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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Tuesday Quick Hits
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MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 2:27 PM ET
do we want to get better on d people???
Shattenkirk is a 24 year old dman who is only going to get better, will be a top pairing dman, and will be our #1 dman when Kimmo leaves. I love Read as much as anyone here but it is absolutely NOT too much to give up Read+11th+someone like Lauridsen or Manning or Bourdon or Ghost.
None of those players in that trade will be better than Shattenkirk.

Or you know we can trade Couts, 11th, Gus or more for Yandle, whos really an exact replica of Shattenkirk but will a) cost more b) have a higher cap hit and is c) not as good defensively as Shats is

But hey whatever we can sign 35 year old Mark Streit to a 4 year deal worth 5M/yr or get a #3 or #4 guy, when we've already got FIVE of those guys

To give you have to get.

- FLYERSROCK!



Shattenkirk is not a #1. He's a very good #2. And he's not a replacement for Timonen. I'd love to have him, but that is too high of a price in my opinion.
FLYERSROCK!
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Anyone who takes Andrew MacDonald's contract will instantly become my 3rd favourite team, SK
Joined: 09.09.2008

Jun 4 @ 2:27 PM ET
It's an overpayment. You're giving up a solid NHL Forward in Read. A solid first round pick in a very deep draft. And possibly the team's bext defense prospect. I would not give them both Read and the #11 for Shattenkirk. One or the other, but not both.
- MJL

It would start at Read & #11. Who knows maybe that gets it done and im partying afterwards, but that wont get it done

Read isnt even a top 6 FW on this team with Couts being #2C

Hartnell, Giroux, Voracek, Schenn, Couts, Simmonds
All are above Read on the depth chart. So we're trading our 7th best FW, our #11 pick, and a future #3-4 dman.

I dont see in gods mighty name how thats an overpayment for a top pairing defenseman. And yes, Shattenkirk is a top pairing defenseman on atleast 20/30 teams in the league.
FLYERSROCK!
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Anyone who takes Andrew MacDonald's contract will instantly become my 3rd favourite team, SK
Joined: 09.09.2008

Jun 4 @ 2:28 PM ET
Shattenkirk is not a #1. He's a very good #2. And he's not a replacement for Timonen. I'd love to have him, but that is too high of a price in my opinion.
- MJL

hes not a #1 right now im saying if we did acquire him he would be our best dman when Kimmo retires. Kimmo is still the man. Shattenkirk is a very solid #2 dman, wont be anything more i dont think either. Who knows. He's still only 24, not even in his prime yet
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 2:29 PM ET
It would start at Read & #11. Who knows maybe that gets it done and im partying afterwards, but that wont get it done

Read isnt even a top 6 FW on this team with Couts being #2C

Hartnell, Giroux, Voracek, Schenn, Couts, Simmonds
All are above Read on the depth chart. So we're trading our 7th best FW, our #11 pick, and a future #3-4 dman.

I dont see in gods mighty name how thats an overpayment for a top pairing defenseman. And yes, Shattenkirk is a top pairing defenseman on atleast 20/30 teams in the league.

- FLYERSROCK!



I would disagree that all of those players are above Read on the depth chart. Read plays in all situations. Shattenkirk is a top pairing defenseman. He's a #2. But he's not a #1.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 2:30 PM ET
hes not a #1 right now im saying if we did acquire him he would be our best dman when Kimmo retires. Kimmo is still the man. Shattenkirk is a very solid #2 dman, wont be anything more i dont think either. Who knows. He's still only 24, not even in his prime yet
- FLYERSROCK!



Doesn't matter if he would be the team's best D man. It's still too much to give up.
77rams
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: There's a kind of freedom in being completely screwed...
Joined: 09.12.2006

Jun 4 @ 2:30 PM ET
My beef with the black jersey was that it was unoriginal in every way.

At least they tried with the silver in the logo. I didn't care for it, but respected the effort.

If I had any wish for the Flyers uniform (and the NHL uniforms in general) would be to go back to wearing white jerseys at home.

