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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Stuart: Grading the Defensemen
Author Message
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

May 11 @ 4:32 PM ET
Why?

Malone is on his way out this season or next, offense is not a problem (remember how many young guns we still have that haven't even seen the NHL ice yet) and Palat or Panik are among them, just with a cup of coffee with the big club.

Offensive players are no issue for us. Namestnikov, Connolly, Killorn etc... or Stamkos, Purcell already at the NHL level. If we're in tough for a 2nd line winger at any point, that's not a bad thing to have to go the FA or trade route for.

Our problem is on the blueline. Barbeiro looks to be a decent find, but needs a lot more seasoning before he'll be able to crack the top 4. Outside of Hedman and Carle, the drop-off for top-4 blueliners on this squad (or potential in the minors) is pretty limited for the next few years.

I like Carle, but we don't need another free agent spend-o-rama like him. And that being said, I don't like seeing Carle getting too many minutes - he can play them, but his quality of play dips past 18mins/game.

Gudas will never be a marquee top-pairing guy. But that's fine- let him play his game and he'll reward us by being a solid bottom pairing guy for now, maybe a mid-pairing guy in a couple of years.

- OzBolts

What happened to that patience you had earlier? So we trade a pick that could yield a potential point per game player (the pick) and a prospect. For another defenseman that plays well in a defense first system? We need to turf Brewer, sign Scuderi and we are solid enough with them and Bishop to compete for a playoff spot.
OzBolts
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Halifax, NS
Joined: 05.09.2013

May 11 @ 4:42 PM ET
What happened to that patience you had earlier? So we trade a pick that could yield a potential point per game player (the pick) and a prospect. For another defenseman that plays well in a defense first system? We need to turf Brewer, sign Scuderi and we are solid enough with them and Bishop to compete for a playoff spot.
- Artyukhin76



Patience in a full plan doesn't mean no action whatsoever.

Yandle is a premier D-man in this league, still young, and plays well in all 3 zones. He can log a ton of minutes, ice water for veins, and is the kind of player we are missing both on the farm, and that we will NOT get from drafting anytime soon, unless we tank like heck next year, or somehow land Seth Jones. Furthermore, we would have to pay 8m+ per season if we were to get on FA market- if we could even convince a guy like that to come to Tampa... whenever one becomes available... which is extremely rare.

I have full belief in what we DO have, but am not going to bury my head in the sand and hope that we all of a sudden create a top-pairing D-man out of thin air.

Part of team building is creating strength at certain positions, giving you the opportunity to deal from your strength against a glaring weakness.
FlyerAdam30
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Sewell, NJ
Joined: 04.15.2012

May 11 @ 5:38 PM ET
You're going to be disappointed if you expect more from Carle than what you got this yr. He's a good player, not great. Solid #3 or 4 on a championship caliber team. With all the flyers problems on D, we sure aren't an organization that lets players walk, he simply priced himself out with the offer he got with Tampa. For the money he makes now he prob will always seem underwhelming. But still a solid player
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

May 11 @ 5:57 PM ET
Patience in a full plan doesn't mean no action whatsoever.

Yandle is a premier D-man in this league, still young, and plays well in all 3 zones. He can log a ton of minutes, ice water for veins, and is the kind of player we are missing both on the farm, and that we will NOT get from drafting anytime soon, unless we tank like heck next year, or somehow land Seth Jones. Furthermore, we would have to pay 8m+ per season if we were to get on FA market- if we could even convince a guy like that to come to Tampa... whenever one becomes available... which is extremely rare.

I have full belief in what we DO have, but am not going to bury my head in the sand and hope that we all of a sudden create a top-pairing D-man out of thin air.

Part of team building is creating strength at certain positions, giving you the opportunity to deal from your strength against a glaring weakness.

- OzBolts

Hedman is almost there. We need a proven Vet and that won't cost the earth. When Salo is gone we have Korobov and Sustr. When Carle's contract is up we have Koekkoek. I'm content to build from within.
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

May 11 @ 6:00 PM ET
You're going to be disappointed if you expect more from Carle than what you got this yr. He's a good player, not great. Solid #3 or 4 on a championship caliber team. With all the flyers problems on D, we sure aren't an organization that lets players walk, he simply priced himself out with the offer he got with Tampa. For the money he makes now he prob will always seem underwhelming. But still a solid player
- FlyerAdam30

I like Carle. Not flashy, but 80% of the time he makes good choices on the ice. In A full season you'll get 35+ points and a positive plus/minus.
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

May 11 @ 6:36 PM ET
If Yzerman still wants a defenseman at 3 and Seth Jones is gone, do you think he'd go for Nikita Zadorov? He does have a tendency to go after big body defenseman like Aulie, Korobov and Sustr.
RileyB77
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Canada
Joined: 03.10.2013

