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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Tuesday Quick Hits
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stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 4 @ 4:45 PM ET
They've been doing that since game 1. Boston just runs them back.
- mayorofangrytown

yeah, you dont run boston. if you want to run lucic, youre going to get destroyed. i hate him, but he can never be accused of being a wussy.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Jun 4 @ 4:45 PM ET
Didn't the jist of this whole debate start because you used these stats to reenforce your opinion that Edler is not as good as people think he is because of who he plays against?

I think that is what some are trying to debate you on.

I could have misunderstood your original point.

- MBFlyerfan


I used them earlier today in a post about not wanting Mark Streit.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Jun 4 @ 4:46 PM ET
Is there a stat that can definitively show how strong a defenseman (or player in general) is defensively? I know +/- is supposed to sort of show it, and I know TOI can give hints, but I don't know if there is a more definitive one. Would there be any way to really judge that statistically? Maybe a stat for players like even strength goals against that they were on the ice for? So just the - part of +/-?
- JAKEw1234

I don't think any one stat could show you that definitively, no.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 4:46 PM ET
Didn't the jist of this whole debate start because you used these stats to reenforce your opinion that Edler is not as good as people think he is because of who he plays against?
- MBFlyerfan



I only jumped into the fray when MJL was asking how QualComp worked. I'm not even sure what the genesis of the discussions was.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jun 4 @ 4:46 PM ET
Didn't the jist of this whole debate start because you used these stats to reenforce your opinion that Edler is not as good as people think he is because of who he plays against?

I think that is what some are trying to debate you on.

I could have misunderstood your original point.

- MBFlyerfan

These threads are often like an argument with my wife. We start out arguing about her credit card balance and 30 minutes later I'm defending my criticism of our new drapes and she's ready to leave me over it.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jun 4 @ 4:47 PM ET
yeah, you dont run boston. if you want to run lucic, youre going to get destroyed. i hate him, but he can never be accused of being a wussy.
- stayinthefnnet

I have a hard time not rooting for Boston. I know I shouldn't but I wish they were all wearing Orange and Black.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Jun 4 @ 4:49 PM ET
Is there a stat that can definitively show how strong a defenseman (or player in general) is defensively? I know +/- is supposed to sort of show it, and I know TOI can give hints, but I don't know if there is a more definitive one. Would there be any way to really judge that statistically? Maybe a stat for players like even strength goals against that they were on the ice for? So just the - part of +/-?
- JAKEw1234


There's no one good metric to show how "good" a defensive defenseman is. You can use Zone Starts to see if they're being used more defensively or offensively. But it doesn't tell you how effective they are.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 4 @ 4:52 PM ET
I have a hard time not rooting for Boston. I know I shouldn't but I wish they were all wearing Orange and Black.
- mayorofangrytown

ah. i cant stand them. largely just because of lucic and marchant. bergeron is one of my absolute favorites though. nothing but respect for him as a player and a person. lucic and marchant are both good players in their own right, but i hate them both. like i said, ill at least give lucic credit because he starts poop but we will sure as hell finish it if you give him the chance. marchant is a rat faced little punk
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 4:55 PM ET
Is there a stat that can definitively show how strong a defenseman (or player in general) is defensively? I know +/- is supposed to sort of show it, and I know TOI can give hints, but I don't know if there is a more definitive one. Would there be any way to really judge that statistically? Maybe a stat for players like even strength goals against that they were on the ice for? So just the - part of +/-?
- JAKEw1234



No, there's no single number that will tell you that... you can use a variety of metrics in tandem to tease out a pretty accurate representation of how a player performed... here's an example of how BSH broke down Schenn's first season as a Flyer... you can use a similar approach for other defenders you're wondering about:

http://www.broadstreethoc...fense-stats-kimmo-timonen
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

Jun 4 @ 4:57 PM ET
I have a hard time not rooting for Boston. I know I shouldn't but I wish they were all wearing Orange and Black.
- mayorofangrytown



You absolutely should be rooting for Boston. They're farther down the Hate-0-Meter than the Penguins. Plus, if the series continues in its current trend, you will be able have all the schadenfreude that you can eat (tastes great, less filling).
bodiva88
Referee
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: There aren't any answers. Only choices.
Joined: 07.01.2007

Jun 4 @ 5:01 PM ET
I have a hard time not rooting for Boston. I know I shouldn't but I wish they were all wearing Orange and Black.
- mayorofangrytown

I find the more I see them play Pittsburgh the more I like them. But I feel that way about any team that beats Pittsburgh.

