9 players in 14-15. Is the cap going to go up? Maybe and how by how much? That may determine if we are able to keep everyone.

Skins and Tlusty are two most valuable trading assets. I think both are equally hard for us to trade. Tlusty has great chemistry with Staal and Semin. Skins is a very skilled player that, if healthy, could score 40+ goals.

Skins could become available if we are able to draft Nish and possibly get a young winger like Nino Neiderreitter. We have to make sure we have more than one young winger that can play in the league.

The pick could be traded if the ownership is ok with continuing to raise the payroll, skins is kept, and we can wait another couple of season for a lower pick to develop.

There are more variables than I wish to think about.
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