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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Tuesday Quick Hits
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mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jun 4 @ 5:17 PM ET
I think it has been a good discussion.
- MJL

A good discussion that lost the original topic. Nothing wrong with that as long as no one's feelings get hurt.

Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 5:24 PM ET
Sure it is, or it wouldn't be labeled Quality of Competition. The name implies what it's intended to be.
- MJL



It looks like you should petition Gabe Desjardins to have the QualComp name changed to something less loaded.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 5:27 PM ET
It looks like you should petition Gabe Desjardins to have the QualComp name changed to something less loaded.
- Tomahawk


Don't see the relevance of this to the conversation. I made a very simple point that clearly shows how flawed it is. Even using your own posts that both described Couturier as a " very special defensive player" while at the same time being considered "average to weak competition" based on the stats given by the provider of these so called advanced stats. Something clearly doesn't add up.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jun 4 @ 5:28 PM ET
+/- is so dependent on everyone else on the team it's a bad measure of a player's defensive abilities.

Look at the first Boston goal last night. Pascal Dupuis was doing his job, but a bad play by Crosby and Letang ended up giving him a minus on the play. He was in no way, shape or form involved in the goal being allowed, but he got the same minus as Crosby

- Jsaquella

they should have a stat for giveaways directly resulting in goals against
Coburn could finally lead the team in something.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 5:32 PM ET
they should have a stat for giveaways directly resulting in goals against
Coburn could finally lead the team in something.

- JAKEw1234


I believe that most teams do keep that stat internally.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 5:55 PM ET
Don't see the relevance of this to the conversation. I made a very simple point that clearly points out how flawed it is. Even using your own posts that both described Couturier as a " very special defensive player" while at the same time being considered "average to weak competition" by the same provider of these so called advanced stats. Something clearly doesn't add up.
- MJL



One more time: QualComp is NOT a comprehensive measure of how hard a player is to play against... it only measures puck-possession ability of opponents faced, nothing more.

We only reach the conclusion that Couturier is a very special defensive player when you pull several other metrics together and view it in light of his QualComp, and then compare him with his teammates and other guys around the league who have similar stat-lines (they're aren't many, hence special).

Sure, you could reach the same conclusion, if you watch all the games closely.

But somebody who isn't a Flyers fan can use adv. metrics to reach the same conclusion. If they only had traditional stats to rely on, they'd only see a disappointingly low point total for a guy who was a possible 1st-overall pick who also carries an unimpressive -8... not exactly the whole story.
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jun 4 @ 5:58 PM ET
i dont care to understand advanced stats but i sure hope the Flyers' brass does
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 6:00 PM ET
i dont care to understand advanced stats but i sure hope the Flyers' brass does
- Crimsoninja



Hehe, not sure if they've fully grasped the salary cap yet... one step at a time!
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jun 4 @ 6:01 PM ET
Hehe, not sure if they've fully grasped the salary cap yet... one step at a time!
- Tomahawk

QualCap
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 6:02 PM ET
QualCap
- Crimsoninja


mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jun 4 @ 6:02 PM ET
i dont care to understand advanced stats but i sure hope the Flyers' brass does
- Crimsoninja

I'm with you. I'd rather watch the games then pour through more than just a handful of basic stats.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 6:05 PM ET
One more time: QualComp is NOT a comprehensive measure of how hard a player is to play against... it only measures puck-possession ability of opponents faced, nothing more.


- Tomahawk


One more time. Both the name of the stat, and how it is routinely applied, says otherwise. It's badly flawed. Quality of Competition is an easy term to understand. And we can even go back and look at how it is applied it in this very thread. As evidence of the application. Not to mention the previous thread in discussions on another player.


We only reach the conclusion that Couturier is a very special defensive player when you pull several other metrics together and view it in light of his QualComp, and then compare him with his teammates and other guys around the league who have similar stat-lines (they're aren't many, hence special).

Sure, you could reach the same conclusion, if you watch all the games closely.

But somebody who isn't a Flyers fan can use adv. metrics to reach the same conclusion. If they only had traditional stats to rely on, they'd only see a disappointingly low point total for a guy who was a possible 1st-overall pick who also carries an unimpressive -8... not exactly the whole story.

- Tomahawk


That's really not the point that I was making. The point I was making is that Couturier cannot at the same time be both a very special defensive player, and in your own words "for the balance of his career, Couturier has been average-weak competition for the most part. "

And in answer to a direct question I asked of "So Malkin facing Couturier in the playoffs in 2012 is considered "weak" competition for Malkin?

You responded, "Statistically speaking, yes."

