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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Saturday Worlds Update
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flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

May 11 @ 9:13 PM ET
Again, if you have a hammer and use it to fix glass, it's going to do a poor job, even if it's an expensive and high quality hammer.

The defense does need tweaking, nobody's denying that. But when you have a defense with limited mobility and ask them to play the way Laviolette did this past season(and to be honest the season before) it's going to look a lot worse than it actually is.

Used properly, the Flyers defense can be decent. That means making Coburn a 2nd pair defense first guy and don't ask him to be a puck mover and anchor a top pair. It means if Meszaros stays healthy, use him as sort of a "super" 5th defenseman, who plays more minutes than an average 5th guy and in more situations, rather than asking him to be a top pair guy.

That's why they could use another guy with more mobility. To better slot the guys on hand and have them fill roles better suited to their abilities.

We can say it's no big deal for two non playoff years in a row, but we know that won't fly with the owner, so why bring it up? It's like saying Led Zeppelin should reunite. Great in theory, but you're not getting the singer to agree, so it's like pissing into the wind.

- Jsaquella


Some good points for sure.

The thing with Meszaros, I think its magical fantasy to expect him to stay healthy at this point. I also personally have seen enough of Coburn in his time with the Flyers to believe that there is no rats ass chance at knowing how he will play a given night.

Even for a second pairing d-man, one that is paid what he is, that is brutal. Its just as likely he will be solid defensively, or have an absolutely brutal game that costs you the SCF. The thing with Coburn, is when he is bad, its horrific.

Your last thought on Snider not being able to accept a proper rebuild even if its just on D, and might take a couple of years, is bang on. Frankly I dont care what style Lava had them playing, Holmgren gave most of the guys on D their contracts. Put them together, and has it being the 2nd highest paid defense in the league.

For what? Being one dimensional, inconsistent, having health concerns and a majority of the guys best suited to secondary roles?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 11 @ 9:14 PM ET
My point basically.

The Flyers are paying to ice a D core in the NHL that has the 2nd highest cost.

I wouldnt be rolling the dice with the same crew, and expecting magical results if possible moves can be made. Holmgren has to look as far as I am concerned, and in the future not spend so much money, on a d-core that doesnt live up to its cap hit.

This year was strange, but to completely write it off as an anomaly is playing with fire.

- flyer_nutter


What evidence is there to suggest that Homgren is not looking at ways to improve the team, and the defense? The Free Agenst offer to Suter last offseason? Or the OS to Weber?
Apparently you want Holmgren to improve the defense, and to not spend so much. Good luck.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

May 11 @ 9:14 PM ET
10 million gone but a HUGE hole to fill with the departure of Timonen, who even with playing through injury, aging and being undersized is usually the best d-man by far when looking at the all round game.

You are right with the ELC's. Thats where I am heading with this. Jakew1234 posted a lineup farther up on this page (quoted), which might be a little dreamy, in terms of how the kids develop, but the Flyers are paying so much money for their defense. What the hell for?

Forward attention to defensive play is one thing, but to pay that much money for this defensive core in a cap era? Horrific.

- flyer_nutter

cause that's what they cost. if the flyers can draft well, then how they apportion salary according to position is less important.

there's prob some guideline published somewhere on the net about a moneyball approach to hockey, where there would be so much of a % of the cap allocated to top 6 forwards, top 4 dmen and a starting goalie. i don't see any indication that the flyers necessarily subscribe to a rigid application of such a philosophy, but i'm sure low budget teams like PHO do.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 11 @ 9:16 PM ET
Some people piss harder than others.
- JoeRussomanno


If I was the GM, I'd certainly do some of the things suggested. I think the top priority is landing a solid top 4 guy who has good mobility and puck skills.

And the main reasons I hang onto Meszaros is because they're not likely to get anything of real value for him right now and because I'm wary of Gustafsson's own injury history and being fairly unproven.

If Gus can handle his role and stay healthy, a healthy Meszaros will have more value at the TDL than he will at the draft after missing most of the season.

If people are not worried about making the playoffs necessarily, who cares if they can win jackpoop with the current top 5, two of whom will be UFA next summer?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 11 @ 9:17 PM ET
10 million gone but a HUGE hole to fill with the departure of Timonen, who even with playing through injury, aging and being undersized is usually the best d-man by far when looking at the all round game.

