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Forums :: Blog World :: Ian Esplen: What's the deal for Nichushkin?
Author Message
bdashaw
Joined: 07.06.2012

Jun 3 @ 11:10 AM ET
I slammed you (not literally) for saying Edler isn't worth anything. That's just nonsense and trolling.
- Scooby_Doo


Never said he wasn't worth anything but he will not get you anywhere near top 5....in fact not even top 10 in this deep draft.
IanEsplen
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 11.22.2011

Jun 3 @ 11:10 AM ET
i'd say marc methot is better than 4-5 players on your list too..........think ottawa could trade him for a top 5 pick?
- sensarmy_11


I don't know, how many all star games has he played in?
How many times has he recieved Norris votes?
I he signed for 6 years?
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Jun 3 @ 11:11 AM ET
So there is about a 25-40% (depending on opinion)chance Vancouver will be getting the worse player and people want Vancouver to add 2-3 players to the deal...

why exactly...

- IanEsplen


you trade for potential. Elder plus a first round pick maybe does it. It's not about what is fair, it's about beating the offers of other teams. Say a 8-15 drafting team wants Nisk... they could offer that pick and a decent player and easily beat your offer.
IanEsplen
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 11.22.2011

Jun 3 @ 11:12 AM ET
It's called "doing business".

And these teams in the top-5 hold most of the cards.

- Powerslave


so these teams hold all the cards, yet they seem to be a lot of the same teams every year.

hmmmm...i'm not sure I want those cards that badly.
IanEsplen
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 11.22.2011

Jun 3 @ 11:13 AM ET
All right folks... Let me remind you of the rules here.

You can discuss the proposal and disagree with Ian, but you can't attack him personally. If you don't think Edler's worth a top 5 pick, tell us why... don't just come out and call it a laughable proposal.

This is the only warning I'll issue.

- jtommyt


thanks man
Hall Fan
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jun 3 @ 11:13 AM ET
Yeah but Tampa taking Edler's salary allows you to sign a possible player to fill the holes you have in all but 4 of your forward positions. So you win instantly by getting two players out of this. Edler's contract is silly and you have 5 dmen making over 4 million a year. He is not as good as Beiksa or Hamhuis and no one is going to trade for Garrison or Ballard. You can buy out ballard, Trade Garrison if you hold half his cap hit but its still not a pretty situation to be in for the team. Then you are filling spots with few options in the UFA market.

Dumping the biggest contract for a large winger to play top line is a good option for you guys. Problem I don't know if anyone wants Edler with that contract. You say six years secured, I say six years over paid.

Nope if you want to talk to them about a top 5. Beiksa and Hamhuis are the starts and a decent prospect. Florida might take schneider but you might have to hold some of his cap hit after his playoff run this year. You next years draft picks are useless because you could do really well with him in you lineup. You have never really put an elite player with the sedins. I say if Burrows can get 40+ points with them. Nich can break 60 his first year. I think Yak could and I don't know if he has the talent that Nich has.
Fosco
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Marwood's Beotch, BC
Joined: 12.08.2007

Jun 3 @ 11:13 AM ET
He was a minus 5 on a very good team....starting to think you are just messing with everyone.
- bdashaw


The Canucks were not a very good team for the majority of the year.

And you better come to bat with more than +/-....

Fosco
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Marwood's Beotch, BC
Joined: 12.08.2007

Jun 3 @ 11:14 AM ET
Yeah but Tampa taking Edler's salary allows you to sign a possible player to fill the holes you have in all but 4 of your forward positions. So you win instantly by getting two players out of this. Edler's contract is silly and you have 5 dmen making over 4 million a year. He is not as good as Beiksa or Hamhuis and no one is going to trade for Garrison or Ballard. You can buy out ballard, Trade Garrison if you hold half his cap hit but its still not a pretty situation to be in for the team. Then you are filling spots with few options in the UFA market.

Dumping the biggest contract for a large winger to play top line is a good option for you guys. Problem I don't know if anyone wants Edler with that contract. You say six years secured, I say six years over paid.