Marchant feels a lot like Danny B. Little sniper with the ill-timed bone-headed penalty that you can forgive.

I also find I hate Patrick Kane enough that it completely negates my love for Pat Sharp and Jonathan Toews. Sad, really.

And I'm annoyed they broke Mike Richards. Frick & Frack are growing on me again. I had to hate them for a year just to get over my weepy response in the immediate aftermath of the lunchtime trade.
bodiva88
Referee
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: There aren't any answers. Only choices.
Joined: 07.01.2007

Jun 4 @ 5:02 PM ET
You absolutely should be rooting for Boston. They're farther down the Hate-0-Meter than the Penguins. Plus, if the series continues in its current trend, you will be able have all the schadenfreude that you can eat (tastes great, less filling).
- Doc_Sarcasm

Calorie free!
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 5:02 PM ET
sunshine
- Don'tForgetTocchet


Maybe they can get him again
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 4 @ 5:03 PM ET
Is there a stat that can definitively show how strong a defenseman (or player in general) is defensively? I know +/- is supposed to sort of show it, and I know TOI can give hints, but I don't know if there is a more definitive one. Would there be any way to really judge that statistically? Maybe a stat for players like even strength goals against that they were on the ice for? So just the - part of +/-?
- JAKEw1234


+/- is so dependent on everyone else on the team it's a bad measure of a player's defensive abilities.

Look at the first Boston goal last night. Pascal Dupuis was doing his job, but a bad play by Crosby and Letang ended up giving him a minus on the play. He was in no way, shape or form involved in the goal being allowed, but he got the same minus as Crosby
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 4 @ 5:05 PM ET
+/- is so dependent on everyone else on the team it's a bad measure of a player's defensive abilities.

Look at the first Boston goal last night. Pascal Dupuis was doing his job, but a bad play by Crosby and Letang ended up giving him a minus on the play. He was in no way, shape or form involved in the goal being allowed, but he got the same minus as Crosby

- Jsaquella

yeah. at this point letang should just volunteer to take the minus for everyone on the ice at the time. hed be hanging up a minus 11
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 5:05 PM ET
It's not meant to accurately reflect the quality of opponents... it only measures their offensive efficiency. You're getting hung up on the name of the stat and taking the 'quality' aspect of it too literally.


- Tomahawk


Sure it is, or it wouldn't be labeled Quality of Competition. The name implies what it's intended to be. It may be because of the limitations of being able to statistically quantify defensive acumen on paper. But regardless, it is indeed badly flawed. As it basically eliminates half of the game from the equation. So therefore, it doesn't come close to accurately portraying the quality of competition that a player faces. And the questions I asked, were designed to lead in this direction. Along with the Malkin/Couturier example I gave, pointed that out.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 4 @ 5:06 PM ET
I find the more I see them play Pittsburgh the more I like them. But I feel that way about any team that beats Pittsburgh.

Marchant feels a lot like Danny B. Little sniper with the ill-timed bone-headed penalty that you can forgive.

I also find I hate Patrick Kane enough that it completely negates my love for Pat Sharp and Jonathan Toews. Sad, really.

And I'm annoyed they broke Mike Richards. Frick & Frack are growing on me again. I had to hate them for a year just to get over my weepy response in the immediate aftermath of the lunchtime trade.