You are right with the ELC's. Thats where I am heading with this. Jakew1234 posted a lineup farther up on this page (quoted), which might be a little dreamy, in terms of how the kids develop, but the Flyers are paying so much money for their defense. What the hell for?

Forward attention to defensive play is one thing, but to pay that much money for this defensive core in a cap era? Horrific.

- flyer_nutter


A healthy Meszaros, and a bounce back from Coburn. A more confident Gustafsson showing he can be an NHL regular. And it's not so horrific. A log of drama here. It's not ideal. But it's far from horrific.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

May 11 @ 9:19 PM ET
cause that's what they cost. if the flyers can draft well, then how they apportion salary according to position is less important. there's prob some guideline published somewhere on the net about a moneyball approach to hockey, where there would be so much of a % of the cap allocated to top 6 forwards, top 4 dmen and a starting goalie. i don't see any indication that the flyers necessarily subscribe to a rigid application of such a philosophy, but i'm sure low budget teams like PHO do.
- isaiah520


Exactly. Thats really important.

I'd say to me you are right on with the comments on what these players would probably cost on FA is what they are being paid currently.

Thats where player evaluation, and looking at the big picture instead of just throwing a bunch of guys together and hoping for the best comes in. Ignoring health concerns, and consistent play seems to be forgotten.

Sure some team might pay Coburn or Meszaros what they are making now in FA. Doesnt mean its the right move imo.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 11 @ 9:20 PM ET


I think this organization really needs to get out of its damn head that they have a window to win the cup. Its closed. The offense is on its way to being made, but that D needs to be re-tooled, and the money spent on the correct players/areas.

- flyer_nutter


This doesn't make much sense. When the Flyers traded Richards and Carter, they knew they'd be taking a step back in order to be better in the future hopefully. What makes you think that the Flyers feel they have a short window to win the Cup? It's the opposite. The window is a future opening.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 11 @ 9:23 PM ET
Some good points for sure.

The thing with Meszaros, I think its magical fantasy to expect him to stay healthy at this point. I also personally have seen enough of Coburn in his time with the Flyers to believe that there is no rats ass chance at knowing how he will play a given night.

Even for a second pairing d-man, one that is paid what he is, that is brutal. Its just as likely he will be solid defensively, or have an absolutely brutal game that costs you the SCF. The thing with Coburn, is when he is bad, its horrific.

Your last thought on Snider not being able to accept a proper rebuild even if its just on D, and might take a couple of years, is bang on. Frankly I dont care what style Lava had them playing, Holmgren gave most of the guys on D their contracts. Put them together, and has it being the 2nd highest paid defense in the league.

For what? Being one dimensional, inconsistent, having health concerns and a majority of the guys best suited to secondary roles?

- flyer_nutter


I'm not counting on Meszaros to be healthy. I'm counting on him to provide depth or LTIR relief to add pieces in season. Also, if he does stay healthy and Gustafsson is capable of being a top four guy(and stays healthy himself) Meszaros will have more value at the TDL than the summer after he missed most of the season.

If they go out and trade for a good top 4 guy with good mobility, the 2nd pair could be Timonen & Coburn, which is far from brutal. If you think Coburn is brutal for what he's being paid, you should look at other defensemen making what he makes...he's getting around market value for what he brings.

How could you not care what style they played? That'd be like saying it's OK to use Crosby as a checking line center and expect him to win the Art Ross because of his salary. If you ask a guy to be a puck mover and transition game specialist, but he doesn't have that skill set, you're setting yourself up to fail.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

May 11 @ 9:23 PM ET
If I was the GM, I'd certainly do some of the things suggested. I think the top priority is landing a solid top 4 guy who has good mobility and puck skills.

And the main reasons I hang onto Meszaros is because they're not likely to get anything of real value for him right now and because I'm wary of Gustafsson's own injury history and being fairly unproven.

If Gus can handle his role and stay healthy, a healthy Meszaros will have more value at the TDL than he will at the draft after missing most of the season.

If people are not worried about making the playoffs necessarily, who cares if they can win jackpoop with the current top 5, two of whom will be UFA next summer?

- Jsaquella


Meszaros imo has no takers. Who the hell would want that unless maybe for a 7th or a salary dump coming back?

The notion of caring, comes into play with Oliver and Guss. I rather lose Coburn and allow Guss and Oliver to slide into permanent top 6 roles. Instead of praying that the current crew somehow leads this team to a cup.

Or they can continue to have young D that show even a bit of promise, benched after one bad game, or playing with a different D partner every game.