- johndewar



I'd wish they'd go back to long pants.

MrBigglesworth
Location: PA
Joined: 01.30.2008

Jun 4 @ 2:31 PM ET
Or Straka
- mayorofangrytown



yes i know but those are the three NHL-caliber guys who were drafted in 2010 that are now our property

Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 2:32 PM ET
So it's the opposite. A checking line that limits shots, is considered tough competition. But a scoring line that gives up a lot of shots against in easy.
- MJL



Players/lines that generate the most positive Corsi events (shot attempts toward the opposing goal) are considered the 'toughest' competition. For example, it's a lot harder to shut down Claude Giroux than it is to shut down Sean Couturier at this point in time... Giroux is one of the best Flyers at driving the play forward, while Couturier is still only average.

But... QualComp isn't used to estimate a player's (or line's) value by itself. It's just a way to put the other advanced stats into context.

Back to our example: Sean Couturier holds his own in Corsi/Corse-Rel despite facing the 'toughest' competition of anybody on the Flyers, and starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone. Conclusion: Sean Couturier is a pretty special defensive player.


Read more at:

http://www.arcticicehocke...equently-asked-question-2
http://www.matchsticksand...tive-corsi-and-quality-of
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jun 4 @ 2:33 PM ET
yes i know but those are the three NHL-caliber guys who were drafted in 2010 that are now our property
- MrBigglesworth

2010 probably isn't the place to go to find NHL caliber talent that's sprinkled through the NHL. No one did particularly well.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 2:35 PM ET
Players/lines that generate the most positive Corsi events (shot attempts toward the opposing goal) are considered the 'toughest' competition. For example, it's a lot harder to shut down Claude Giroux than it is to shut down Sean Couturier at this point in time... Giroux is one of the best Flyers at driving the play forward, while Couturier is still only average.

But... QualComp isn't used to estimate a player's (or line's) value by itself. It's just a way to put the other advanced stats into context.

Back to our example: Sean Couturier holds his own in Corsi/Corse-Rel despite facing the 'toughest' competition on the Flyers, and starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone. Conclusion: Sean Couturier is a pretty special defensive player.


Read more at:

http://www.arcticicehocke...equently-asked-question-2
http://www.matchsticksand...tive-corsi-and-quality-of

- Tomahawk



So Malkin facing Couturier in the playoffs in 2012 is considered "weak" competition for Malkin?
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 2:40 PM ET
So Malkin facing Couturier in the playoffs in 2012 is considered "weak" competition for Malkin?
- MJL



Statistically speaking, yes.

But like I said, it's not a value judgement on Couturier as a player, it's just tells (part of) the story of how Lavi line-matched him and the role he was asked to play.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 2:42 PM ET
Statistically speaking, yes.

But like I said, it's not a value judgement on Couturier as a player, it's just tells (part of) the story of how Lavi line-matched him and the role he was asked to play.

- Tomahawk



Therein lies the issue with a lot of the advance stats. We know that it was the opposite for Malkin in that playoff Series. It was extremely tough competition for Malkin.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Jun 4 @ 2:44 PM ET
I'd wish they'd go back to long pants.


- 77rams



JR agrees.

bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Jun 4 @ 2:45 PM ET
So it's the opposite. A checking line that limits shots, is considered tough competition. But a scoring line that gives up a lot of shots against in easy.
- MJL


It's a give-and-take. If you limit shots, but don't generate many yourself (as a line), you're not going to get a high Corsi rating. It's basically a +/- stat for shots.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jun 4 @ 2:48 PM ET
So Malkin facing Couturier in the playoffs in 2012 is considered "weak" competition for Malkin?
- MJL

Don't try to find a weakness...they haven't even broken out the Calculus on your @$$ yet
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 2:51 PM ET
Therein lies the issue with a lot of the advance stats. We know that it was the opposite for Malkin in that playoff Series. It was extremely tough competition for Malkin.
- MJL



You're getting caught up in the inherent meaning of the labels...

Replace "tough" with "offensively potent" and "weak" with "not as offensively potent" in your mind.