And that shows how flawed it is. Because a very special defensive player is indeed tough competition for an offensive player such as Malkin. As we saw in the playoffs in 2012. This is just the icing on the cake, and looking at just the basic flaws. There is a whole host of other flaws that point out that most advanced stats are questionable at best.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 6:06 PM ET
i dont care to understand advanced stats but i sure hope the Flyers' brass does
- Crimsoninja


I hope they pretty much ignore them.
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jun 4 @ 6:07 PM ET
I hope they pretty much ignore them.
- MJL

so all advanced stats are completely useless in your mind?
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 6:17 PM ET
so all advanced stats are completely useless in your mind?
- Crimsoninja


MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 6:17 PM ET
so all advanced stats are completely useless in your mind?
- Crimsoninja



I think there are some of them that are useful. But the majority, are just a statistician's invention, that don't show what they claim to show.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Jun 4 @ 6:20 PM ET
Numbers are not our friends.

bodiva88
Referee
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: There aren't any answers. Only choices.
Joined: 07.01.2007

Jun 4 @ 6:24 PM ET
haha total insult to danny briere. guy has been nothing but a class act throughout his career.
- stayinthefnnet

So Brad Marchand has been suspended. But it isn't like Danny Briere is angel boy out there. He's known for being sneaky dirty, particularly with the stick. And he'd carve your heart out for a goal. Yes he's classy with media and fans and a team leadership guy. But what about Marchand other than the Salo hit has everyone all annoyed at him? If facial appearance counted here no one would be all swoony in memory about Brind'amour. It isn't that he plays a 2-way game at his size, something Danny doesn't do.

Are we perhaps confusing him with the former goony head hunter weenie with the similar last name (who somehow is just hovering on the edge of my brain--Todd Marchant???).
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 4 @ 6:25 PM ET
so all advanced stats are completely useless in your mind?
- Crimsoninja


Yikes. I hope not -- some of them are so fundamental, calling them "advanced stats" really doesn't do them justice. Teams have to be using them, in conjunction with other things including the "eyeball test," otherwise you'd trick yourself into thinking that "maybe Marc-Andre Bergeron is more than a power-play specialist" or "Steve Downie's 46 points playing with Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis in 2009-2010 is the same as Jakub Voracek's 49 points playing with Derek MacKenzie and Rick Nash."

They aren't the same.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jun 4 @ 6:31 PM ET
As a matter of fact, what I just wrote is likely proof that someone on the Flyers uses advanced stats -- Jakub Voracek was clearly a better player in Columbus than some people realized, including the Blue Jackets themselves.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 6:31 PM ET
Yikes. I hope not -- some of them are so fundamental, calling them "advanced stats" really doesn't do them justice. Teams have to be using them, in conjunction with other things including the "eyeball test," otherwise you'd trick yourself into thinking that "maybe Marc-Andre Bergeron is more than a power-play specialist" or "Steve Downie's 46 points playing with Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis in 2009-2010 is the same as Jakub Voracek's 49 points playing with Derek MacKenzie and Rick Nash."

They aren't the same.

- AllInForFlyers


The parts of advance stats that I think are very useful, is O and D Zone starts. And how they adjust some number such as A/60. It makes it more standardized.
wolfhounds
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 06.02.2009

Jun 4 @ 6:33 PM ET
Nothing earth-shaking here (since it's been speculated before) and it's only the writer's own prediction but Friedman's new 30 Thoughts column suggests the Flyers are considering targeting RFA defensemen this offseason: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/...rate-for-inspiration.html
- bmeltzer


Wow.
A buyout now would have DiPietro on your books until 2029.

Just f'n wow.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jun 4 @ 6:35 PM ET
So Brad Marchand has been suspended. But it isn't like Danny Briere is angel boy out there. He's known for being sneaky dirty, particularly with the stick. And he'd carve your heart out for a goal. Yes he's classy with media and fans and a team leadership guy. But what about Marchand other than the Salo hit has everyone all annoyed at him? If facial appearance counted here no one would be all swoony in memory about Brind'amour. It isn't that he plays a 2-way game at his size, something Danny doesn't do.

Are we perhaps confusing him with the former goony head hunter weenie with the similar last name (who somehow is just hovering on the edge of my brain--Todd Marchant???).

- bodiva88

I don't think anyone's confusing the two. He's a chippy little gnat. He'll give you a shot when no one's looking. He was a playoff pest a couple years for us. That's all it is.

He's had to clean up his game so he can stay on the ice more as his offensive touch has developed but he'll still kick the feet out from under Crosby when he thinks no one is looking.
wolfhounds
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 06.02.2009

Jun 4 @ 6:35 PM ET
Is MY sarcasm meter off? They aren't the same actors. Just very similar...
- FlyersGrace


The Discover ads? Pretty sure those are the same people...that's the whole point of the "we treat you like you treat you" ads.

Ugh. Think maybe I've seen a few too many of those f'n commercials?
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 4 @ 6:41 PM ET
As a matter of fact, what I just wrote is likely proof that someone on the Flyers uses advanced stats -- Jakub Voracek was clearly a better player in Columbus than some people realized, including the Blue Jackets themselves.
- AllInForFlyers



Nah, it's all about the Homer-adjusted "Flyers Hockey" flowchart:

(Big?) --> (Fast?) --> (Scores?) --> (Ginger?) --> (Get him!)
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