- bodiva88

haha total insult to danny briere. guy has been nothing but a class act throughout his career.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 5:07 PM ET
Is there a stat that can definitively show how strong a defenseman (or player in general) is defensively? I know +/- is supposed to sort of show it, and I know TOI can give hints, but I don't know if there is a more definitive one. Would there be any way to really judge that statistically? Maybe a stat for players like even strength goals against that they were on the ice for? So just the - part of +/-?
- JAKEw1234


Not really. Herein lies one of the problems with advanced statistics. And why they shouldn't be given nearly as much weight as they're given by some.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 5:09 PM ET
I only jumped into the fray when MJL was asking how QualComp worked. I'm not even sure what the genesis of the discussions was.
- Tomahawk


That was the genesis. And thank you for those links. Even though I read them before. I'm just trying to show how they aren't what many think they are. When I read an article by an analyst in which the topic and conclusion is based entirely on advanced statistics. I think the guy doesn't know how to watch the game and come to an accurate conclusion.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 4 @ 5:09 PM ET
yeah. at this point letang should just volunteer to take the minus for everyone on the ice at the time. hed be hanging up a minus 11
- stayinthefnnet


I just hate when somebody says, "Well so and so is a lousy defensive player. He was a -6"

Mike Green was one of the worst defensive players I have seen. He was a +39 one season.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 5:09 PM ET
These threads are often like an argument with my wife. We start out arguing about her credit card balance and 30 minutes later I'm defending my criticism of our new drapes and she's ready to leave me over it.
- mayorofangrytown


I think it has been a good discussion.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 5:11 PM ET
+/- is so dependent on everyone else on the team it's a bad measure of a player's defensive abilities.

Look at the first Boston goal last night. Pascal Dupuis was doing his job, but a bad play by Crosby and Letang ended up giving him a minus on the play. He was in no way, shape or form involved in the goal being allowed, but he got the same minus as Crosby

- Jsaquella


That's the problem. The perception of the stat is that is determines who is a good defensive player, and who isn't. And that's not what it tells you at all.
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

Jun 4 @ 5:12 PM ET
I find the more I see them play Pittsburgh the more I like them. But I feel that way about any team that beats Pittsburgh.

Marchant feels a lot like Danny B. Little sniper with the ill-timed bone-headed penalty that you can forgive.

I also find I hate Patrick Kane enough that it completely negates my love for Pat Sharp and Jonathan Toews. Sad, really.

And I'm annoyed they broke Mike Richards. Frick & Frack are growing on me again. I had to hate them for a year just to get over my weepy response in the immediate aftermath of the lunchtime trade.

- bodiva88



Now see... Marchand to me is nothing at all like Danny Briere.

I would love to have Marchand on the Flyers... the same way I loved it when we got Max Talbot at that ridiculous bargain basement salary level.

Marchand is reasonably fast, has good hands, a quick shot, can stickhandle through traffic, and most importantly of all: he's got a face that other people want to punch, and this last is an invaluable asset in a hockey player and one whose value should never be underestimated.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 4 @ 5:13 PM ET
I just hate when somebody says, "Well so and so is a lousy defensive player. He was a -6"

Mike Green was one of the worst defensive players I have seen. He was a +39 one season.

- Jsaquella

no i totally understand. it is what it is as a stat. look at say like a third line center who is routinely out there for defensive draws against the other team's studs. hes out there to prevent goals, not score them. even breaking even over a long enough time is quite a feat, considering that eventually sometimes the stars are going to get theirs against you, and you typically dont get the same cushy scenarios in which to get it back.

and yeah i know what you mean about green. oh great, you got a ton of points playing with backstrom and OV and acting as a winger yourself. great. your team needs to hold onto a one goal lead? okay go sit down
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 5:14 PM ET
I just hate when somebody says, "Well so and so is a lousy defensive player. He was a -6"

Mike Green was one of the worst defensive players I have seen. He was a +39 one season.

- Jsaquella



Yeah, lazy people abuse stats the same way lazy people abuse anecdotal eye-ball acounts... like Carter sucks because he can't hit an open net at crunch time, Lindros always skates with his head down, and Carle is a turnover machine.

Whether it's stats or first-hand observation, it's always better to put things in context and look at the broader picture.
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