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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Hartnell's Down Season in Context, Memorial Cup
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Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 21 @ 11:35 AM ET
Yeah, nobody outside of Stamkos is going to be shooting anywhere near 18-19% consistently... giving out a $36M extension based on a statistical outlier of a season is one of the dumbest things a team can do... which is why so many of us were upset with the JvR and Hartnell extensions, but so glad when they let Leino walk.
- Tomahawk


Good thing JVR and Hartnell got a lot less than $36 million.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 21 @ 11:37 AM ET
That's why it's fair to expect a bit of a downturn in Voracek's numbers next season. At least his goals per game #. Very unlikely he scores at 17% again.
- bradleyc4



Exactly.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

May 21 @ 11:38 AM ET
Exactly.
- Tomahawk


He's still the team's best puck possession player and a vital piece to the top line, though.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 21 @ 11:46 AM ET
He's still the team's best puck possession player and a vital piece to the top line, though.
- bradleyc4



For sure. I'm just relieved that he waited until after he had already been extended to have his breakout season. We'd probably be looking in the $5-6M range for him if that hadn't been the case.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

May 21 @ 11:52 AM ET
I'll be glad when this imaginary cap number goes away after next season. Friggin' goofball reduction to force teams that spend to the cap into compliance buyouts of lengthy expensive contracts.

Ridiculous.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 12:10 PM ET
Yeah, nobody outside of Stamkos is going to be shooting anywhere near 18-19% consistently... giving out a $36M extension based on a statistical outlier of a season is one of the dumbest things a team can do... which is why so many of us were upset with the JvR and Hartnell extensions, but so glad when they let Leino walk.
- Tomahawk



That's assuming that Hartnell's extension was given out based on one Season. It was not. It was based on Hartnell's play over his entire time spent in a Flyers uniform. And the Leino comparison is a poor one. That's a player who had one decent Season in the NHL at the time.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 12:11 PM ET
I have no problem with Hartnell's cap hit, it's the length of the extension that scares me.
- Jimmygrazz



If the length was shorter. Then you likely would've been scared by the Cap hit.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

May 21 @ 12:18 PM ET
That's assuming that Hartnell's extension was given out based on one Season. It was not. It was based on Hartnell's play over his entire time spent in a Flyers uniform. And the Leino comparison is a poor one. That's a player who had one decent Season in the NHL at the time.
- MJL


Regardless of Hartnell's situation/contract, it does happen a lot. Guys get contracts based on performance of one year.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 12:20 PM ET
Regardless of Hartnell's situation/contract, it does happen a lot. Guys get contracts based on performance of one year.
- bradleyc4



Yes, they do. Leino for example. But that's not the case with Hartnell.
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

May 21 @ 12:25 PM ET
Regardless of Hartnell's situation/contract, it does happen a lot. Guys get contracts based on performance of one year.
- bradleyc4

True.

johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

May 21 @ 12:29 PM ET
Regardless of Hartnell's situation/contract, it does happen a lot. Guys get contracts based on performance of one year.
- bradleyc4


It does happen, but I would like to see a comparison of Hartnell's stats comparing his output with players around the league of similar experience/skills.

In other words, what was the market for a guy like Hartnell when the extension was given?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 12:31 PM ET
It does happen, but I would like to see a comparison of Hartnell's stats comparing his output with players around the league of similar experience/skills.

In other words, what was the market for a guy like Hartnell when the extension was given?

- johndewar



Hartnell could've gotten more on the open market then he took from the Flyers.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

May 21 @ 12:31 PM ET
It does happen, but I would like to see a comparison of Hartnell's stats comparing his output with players around the league of similar experience/skills.

In other words, what was the market for a guy like Hartnell when the extension was given?

- johndewar


Hartnell got basically a $520,000 raise if you base it on cap number.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

May 21 @ 12:32 PM ET
Hartnell could've gotten more on the open market then he took from the Flyers.
- MJL


Actually, that's kind of my opinion there.

I just don't know if the numbers back up that opinion or if I'm way off base.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 21 @ 12:39 PM ET
It does happen, but I would like to see a comparison of Hartnell's stats comparing his output with players around the league of similar experience/skills.

