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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: The Risk and Reward of Drafting Defensemen in Round One
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isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

May 30 @ 12:48 PM ET
I'd like to see a list of teams that have top 4 defenseman on ELC's.

I personally would not favor the trade you propose.

- MJL

it would be most accurate to say that these teams have potential top4 guys in the works, so i should amend that...other than that, i stand by what i said.

and why not? PIT has Dupres and a host of other guys in the pipeline. BOS has hamilton and is obvi getting great contributions from krug. CHI has leddy and LA has voynov. and this trend toward banking enuf guys that have that potential is most important w/ the cap contraction. as things go along, there may be a relaxing of this vogue. but for now, the way these guys are valued, it's quite a boon for those orgs.
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

May 30 @ 12:51 PM ET
I think thats a bit of exageration they may not all be the fastest but Gus, Mez (healthy), Timmo are all pretty good skaters. You have to have the right mix cant have all young speedy guys cause then they get over powered. Im all for adding another puck mover but another defenseman needs to go back with it like Coburn or Grossman. Just saying I dont think the Flyers should overpay for one which is what they will need to do to aquire Petro, Shatty, Weber or any top d-man.
- flyerfan28

I'd add that schenn, when he doesn't get over aggressive and take himself out of position is far from a pylon.

The flyers D looks like pylons because they get caught pinching at in opportune times.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 30 @ 12:52 PM ET
That's fine for next season. The issue is planning for a Timonen-less 2014/2015 season.
- jmatchett383



There's no easy solution in sight without drastically altering the core (yet again) -- it might just be a problem that plagues them until they build up enough quality depth in the system slowly, either via draft or trade. Or, something unexpected could fall in their laps, like how Burke got Phaneuf for absolutely nothing.
moylander
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.14.2011

May 30 @ 12:53 PM ET
That's fine for next season. The issue is planning for a Timonen-less 2014/2015 season.
- jmatchett383


No harm in holding off, seeing what our current guys do next year (hopefully healthy), and then assessing next season when guys like schenn, laughton, coots, etc have a chance to to increase their value. I think rushing schenn or coots out of town now would be way too early. At a minimum wait until the tdl before any drastic changes are made, if any.
exlund
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Manywhere, NJ
Joined: 02.16.2007

May 30 @ 12:55 PM ET
Leino...

But there's a lot of "Who cares" trades lumped in there and no great trades either. They haven't really had to make a lot of trades because they draft so well.

- mayorofangrytown


I'm not overly impressed with their (Detroit's) draft results over the past several years...there are other teams that produced more NHL'ers in that time...been quite a while since they struck gold with Zetts and Datsyuk, Franzen...

http://www.hockeydb.com/i...aft/teams/dr00005492.html
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 30 @ 12:56 PM ET
I'd add that schenn, when he doesn't get over aggressive and take himself out of position is far from a pylon.

The flyers D looks like pylons because they get caught pinching at in opportune times.

- JoeRussomanno



Bad team defense and turnovers in the neutral zone will make any individual look like pylon, irrespective of foot speed. Whereas the opposite can successfully mask the deficiencies of real pylons like Chara, Regehr and Doug Murray.

The brain and the puck always move faster than the feet.
wolfhounds
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: dicky seamus, PA
Joined: 06.02.2009

May 30 @ 12:58 PM ET
There's no easy solution in sight without drastically altering the core (yet again) -- it might just be a problem that plagues them until they build up enough quality depth in the system slowly, either via draft or trade. Or, something unexpected could fall in their laps, like how Burke got Phaneuf for absolutely nothing.
- Tomahawk


Detroit lost Lidstrom without any sort of drastic meltdown, so I would hope the Flyers would find a way to survive without Timonen, especially since we all know the day is coming sooner rather than later.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

May 30 @ 1:00 PM ET
I'm not overly impressed with their (Detroit's) draft results over the past several years...there are other teams that produced more NHL'ers in that time...been quite a while since they struck gold with Zetts and Datsyuk, Franzen...

http://www.hockeydb.com/i...aft/teams/dr00005492.html

- exlund

you have to respect what they're getting out of a lot of their young guys after this last plyoff. i don't know how they acquired half of them, but they know how to develop them.
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

May 30 @ 1:00 PM ET
Bad team defense and turnovers in the neutral zone will make any individual look like pylon, irrespective of foot speed. Whereas the opposite can successfully mask the deficiencies of real pylons like Chara, Regehr and Doug Murray.

The brain and the puck always move faster than the feet.

- Tomahawk

No doubt.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

May 30 @ 1:01 PM ET
Detroit lost Lidstrom without any sort of drastic meltdown, so I would hope the Flyers would find a way to survive without Timonen, especially since we all know the day is coming sooner rather than later.
- wolfhounds

as i just posted, DET knows how to develop prospects and having a kronwall as an anchor can soften the blow.
exlund
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Manywhere, NJ
Joined: 02.16.2007

May 30 @ 1:04 PM ET
Your talking about a kid that dominated Malkin, and other teams top players. His only real down last season was what we expected him to do offensively. Hitchcock would sacrifice his third chin for him.
- youarewrong



Despite that great showing against Malkin, Coots took a step back in his overall game this season imo. His D was, on balance, pretty mediocre, and he made a bunch of rookie type mistakes. All of this shouldn't be that unexpected from such a young player, playing in the situation he did this season, so not really too worried about him...that said, I currently project his ceiling a bit lower than most on here.
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

May 30 @ 1:05 PM ET
Bad team defense and turnovers in the neutral zone will make any individual look like pylon, irrespective of foot speed. Whereas the opposite can successfully mask the deficiencies of real pylons like Chara, Regehr and Doug Murray.