May 11 @ 6:52 PM ET
If Yzerman still wants a defenseman at 3 and Seth Jones is gone, do you think he'd go for Nikita Zadorov? He does have a tendency to go after big body defenseman like Aulie, Korobov and Sustr.
- Artyukhin76


man I hope not...to be honest im sooooooo content with what we have heading into next season with our team from this season and our 3rd ....very content and expect much more with it...maybe a couple moves on the blueline in the summer, or perhaps just the addition of some AHL studs like barberio...sustr will be ready..perhaps after a couple games barberio will get the engine rolling and be a monster of an offensive defenseman...but overall I would be crushed if we traded panik or Johnson or killorn or palat or brown or that European centerman that I don't know his name (starts with an N) lol... I have big expectations, all I think we need to turn this team is the ingredient of consistency and stop (frank)ing with the puck in the neutral zone/break out and giving it away and wed be solid...look at our offense...look at our goalies...look at our defenseman, its not that bad on defense, just a lack of full potential and stupid mistakes

im beyond excited for next season if the consistency and giveaways are corrected and the defense step up to play, great grades Michael all very accurate
FlyerAdam30
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Sewell, NJ
Joined: 04.15.2012

May 11 @ 6:52 PM ET
I like Carle. Not flashy, but 80% of the time he makes good choices on the ice. In A full season you'll get 35+ points and a positive plus/minus.
- Artyukhin76

Agreed. Flyers missed him this year overpaid or not
OzBolts
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Halifax, NS
Joined: 05.09.2013

May 11 @ 6:58 PM ET
Hedman is almost there. We need a proven Vet and that won't cost the earth. When Salo is gone we have Korobov and Sustr. When Carle's contract is up we have Koekkoek. I'm content to build from within.
- Artyukhin76


Proven Vet- that's Yandle. Had some huge playoff games, been a clutch player and a leader for PHX. He's young, but has already has 6 years of experience. 413 games, over 200 points.

For post season, he had a few years in the dance, including a conference final, and performed very, very well in all situations.


Korobov and Sustr are yet unproven in any sense of the word. The former has not played in the NHL at all, as of yet, and the latter could be another flame out college player. Both could be great, but neither projects to be more than a #4 at this time, and even that has very little base.

Koekkoek can't stay healthy, to this point. Those issues will stunt the growth of a player. Even if he projected as a top-pairing guy, he hasn't had the normal time to develop, even to this stage. He could end up setting the world on fire, but history shows these kinds of issues with a player so young usually either add on a couple of years for development necessary, stall their career (never reach potential) or run them out of the pros.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on this one, my friend.
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

May 11 @ 7:44 PM ET
Proven Vet- that's Yandle. Had some huge playoff games, been a clutch player and a leader for PHX. He's young, but has already has 6 years of experience. 413 games, over 200 points.

For post season, he had a few years in the dance, including a conference final, and performed very, very well in all situations.


Korobov and Sustr are yet unproven in any sense of the word. The former has not played in the NHL at all, as of yet, and the latter could be another flame out college player. Both could be great, but neither projects to be more than a #4 at this time, and even that has very little base.

Koekkoek can't stay healthy, to this point. Those issues will stunt the growth of a player. Even if he projected as a top-pairing guy, he hasn't had the normal time to develop, even to this stage. He could end up setting the world on fire, but history shows these kinds of issues with a player so young usually either add on a couple of years for development necessary, stall their career (never reach potential) or run them out of the pros.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on this one, my friend.

- OzBolts

Gudas was an unproven AHL player at too. I don't want another defenseman that will cost a (frank)ing fortune when we have Hedman. Scuderi or Ference for a few years wouldn't cost the earth and would give our youngsters time to develop. Koekkoek took hard hits and he's young.
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

May 11 @ 8:04 PM ET
Proven Vet- that's Yandle. Had some huge playoff games, been a clutch player and a leader for PHX. He's young, but has already has 6 years of experience. 413 games, over 200 points.

For post season, he had a few years in the dance, including a conference final, and performed very, very well in all situations.


Korobov and Sustr are yet unproven in any sense of the word. The former has not played in the NHL at all, as of yet, and the latter could be another flame out college player. Both could be great, but neither projects to be more than a #4 at this time, and even that has very little base.

Koekkoek can't stay healthy, to this point. Those issues will stunt the growth of a player. Even if he projected as a top-pairing guy, he hasn't had the normal time to develop, even to this stage. He could end up setting the world on fire, but history shows these kinds of issues with a player so young usually either add on a couple of years for development necessary, stall their career (never reach potential) or run them out of the pros.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on this one, my friend.