Nope if you want to talk to them about a top 5. Beiksa and Hamhuis are the starts and a decent prospect. Florida might take schneider but you might have to hold some of his cap hit after his playoff run this year. You next years draft picks are useless because you could do really well with him in you lineup. You have never really put an elite player with the sedins. I say if Burrows can get 40+ points with them. Nich can break 60 his first year. I think Yak could and I don't know if he has the talent that Nich has.

- bsteinley


Lost all credibility.
IanEsplen
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 11.22.2011

Jun 3 @ 11:16 AM ET
you trade for potential. Elder plus a first round pick maybe does it. It's not about what is fair, it's about beating the offers of other teams. Say a 8-15 drafting team wants Nisk... they could offer that pick and a decent player and easily beat your offer.
- ChrisMS


I'd argue that Edler is very likely a better player than anyone is offering to move up. Vancouver might only offer him but he's still a lot better than a bunch of prospects who might not see the NHL.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jun 3 @ 11:17 AM ET
I don't know, how many all star games has he played in?
How many times has he recieved Norris votes?
I he signed for 6 years?

- IanEsplen


only 1 less then edler

i'm not comparing methot to edler........i'm saying that just because edler is better then a few guys who were considered draft busts, doesn't mean he's anywhere close to being worth a top 5 pick.

everyone knows, yourself included, that if gillis made that offer to ANY of those 3 teams, he would AT BEST get hung up on, but more likely ridiculed and laughed at by the other GM.


edit: you're also ignoring the fact that in ANY trade, vancouver is bargaining from a position of weakness, cuz other teams know that they HAVE to unload salary.
Dirte
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.03.2009

Jun 3 @ 11:17 AM ET
there are only 6 or 7 guys on that list i'd for sure take edler over....the bolded ones. that means there is atleast an 80% chance of getting a player better then edler in the top 5.............and this is supposed to be one of the deepest drafts in years.
- sensarmy_11



Which, by the way, still completely ignores all the cap advantages and extra years of having the kid under your control that comes with a draft pick.

It would require a big package to land a top 5 pick, from where the Canucks are drafting. Much bigger than just Edler. I think that’s clear to just about everyone here. Almost.
VanHockeyGuy
Location: “Who are we to think we’re anybody?” - Tocchet. Penticton, BC
Joined: 04.26.2012

Jun 3 @ 11:17 AM ET
I don't know, how many all star games has he played in?
How many times has he recieved Norris votes?
I he signed for 6 years?

- IanEsplen

Market value. If it's Edler straight up, fantastic! If not add the piece to make the deal work. A savy GM could pull it off.
bdashaw
Joined: 07.06.2012

Jun 3 @ 11:19 AM ET
The Canucks were not a very good team for the majority of the year.

And you better come to bat with more than +/-....

- Fosco


Right because stats don't tell anything...lets just use something arbitrary like your opinion. No offense seriously but as others have mentioned if this is the best offer made for a top 5 pick I would be very surprised.
Dirte
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.03.2009

Jun 3 @ 11:20 AM ET
Never said he wasn't worth anything but he will not get you anywhere near top 5....in fact not even top 10 in this deep draft.
- bdashaw


It doesn't help that the cap is dropping this year. There won’t be too many teams in the market for any players at all with $5M+ contracts.
IanEsplen
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 11.22.2011

Jun 3 @ 11:22 AM ET
only 1 less then edler

i'm not comparing methot to edler........i'm saying that just because edler is better then a few guys who were considered draft busts, doesn't mean he's anywhere close to being worth a top 5 pick.

everyone knows, yourself included, that if gillis made that offer to ANY of those 3 teams, he would AT BEST get hung up on, but more likely ridiculed and laughed at by the other GM.


edit: you're also ignoring the fact that in ANY trade, vancouver is bargaining from a position of weakness, cuz other teams know that they HAVE to unload salary.

- sensarmy_11


there is this thing called a buyout and while Vancouver doesn't really want to do it they will.

"so you wanna deal for Edler..."