Also, Couturier was better in that series at driving the play forward that he's ever been as a Flyer. I'm sure if we isolated his QualComp numbers from that series alone, they would look pretty good. But the point of statistics is to build reliable models based on large sample sizes... and for the balance of his career, Couturier has been average-weak competition for the most part.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 4 @ 2:51 PM ET
It's an overpayment. You're giving up a solid NHL Forward in Read. A solid first round pick in a very deep draft. And possibly the team's bext defense prospect. I would not give them both Read and the #11 for Shattenkirk. One or the other, but not both.
- MJL

Not only that, but theres a serious chance that we could end up with a player of Shattenkirks caliber just by drafting 11th....

No way jose.

jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 4 @ 2:54 PM ET
You're getting caught up in the inherent meaning of the labels...

Replace "tough" with "offensively potent" and "weak" with "not as offensively potent" in your mind.

Also, Couturier was better in that series at driving the play forward that he's ever been as a Flyer. I'm sure if we isolated his QualComp numbers from that series alone, they would look pretty good. But the point of statistics is to build reliable models based on large sample sizes... and for the balance of his career, Couturier has been average-weak competition for the most part.

- Tomahawk

I like it as a quick glance stat, but putting any serious merit to it (to me) is not a very conducive way of grading a player.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 2:55 PM ET
Not only that, but theres a serious chance that we could end up with a player of Shattenkirks caliber just by drafting 11th....

No way jose.

- jak521



Not to mention, what good does it do St. Louis? Their window of opportunity has just opened and they're poised to make serious runs in the next few years. They're probably more interested in supplementing their core w/ immediate help versus gathering more long-term assets.
FlyersGrace
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Pronger "Play the game puffnuts!" , DE
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jun 4 @ 2:57 PM ET
are you a fan with a jersey curse...you know, every one that you obtain the player is traded or bought out within a year or so?
- hammarby31

This one has made it for 3 seasons, so prolly not...
Now if we trade Simmonds I might begin to think so. Got the fiancee his jersey about 6 months ago.
Always fun considering who to get next. If Luke keeps playing so well I might have to give in and get his. That or Grossmann's. That man is scary! So glad he's on our side. I have a sweet spot for defensemen these days. I have a long sleeved G shirt I wear under the jersey which should be safe for a bit!
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jun 4 @ 2:58 PM ET
One thing I miss from the 70's and it's not Flyers related and a Jersey I love but will never own...

When the Rangers were home the lettering spelled Rangers and when they were on the road it spelled New York. It's a small thing but I thought it was brilliant at the time.

- mayorofangrytown


Agreed. That was great.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 3:00 PM ET
I like it as a quick glance stat, but putting any serious merit to it (to me) is not a very conducive way of grading a player.
- jak521




Like I said, it's not a grade, a statement of value, or a judgement.

It's only one number, to be used in context with other numbers, to maybe reach some conclusions about how a player was used, misused, has grown, or regressed.

Even traditional stats can't be used in isolation. For example, you won't catch people saying that Tom Sestito had a better defensive year than Couturier because he had a better +/-. You'd have to take a host of other numbers into consideration, and put those numbers into context, before drawing any conclusions. Advanced stats are just the same.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jun 4 @ 3:00 PM ET

My favorite jersey in my tiny collection (and its one that a lot of people hate) is the black Canucks jersey with the red and gold skate on the front.

- Doc_Sarcasm


Holy smokes! All these years and I never realized that logo was a skate over the word Canucks. All this time I just thought it was some stylized nonsense.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Jun 4 @ 3:01 PM ET
I like it as a quick glance stat, but putting any serious merit to it (to me) is not a very conducive way of grading a player.
- jak521


A little context is never a bad thing.

It's just a tool, not an answer.
FlyersGrace
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Pronger "Play the game puffnuts!" , DE
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jun 4 @ 3:02 PM ET
A little context is never a bad thing.

It's just a tool, not an answer.

- bradleyc4

You're a tool. I'm an answer.
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