- OzBolts


With OEL, my feeling is that you could get Yandle for less than the third overall pick + a great offensive prospect.
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

May 11 @ 9:10 PM ET
Not much of a point. Finding a 2nd line center for anything less than $5m at this point on the open market is pretty tough. That, and you don't know what you're getting- did the FA have a career year? Will he adjust? etc etc.

The extra, say, 2.7m cap hit for Vinny isn't really all that rough. I've said it before, Vinny is overpaid for what he is, but he is still a solid player- and the Bolts know what they're getting with him: secondary scoring, a great PP guy, physical, gritty, plays the game the right way and a heck of a leader on and off the ice.

If the Bolts want to buy him out, they can just wait a few years and do it when his contract starts dipping (massively) in pay. Malone might fetch a mid-late draft pick and Brewer ... I'm not sure. I feel like he is owed another season to redeem himself, but boy oh boy... that was a ROUGH season.


As for the blog, great job as always, Michael. Can't disagree with a single assessment you've made towards our D.

As for next year (time to start a baseless rumour), what about a trade of our 3rd overall, Malone and, say, Panik/Palat/Barbeiro for Keith Yandle? I know PHX has some great young D-men coming up- could the 'Yotes be convinced to give up a guy like Yandle. He seems to be exactly what would drag the Bolts D from mediocre to very good.

- OzBolts


I think not buying out Vinny next summer would be a mistake. Stamkos is a Crosby/Malkin/Ovi level player so he should get that type of money, Hedman should get a decent paycheck as well.

Vinny is getting paid almost 8 mil for 7 more years. His production will only decrease. That Cap hit will be a huge burden and will limit your teams depth in the future.

It wont be so bad for the next 2-3 years, however long term when TBL are fighting for the cup with Stamkos in his prime (which he is now but still), Vinny's contract could be what prevents you from making the trade you need to push you that extra mile.

Just my opinion.
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

May 11 @ 9:13 PM ET
Not sure. Draft a great young player, but if the Yotes are still in Phoenix at the end of the entry level contract, it'd be hard to resign him due to money issues and whatnot.

We're mostly trying to live on one year vets that either succeed (Whitney) or fail (Sullivan).

- jugkope


Thats a fairly invalid answer because you are losing so much Cap hit from trading away yandle.

Only OEL would be more important to your team than a Drouin or a Mckinnon
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

May 11 @ 9:16 PM ET
If Yzerman still wants a defenseman at 3 and Seth Jones is gone, do you think he'd go for Nikita Zadorov? He does have a tendency to go after big body defenseman like Aulie, Korobov and Sustr.
- Artyukhin76


If drouin is there then you without a doubt take him as St. Louis replacement(if you really could, but Drouin would be THE player to do it). Have St.louis mentor him in his last few years. No brainer if you ask me.
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

May 11 @ 9:22 PM ET
With OEL, my feeling is that you could get Yandle for less than the third overall pick + a great offensive prospect.
- Michael_Stuart


I think Yandle's value will be determined by the market for him rather than the teams necessity. I think it would come down to which ever team would be willing to overpay the most.

If Yandle was for sure being shopped do you think you would outbid a team like philly?

The last I heard PHO was looking for a top line center plus another roster player and a pick/prospect for him. The #3 pick would take place of the center but what else would you add? No way Pho wants Malone or Brewer either
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

May 11 @ 10:51 PM ET
If drouin is there then you without a doubt take him as St. Louis replacement(if you really could, but Drouin would be THE player to do it). Have St.louis mentor him in his last few years. No brainer if you ask me.
- Meeqsb


Agree with this.
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

May 11 @ 10:51 PM ET
I think Yandle's value will be determined by the market for him rather than the teams necessity. I think it would come down to which ever team would be willing to overpay the most.

If Yandle was for sure being shopped do you think you would outbid a team like philly?

The last I heard PHO was looking for a top line center plus another roster player and a pick/prospect for him. The #3 pick would take place of the center but what else would you add? No way Pho wants Malone or Brewer either

- Meeqsb


No, that's why I don't see it happening. Detroit and Philly would both have huge bids for Yandle, should he become widely available.
Meeqsb
Colorado Avalanche
Location: Denver
Joined: 10.13.2011

May 11 @ 11:15 PM ET
No, that's why I don't see it happening. Detroit and Philly would both have huge bids for Yandle, should he become widely available.
- Michael_Stuart


I think thats alright though as I don't see Yandle as a player thats the best fit for TBL.

Idk, I just guess I cant really seem to get a feel or Identity for this team. I think TBL just needs to work on finding a more defined core and then build outward from there. Is there any legitimacy to this thought or is it just my lack of familiarity with this team?

Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

May 11 @ 11:35 PM ET
I think thats alright though as I don't see Yandle as a player thats the best fit for TBL.

Idk, I just guess I cant really seem to get a feel or Identity for this team. I think TBL just needs to work on finding a more defined core and then build outward from there. Is there any legitimacy to this thought or is it just my lack of familiarity with this team?

- Meeqsb


No, I would tend to agree with you. There's a lot of good pieces here, but you're right that we need a stable core to move forward with. With the bounty of young players coming up and getting ready to suit up in the NHL, I think that this next season could be real good for the Lightning in that respect.
gomer300
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 02.02.2007

May 12 @ 1:23 AM ET
I miss Salo on the Canucks. His talent for playing as many games as he did while being made entirely of glass makes his reputation, but the Canucks' win-loss ratio while he was in the line-up over the past several years was pretty telling. He's worth what he's paid, and then some, but his reputation raises question marks for people outside the know - Yzerman's not really outside the know.
Boltdolt84
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: FL
Joined: 11.05.2012

May 12 @ 2:46 AM ET
wow, Johnson sure is lighting it up in the playoffs.. tied for the league lead with 13 points in 5 games (6g,7a), the tie has played 2 more games.. where is his ceiling Michael and where do you think he starts the season? I would think unquestionably with the big club, but 3rd line? i guess with V4 slotted 2C its hard to put him anywhere else.. happy to know secondary scoring shouldn't be a problem next year..

I also wanted your opinion on Gudas.. I hear everyone say bottom pairing but he has played so smart on the puck and his hits just demolish people.. is it crazy to wish for a Hedman-Gudas combo a few years down?
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

May 12 @ 2:49 AM ET
wow, Johnson sure is lighting it up in the playoffs.. tied for the league lead with 13 points in 5 games (6g,7a), the tie has played 2 more games.. where is his ceiling Michael and where do you think he starts the season? I would think unquestionably with the big club, but 3rd line? i guess with V4 slotted 2C its hard to put him anywhere else.. happy to know secondary scoring shouldn't be a problem next year..

I also wanted your opinion on Gudas.. I hear everyone say bottom pairing but he has played so smart on the puck and his hits just demolish people.. is it crazy to wish for a Hedman-Gudas combo a few years down?

- Boltdolt84


Most likely third line for Tyler Johnson. Like you say, it's hard to put VL4 anywhere else. I like Johnson on that third line, but with him there that means that Yzerman needs to put some size on the wings.

As for Gudas, I see him as a perfect second pairing guy. He's not flashy, but man is he ever solid. He doesn't make mistakes, he skates well, and he does the little things right. I'd be interested to see a Hedman-Gudas pairing, but my long-term feeling is that Hedman will be the fixture on the first pairing while Gudas is on the second.
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

May 12 @ 2:50 AM ET
I miss Salo on the Canucks. His talent for playing as many games as he did while being made entirely of glass makes his reputation, but the Canucks' win-loss ratio while he was in the line-up over the past several years was pretty telling. He's worth what he's paid, and then some, but his reputation raises question marks for people outside the know - Yzerman's not really outside the know.
- gomer300


Boltdolt84
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: FL
Joined: 11.05.2012

May 12 @ 2:56 AM ET
Most likely third line for Tyler Johnson. Like you say, it's hard to put VL4 anywhere else. I like Johnson on that third line, but with him there that means that Yzerman needs to put some size on the wings.

As for Gudas, I see him as a perfect second pairing guy. He's not flashy, but man is he ever solid. He doesn't make mistakes, he skates well, and he does the little things right. I'd be interested to see a Hedman-Gudas pairing, but my long-term feeling is that Hedman will be the fixture on the first pairing while Gudas is on the second.

- Michael_Stuart


well put.. I wonder if Johnson could ever jump on wing with Vinny and MSL.. I'm sure Cooper will try some variations and see what works. needing size on the 3rd likely puts us in the FA hunt.. Connolly and Panik could work great on 3rd.. Ive been thinking that Panik is a great replacement for Malone and that guy is only getting better.
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

May 12 @ 3:06 AM ET
well put.. I wonder if Johnson could ever jump on wing with Vinny and MSL.. I'm sure Cooper will try some variations and see what works. needing size on the 3rd likely puts us in the FA hunt.. Connolly and Panik could work great on 3rd.. Ive been thinking that Panik is a great replacement for Malone and that guy is only getting better.
- Boltdolt84


One hundred percent agree with that. Panik makes Malone expendable in a lot of ways. His size and skill-set make him very attractive to the organization, and I look forward to seeing what he can do with full-time duty.

The one thing I do want to be careful of is suiting up too much youth. The Lightning need a veteran presence added if they are going to get rid of Malone, IMO.
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