The brain and the puck always move faster than the feet.

- Tomahawk



Monty Pylon's Stationary Circus?
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

May 30 @ 1:06 PM ET
There's no easy solution in sight without drastically altering the core (yet again) -- it might just be a problem that plagues them until they build up enough quality depth in the system slowly, either via draft or trade. Or, something unexpected could fall in their laps, like how Burke got Phaneuf for absolutely nothing.
- Tomahawk

seeing how richards took a quantum leap in his 3rd yr has me nervous about moving couts or schenn. you're right, there's no easy fix, it's just a matter of how high they want to shoot to acquire that plyr.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

May 30 @ 1:07 PM ET
seeing how richards took a quantum leap in his 3rd yr has me nervous about moving couts or schenn. you're right, there's no easy fix, it's just a matter of how high they want to shoot to acquire that plyr.
- isaiah520


Statistically, most offensive jumps occur in the 4th year. But can easily happen in Year 3, depending on the player and situation.

Look at 4th year guys who had jumps this past season: John Tavares, Matt Duchene, Brad Marchand, JVR, Michael Grabner, Kyle Turris, etc.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 30 @ 1:07 PM ET
you have to respect what they're getting out of a lot of their young guys after this last plyoff. i don't know how they acquired half of them, but they know how to develop them.
- isaiah520



Yeah, it's less about drafting and more about DET maintaining a commitment to giving every kid they draft the very best possible development path to the NHL, no matter which round they came from.

Flyers put all their attention on their top picks and are quick to cut bait with the rest.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

May 30 @ 1:09 PM ET
Despite that great showing against Malkin, Coots took a step back in his overall game this season imo. His D was, on balance, pretty mediocre, and he made a bunch of rookie type mistakes. All of this shouldn't be that unexpected from such a young player, playing in the situation he did this season, so not really too worried about him...that said, I currently project his ceiling a bit lower than most on here.
- exlund

theres an article from TOU or the hockey guys, where they broke down the corsi #s of couts and it seemed to reveal that his yr wasn't as much of a backstep as you may think. i think someone posted it here a few weeks ago.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 30 @ 1:10 PM ET
seeing how richards took a quantum leap in his 3rd yr has me nervous about moving couts or schenn. you're right, there's no easy fix, it's just a matter of how high they want to shoot to acquire that plyr.
- isaiah520



Yeah, it's called a development curve for a reason... it's not linear as some people seem to believe.

mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

May 30 @ 1:10 PM ET
you have to respect what they're getting out of a lot of their young guys after this last plyoff. i don't know how they acquired half of them, but they know how to develop them.
- isaiah520

All but Dekeyser came from the draft. So, I don't know why they would be considered a poor drafting team in the last few years.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

May 30 @ 1:12 PM ET
Yeah, it's less about drafting and more about DET maintaining a commitment to giving every kid they draft the very best possible development path to the NHL, no matter which round they came from.

Flyers put all their attention on their top picks and are quick to cut bait with the rest.

- Tomahawk

if i owned the team, i would try to adopt their approach and take as many people from that org as i could. this had every right to be a rough yr for them, but that commitment won the day.
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

May 30 @ 1:13 PM ET
My fear is that with the reduced cap, the holes on defense, the sheer number of injuries etc... that this coming year is going to be another year of frustration, and we may have to wait until the 2014/2015 season before we see measurable progress. I hope not, but thats what my gut tells me. (My gut also told me to eat at Taco Bell once, and I got sick... so much for my gut as a prognosticatory device)
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

May 30 @ 1:13 PM ET
Yeah, it's less about drafting and more about DET maintaining a commitment to giving every kid they draft the very best possible development path to the NHL, no matter which round they came from.

Flyers put all their attention on their top picks and are quick to cut bait with the rest.

- Tomahawk

The fact that so many of their picks are playing for them it gives them a chance to leave the kids to develop. It takes years of quality drafting to build that kind of development process.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

May 30 @ 1:13 PM ET
thanks again Bill

for me the bottom line is what the top GMs in this league are doing or attempting to do- have as many top 4 level dmen available on ELCs because dmen cost the most and are the most expensive to acquire in terms of assets. a GM who is efficient in his use of assets obviously has more slack and homer has been wanting in that regard in the past.

based on your blog today, would you be willing to trade our #1 this yr and B Schenn+ to acquire a dman like shattenkirk?

- isaiah520


overpayment
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

May 30 @ 1:13 PM ET
All but Dekeyser came from the draft. So, I don't know why they would be considered a poor drafting team in the last few years.
- mayorofangrytown

they get more out of their plyrs than any other org...patience of Job.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

May 30 @ 1:15 PM ET
overpayment
- Philly1980

prob so, but that would likely be the kind of price it would take.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 30 @ 1:16 PM ET
The fact that so many of their picks are playing for them it gives them a chance to leave the kids to develop. It takes years of quality drafting to build that kind of development process.
- mayorofangrytown



It's kind of a chicken/egg argument though... if they aren't patient with development and willing to suffer the ups/downs of continually plugging kids into the lineup, they'd probably be busy rushing picks up or going the trade/UFA routes like the Flyers tend to do.
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