Its time to look to the future, is what Im thinking. Or keep overpaying for margical inconsistent guys, because you cant properly develop anything of your own, and hope for the fruit loops to rain down.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 11 @ 9:23 PM ET
Moves wouldn't be made just for the sake of it. A serious plan needs to be made to replace Kimmo. Long term, Coburn and Mez don't really have a place on this team. They're from our old era defense. They're our defense from the Richards/Carter time. That time is gone now and over the next couple of years I think it's important to move on from Mez and Coburn, as well.
- JAKEw1234


How do you make a serious plan to replace Timonen? Without knowing who is going to be available via free agency or through trades in the future? You have to be patient and see what moves become available. Coburn and Meszaros aren't exactly old and washed up. Both are in their late 20's.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 11 @ 9:26 PM ET
Meszaros imo has no takers. Who the hell would want that unless maybe for a 7th or a salary dump coming back?

The notion of caring, comes into play with Oliver and Guss. I rather lose Coburn and allow Guss and Oliver to slide into permanent top 6 roles. Instead of praying that the current crew somehow leads this team to a cup.

Or they can continue to have young D that show even a bit of promise, benched after one bad game, or playing with a different D partner every game.

Its time to look to the future, is what Im thinking. Or keep overpaying for margical inconsistent guys, because you cant properly develop anything of your own, and hope for the fruit loops to rain down.

- flyer_nutter


If Meszaros shows he's healthy and plays well, he would certainly have value. Who would want Meszaros. Coburn is brutal. All overreactions.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

May 11 @ 9:26 PM ET
I'm not counting on Meszaros to be healthy. I'm counting on him to provide depth or LTIR relief to add pieces in season. Also, if he does stay healthy and Gustafsson is capable of being a top four guy(and stays healthy himself) Meszaros will have more value at the TDL than the summer after he missed most of the season.

If they go out and trade for a good top 4 guy with good mobility, the 2nd pair could be Timonen & Coburn, which is far from brutal. If you think Coburn is brutal for what he's being paid, you should look at other defensemen making what he makes...he's getting around market value for what he brings.

How could you not care what style they played? That'd be like saying it's OK to use Crosby as a checking line center and expect him to win the Art Ross because of his salary. If you ask a guy to be a puck mover and transition game specialist, but he doesn't have that skill set, you're setting yourself up to fail.

- Jsaquella


For being the second highest paid defense in the NHL, even with the style they played, that is not good enough.

Like Isiah said I believe, I would definately agree that the d-men probably make what they would get in FA. Thats where better player evaluation comes in, and what players are really worth. Not simply based on what they would make in FA.

Its basically the Carle situation. Sure that is what he may be worth on the market, but is he worth that in reality?

Second highest paid defense. Not good enough. More specifically, not the right mixture, and evaluation of players who are worth their cap hit.

I'd at the end of it just wish the Flyers would realise that Mez and Coburn probably arent worth their hits due to inconsistency and health concerns. Do a better job evaluating that in the future. Look to the future, instead of praying these guys hit some glorious magical/health streak.

Thats La la land optimism to me.

Edit: No real ill will here, just a topic thats been floating through my head.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

May 11 @ 9:30 PM ET
Exactly. Thats really important.

I'd say to me you are right on with the comments on what these players would probably cost on FA is what they are being paid currently.

Thats where player evaluation, and looking at the big picture instead of just throwing a bunch of guys together and hoping for the best comes in. Ignoring health concerns, and consistent play seems to be forgotten.

Sure some team might pay Coburn or Meszaros what they are making now in FA. Doesnt mean its the right move imo.

- flyer_nutter

a GM can't always put together a team that has core pieces that grow together uniformly. in fact, it's likely the exception, not the rule. having young, cheap talent on hand can save a GM's hide though.

i will say that many questioned trading richards and carter, in essentially a re-boot where the core forwards were young, the top dmen were declining and the goalie was signed to a deal where the last couple of yrs were likely to be spent in retirement. there's a lack of congruity there that had some people shaking their heads about where homer was going and what the L-T plan was. those were reasonable questions to ask then and certainly, now.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 11 @ 9:31 PM ET
Meszaros imo has no takers. Who the hell would want that unless maybe for a 7th or a salary dump coming back?

The notion of caring, comes into play with Oliver and Guss. I rather lose Coburn and allow Guss and Oliver to slide into permanent top 6 roles. Instead of praying that the current crew somehow leads this team to a cup.