"okay, have fun signing Ballard for free then. I'm sure he'll take your team places."
notwalnc
Carolina Hurricanes
Joined: 09.29.2006

Jun 3 @ 11:24 AM ET
Edler doesn't just have to be a better player than Nichushkin, he has to be a better player than Nichuhskin + 4 million a year in cap space for Valeri's rookie contract.



IanEsplen
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 11.22.2011

Jun 3 @ 11:25 AM ET
Market value. If it's Edler straight up, fantastic! If not add the piece to make the deal work. A savy GM could pull it off.
- VanHockeyGuy


and an even better GM would know that Edler is very likely going to best player in play.

do the teams in the top five want potential, or do they want a guy that is a pretty good defenceman?
Dirte
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.03.2009

Jun 3 @ 11:26 AM ET
there is this thing called a buyout and while Vancouver doesn't really want to do it they will.

"so you wanna deal for Edler..."

"okay, have fun signing Ballard for free then. I'm sure he'll take your team places."

- IanEsplen



The irony of this post is that I've seen several Canucks fans argue that he's a very good dman, who go the shaft from the former coach.

I've even seen some argue that he could be traded for a decent return.
IanEsplen
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 11.22.2011

Jun 3 @ 11:27 AM ET
Edler doesn't just have to be a better player than Nichushkin, he has to be a better player than Nichuhskin + 4 million a year in cap space for Valeri's rookie contract.
- notwalnc


So then what happens when Nish wants 6-8 million after that deal or he bolts back home and Edler still has 3 years at 5 million?

I guess that is of no benefit to a team.

the Russin factor isn't just a draft day thing...it's a thing you're going to deal with for their whole career.
Oilers4Life14
Detroit Red Wings
Location: ON
Joined: 03.06.2013

Jun 3 @ 11:28 AM ET
Edler for Nich? Really... good luck.
Fosco
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Marwood's Beotch, BC
Joined: 12.08.2007

Jun 3 @ 11:28 AM ET
Right because stats don't tell anything...lets just use something arbitrary like your opinion. No offense seriously but as others have mentioned if this is the best offer made for a top 5 pick I would be very surprised.
- bdashaw


Where do the stats say that the Canucks are a very good team?

Where's everyone who says they wouldn't make the playoffs in another division.

+/- is a poor stat, and is not very indicative of overall play since it relies on too many factors outside of a players' ability and actual effect on the game. Many good players have negative +/-.

That's why advanced stats like corsi rel qoc are becoming more popular.
IanEsplen
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 11.22.2011

Jun 3 @ 11:32 AM ET
So, is Edler worth a Shinkaruk or Horvat plus?

Because I'd take that over Edler for Nish any day.
KB3Point0
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Vancouver
Joined: 06.14.2012

Jun 3 @ 11:32 AM ET
Edler doesn't just have to be a better player than Nichushkin, he has to be a better player than Nichuhskin + 4 million a year in cap space for Valeri's rookie contract.
- notwalnc


Nichushkin's cap hit will likely be in the $3M range as a rookie.
Dirte
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.03.2009

Jun 3 @ 11:33 AM ET
Where do the stats say that the Canucks are a very good team?

Where's everyone who says they wouldn't make the playoffs in another division.

+/- is a poor stat, and is not very indicative of overall play since it relies on too many factors outside of a players' ability and actual effect on the game. Many good players have negative +/-.

That's why advanced stats like corsi rel qoc are becoming more popular.

- Fosco



I think they would have been pretty borderline this year, in another division. They were only a few points from ninth place as it is. Depending on what happens in the offseason, I think they could miss next year. This summer will be more about clearing up cap issues, and not having it decimate the team, rather than improve.
KB3Point0
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Vancouver
Joined: 06.14.2012

Jun 3 @ 11:33 AM ET
So then what happens when Nish wants 6-8 million after that deal or he bolts back home and Edler still has 3 years at 5 million?

I guess that is of no benefit to a team.

the Russin factor isn't just a draft day thing...it's a thing you're going to deal with for their whole career.

- IanEsplen


Nichushkin's cap hit will also likely be in the $3M range, even as a rookie. Cap benefit of him over Edler is less than $2M per year.
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