In other words, what was the market for a guy like Hartnell when the extension was given?

- johndewar


Wait and see what Clarkson gets, or look at Hornqvist in Nashville who just got a 5 year deal with AAV of $4.25 million.

Hornqvist averages 0.57 PPG after five years in the league, which is slightly higher than Hartnell's career PPG of 0.55 but Hartnell's point per game average over the last five seasons is 0.64.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 21 @ 12:59 PM ET
Wait and see what Clarkson gets, or look at Hornqvist in Nashville who just got a 5 year deal with AAV of $4.25 million.

Hornqvist averages 0.57 PPG after five years in the league, which is slightly higher than Hartnell's career PPG of 0.55 but Hartnell's point per game average over the last five seasons is 0.64.

- Feanor


Erik cole similar player/age/numbers as a UFA in 2011 got 4.5 over 4 on day 1 from the Canadians. Theres a comparison from just one summer before

Hartnell did the flyers no favors and basically got UFA value.

Not to say we don't need him
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 1:22 PM ET
Erik cole similar player/age/numbers as a UFA in 2011 got 4.5 over 4 on day 1 from the Canadians. Theres a comparison from just one summer before

Hartnell did the flyers no favors and basically got UFA value.

Not to say we don't need him

- Just5



I mentioned this to you before. Salaries escalate over time. You can't buy a loaf a bread now, for what you paid for it in 2011. That's a poor comparison. What was market value in 2011, is not market value now. Hartnell took less then he could get on the open market salary wise, in exchange for the security of a longer deal.
Ondrej F
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Prague
Joined: 02.17.2010

May 21 @ 1:24 PM ET
That's why it's fair to expect a bit of a downturn in Voracek's numbers next season. At least his goals per game #. Very unlikely he scores at 17% again.
- bradleyc4

I expect him to score 50 (no matter at which %)
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 21 @ 1:26 PM ET
Erik cole similar player/age/numbers as a UFA in 2011 got 4.5 over 4 on day 1 from the Canadians. Theres a comparison from just one summer before

Hartnell did the flyers no favors and basically got UFA value.

Not to say we don't need him

- Just5



Not to mention that Cole and Hartnell signed their deals/extensions in an environment of the ever-escalating upper-limit -- it plummets by 10% this summer -- this will be the first summer where salaries will begin to adjust in reaction to the new CBA.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

May 21 @ 1:26 PM ET
I expect him to score 50 (no matter at which %)
- Ondrej F


At the rate he shoots the puck, that would be 100%.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

May 21 @ 1:26 PM ET
Erik cole similar player/age/numbers as a UFA in 2011 got 4.5 over 4 on day 1 from the Canadians. Theres a comparison from just one summer before

Hartnell did the flyers no favors and basically got UFA value.

Not to say we don't need him

- Just5


I wouldn't trade Scott Hartnell for Erik Cole, straight up.

Hartnell has the physical element to his game that makes him a better asset, IMO.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

May 21 @ 1:27 PM ET
I wouldn't trade Scott Hartnell for Erik Cole, straight up.

Hartnell has the physical element to his game that makes him a better asset, IMO.

- johndewar


Not to mention that Cole is 4 years older than Hartnell.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 1:29 PM ET
Not to mention that Cole and Hartnell signed their deals/extensions in an environment of the ever-escalating upper-limit -- it plummets by 10% this summer -- this will be the first summer where salaries will begin to adjust in reaction to the new CBA.
- Tomahawk



Honestly, it remains to be seen if salaries begin to adjust. Teams are still going to overspend for top players. The players lower on the totem pole are the ones who are going to see the crunch.
Ondrej F
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Prague
Joined: 02.17.2010

May 21 @ 1:39 PM ET
At the rate he shoots the puck, that would be 100%.
- bradleyc4

Projected to 82 games season, he scored almost 40. You mean, he was at 80%
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

May 21 @ 1:40 PM ET
Honestly, it remains to be seen if salaries begin to adjust. Teams are still going to overspend for top players. The players lower on the totem pole are the ones who are going to see the crunch.
- MJL

It'll be interesting to see how it all specifically shakes out.
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