Or they can continue to have young D that show even a bit of promise, benched after one bad game, or playing with a different D partner every game.

Its time to look to the future, is what Im thinking. Or keep overpaying for margical inconsistent guys, because you cant properly develop anything of your own, and hope for the fruit loops to rain down.

- flyer_nutter



Exactly, Meszaros likely has no takers. So why deal him for nothing or take on another team's mistake when he's in the last year of his deal, and might have value if he can stay relatively healthy and be traded at the TDL?

If you move Coburn, and move in Lauridsen, and Laviolette doesn't tweak the defense, then the bloom will probably fall off that rose real quick. He did a solid job in a limited system and role this season. Can he step in and be a regular if Laviolette is playing his full on system?

It's not necessarily ignoring the future, hanging onto Coburn and Meszaros, it's covering your bases and not asking guys to fill roles they might not be ready to handle
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

May 11 @ 9:32 PM ET
a GM can't always put together a team that has core pieces that grow together uniformly. in fact, it's likely the exception, not the rule. having young, cheap talent on hand can save a GM's hide though.

i will say that many questioned trading richards and carter, in essentially a re-boot where the core forwards were young, the top dmen were declining and the goalie was signed to a deal where the last couple of yrs were likely to be spent in retirement. there's a lack of congruity there that had some people shaking their heads about where homer was going and what the L-T plan was. those were reasonable questions to ask then and certainly, now.

- isaiah520


Essentially yes.

I think its time to move on from the Coburn/Mez thing, and allow the young kids Guss/Oliver to slide into permanent top 6 roles with regularity.

Thats all its about at the end of this BM.
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

May 11 @ 9:34 PM ET
If I was the GM, I'd certainly do some of the things suggested. I think the top priority is landing a solid top 4 guy who has good mobility and puck skills.

And the main reasons I hang onto Meszaros is because they're not likely to get anything of real value for him right now and because I'm wary of Gustafsson's own injury history and being fairly unproven.

If Gus can handle his role and stay healthy, a healthy Meszaros will have more value at the TDL than he will at the draft after missing most of the season.

If people are not worried about making the playoffs necessarily, who cares if they can win jackpoop with the current top 5, two of whom will be UFA next summer?

- Jsaquella

I really think meszaros just ran into a string of bad luck. Not in a hurry to move him.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 11 @ 9:34 PM ET
For being the second highest paid defense in the NHL, even with the style they played, that is not good enough.

Like Isiah said I believe, I would definately agree that the d-men probably make what they would get in FA. Thats where better player evaluation comes in, and what players are really worth. Not simply based on what they would make in FA.

Its basically the Carle situation. Sure that is what he may be worth on the market, but is he worth that in reality?

Second highest paid defense. Not good enough. More specifically, not the right mixture, and evaluation of players who are worth their cap hit.

I'd at the end of it just wish the Flyers would realise that Mez and Coburn probably arent worth their hits due to inconsistency and health concerns. Do a better job evaluating that in the future. Look to the future, instead of praying these guys hit some glorious magical/health streak.

Thats La la land optimism to me.

Edit: No real ill will here, just a topic thats been floating through my head.

- flyer_nutter


In order for what your saying here to make sense. The Flyers, who acquired Meszaros in 2010, who was already signed to a contract with a 4M Cap hit. Would have to have anticipated and predicted Meszaros incurring the injuries he's had. Because otherwise, if he had stayed healthy and not had these injuries. He's well worth the 4M Cap hit. The Flyers should have evaluated and played Nostradamus and predicted these injuries would happen.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

May 11 @ 9:35 PM ET
Exactly, Meszaros likely has no takers. So why deal him for nothing or take on another team's mistake when he's in the last year of his deal, and might have value if he can stay relatively healthy and be traded at the TDL?

If you move Coburn, and move in Lauridsen, and Laviolette doesn't tweak the defense, then the bloom will probably fall off that rose real quick. He did a solid job in a limited system and role this season. Can he step in and be a regular if Laviolette is playing his full on system?

It's not necessarily ignoring the future, hanging onto Coburn and Meszaros, it's covering your bases and not asking guys to fill roles they might not be ready to handle

- Jsaquella


The thing is Coburn and Mez to me is its covering your bases to do what though? Win a few more games, or say they made the playoffs?

I dont see a team taking Mez, so thats where Coburn comes in. Having two more slots open, and allowing Guss and Oliver to slide in, is the right move to me.

I also think its the right move now, with the forwards still developing, and being able to give those guys a solid year of on ice mentorship from Timonen.

Regarding Lava, haha I knew you'd bring him into it, but for sure him focusing more on the defensive end of the puck would help those guys develop.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 11 @ 9:36 PM ET
For being the second highest paid defense in the NHL, even with the style they played, that is not good enough.

Like Isiah said I believe, I would definately agree that the d-men probably make what they would get in FA. Thats where better player evaluation comes in, and what players are really worth. Not simply based on what they would make in FA.

Its basically the Carle situation. Sure that is what he may be worth on the market, but is he worth that in reality?

Second highest paid defense. Not good enough. More specifically, not the right mixture, and evaluation of players who are worth their cap hit.

I'd at the end of it just wish the Flyers would realise that Mez and Coburn probably arent worth their hits due to inconsistency and health concerns. Do a better job evaluating that in the future. Look to the future, instead of praying these guys hit some glorious magical/health streak.

Thats La la land optimism to me.

Edit: No real ill will here, just a topic thats been floating through my head.

- flyer_nutter



Well, Meszaros comes off the books next season. Coburn, compared to what's out there, is making close to what you'd pay for a similar replacement.

I mean, if you're going to be happy female doging about Bieksa rather than Coburn, I guess I see your point.

Me, rather than making moves just to make moves, I'd rather slot the guys on hand into their proper roles and ask them to handle the jobs I know they can handle, rather than hope that kids like Gustafsson and Lauridsen can handle the job or go out and trade assets to get similar players to what is here on hand with similar cap hits.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 11 @ 9:36 PM ET
Essentially yes.

I think its time to move on from the Coburn/Mez thing, and allow the young kids Guss/Oliver to slide into permanent top 6 roles with regularity.

Thats all its about at the end of this BM.

- flyer_nutter


And when it turns out that a player like Lauridsen isn't ready for a full time NHL role. Will you then be criticizing Holmgren for not putting a better defense on the ice? I'd bet on it.
GirouxForTheShow
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Fuck you raff
Joined: 01.04.2009

May 11 @ 9:37 PM ET

If there's was one bullet left in the world, I'd use it on Pierre McGuire
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 11 @ 9:38 PM ET
How do you make a serious plan to replace Timonen? Without knowing who is going to be available via free agency or through trades in the future? You have to be patient and see what moves become available. Coburn and Meszaros aren't exactly old and washed up. Both are in their late 20's.
- MJL

But neither will be able to replace Kimmo. We've already talked about possible candidates here. Edler, Yandle, Shattenkirk, are all possibilities this offseason. We've talked about draft candidates. One of Pulock, Zadorov, or Nurse should be available at 11, otherwise a good enough forward will have been bumped down for it to be worth it for us. The opportunities are all there this offseason, it's just a matter of Holgren finding the right opportunity and correctly taking advantage of it.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 11 @ 9:38 PM ET
The thing is Coburn and Mez to me is its covering your bases to do what though? Win a few more games, or say they made the playoffs?

I dont see a team taking Mez, so thats where Coburn comes in. Having two more slots open, and allowing Guss and Oliver to slide in, is the right move to me.

I also think its the right move now, with the forwards still developing, and being able to give those guys a solid year of on ice mentorship from Timonen.

Regarding Lava, haha I knew you'd bring him into it, but for sure him focusing more on the defensive end of the puck would help those guys develop.

- flyer_nutter


Gustafsson is on this team unless he plays his way out of it, in addition to Meszaros and Coburn as of right now. Lauridsen cannot replace Coburn or a healthy Meszaros. And your making far too much of this mentoring by Timonen. That is what Coaches are for.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 11 @ 9:39 PM ET
If there's was one bullet left in the world, I'd use it on Pierre McGuire
- GirouxForTheShow

I would just you it on Crosby's d#ck, then Pierre would no longer have anything to live for.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 11 @ 9:39 PM ET
But neither will be able to replace Kimmo. We've already talked about possible candidates here. Edler, Yandle, Shattenkirk, are all possibilities this offseason. We've talked about draft candidates. One of Pulock, Zadorov, or Nurse should be available at 11, otherwise a good enough forward will have been bumped down for it to be worth it for us. The opportunities are all there this offseason, it's just a matter of Holgren finding the right opportunity and correctly taking advantage of it.
- JAKEw1234


No one is expecting them to replace Timonen.
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