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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Gustafsson Stands Out, Bryz vs. USA, Canada vs. Norway
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JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 7 @ 3:31 PM ET
That chart states than the sum of the 8th, 12th, and 16th overall picks are worth more than the first overall. I'm gonna have to argue that one.
- jmatchett383

That would be an underpayment, but then again I think of the 1st overall as being more off of the chart, seeing as I don't think anyone's ever traded out of the 1st overall spot (atleast not for just draft picks), I would say consider it unreachable or nearly unreachable.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 7 @ 3:34 PM ET
It's not meant to be an exact formula... it's just an estimation of cost. Here's the original article which fully explains the though process and the margin for error:
http://www.broadstreethoc...aft-pick-value-trading-up

Note this passage specifically:

- Tomahawk

Ah, well then either take what I said originally and change one of the seconds to a slightly more valuable asset, or just consider it as them trading for the number 6 or 7, and maybe taking a 2nd rounder out or getting another asset in return.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

May 7 @ 3:36 PM ET
That would be an underpayment, but then again I think of the 1st overall as being more off of the chart, seeing as I don't think anyone's ever traded out of the 1st overall spot (atleast not for just draft picks), I would say consider it unreachable or nearly unreachable.
- JAKEw1234

Quite frankly, I would consider this whole chart thing a big crock of the ol' bullpoop soup, because you can't put a tangible algorithm onto something intangible. With draft picks and trading, there are personal preferences and mindsets of the GMs (e.g. quantity for quality or vice versa with regards to picks), rebuilding teams, organizational methods and plans, teams reaching for players they really want, unforeseen players dropping like stones in the draft....There are different draft crops and different strengths and weaknesses of the teams drafting and the strength of the draft class on a yearly basis. There's too many human variables. It's all a moot point.
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

May 7 @ 3:38 PM ET
I figured youd say it wasn't realistic, but atleast tell me where it got unfeasible
- JAKEw1234

Not unFeasible at all. It addresses all our needs. I wouldn't put qnything past homer. Lol. Email that proposal to homer and get the ball rolling.
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

May 7 @ 3:43 PM ET
Not unFeasible at all. It addresses all our needs. I wouldn't put qnything past homer. Lol. Email that proposal to homer and get the ball rolling.
- SMS4016

2Real is our designated email liaison to Homer, ty.
JFlyers00
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NYC (kill me) , NJ
Joined: 11.24.2011

May 7 @ 3:44 PM ET
Anyone think Edler is a possible target? I do
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 7 @ 3:47 PM ET
Quite frankly, I would consider this whole chart thing a big crock of the ol' bullpoop soup, because you can't put a tangible algorithm onto something intangible. With draft picks and trading, there are personal preferences and mindsets of the GMs (e.g. quantity for quality or vice versa with regards to picks), rebuilding teams, organizational methods and plans, teams reaching for players they really want, unforeseen players dropping like stones in the draft....There are different draft crops and different strengths and weaknesses of the teams drafting and the strength of the draft class on a yearly basis. There's too many human variables. It's all a moot point.
- Giroux_Is_God



Yes, it's a very macro study, but it's pretty interesting nonetheless.

The findings definitely shouldn't be used to sling around trade proposals.
Chris48
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gatineau
Joined: 10.21.2011

May 7 @ 3:47 PM ET
Don't think that get's it done either. LA will find away around the Cap issues without trading a quality young defenseman.
- MJL



Maybe L.A. won't trade him.... But Voynov is not untouchable at this point I would think. Homer would have to overpay to acquire him but his young age and huge potential and also the fact that he puts up 0.50 points/game playing behind Doughty on the 2nd pairing sure makes it tempting to take that risk.


We cannot go 2-3 more years without that puck moving defenseman. I rather overpay for a quality guy now that still has huge potential without destroying our nucleus of young players. I prefer that scenario than exploring the weak free agency market for a Dman or waiting for a top D prospects to develop in a few years. Trading for Yandle is way too expensive as the rumored/speculated price for him is Couturier + B. Schenn +






phi1671
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 08.06.2007

May 7 @ 3:47 PM ET
People don't feel like they need to tap into the civility they were raised with when dealing with anonymous posters on a thread. While I understand what you're talking about and try not to get involved in it, the internet pretty much unlearns all the lessons taught growing up in the school yard.

You can bet your last buck that if these discussions were face to face a completely different tenor would be set.

All that being true, this thread in particular doesn't get all that bad and the few well muscled internet giants can be ignored for the most part. There are some posters who I honestly wonder why others even engage.

- mayorofangrytown



Good point Mayor
phi1671
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 08.06.2007

May 7 @ 3:48 PM ET
Agreed however there seem to be some posters on here that literally argue or challenge opinions for sake of just doing it. I've learned to just not engage in it cause those battles go nowhere.
- flyerfan28


This is an excellent point too and it's pushed a few posters away.

JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 7 @ 3:51 PM ET
Maybe L.A. won't trade him.... But Voynov is not untouchable at this point I would think. Homer would have to overpay to acquire him but his young age and huge potential and also the fact that he puts up 0.50 points/game playing behind Doughty on the 2nd pairing sure makes it tempting to take that risk.


We cannot go 2-3 more years without that puck moving defenseman. I rather overpay for a quality guy now that still has huge potential without destroying our nucleus of young players. I prefer that scenario than exploring the weak free agency market for a Dman or waiting for a top D prospects to develop in a few years. Trading for Yandle is way too expensive as the rumored/speculated price for him is Couturier + B. Schenn +

- Chris48

I don't really want Yandle, sure he can put up 50+ points a season, but isn't his defensive game lacking and his physical game sub par? The best D men are 2-way.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 7 @ 3:53 PM ET
Yes, it's a very macro study, but it's pretty interesting nonetheless.

The findings definitely shouldn't be used to sling around trade proposals.

- Tomahawk

But it does give a good basis on what a realistic trade might be. If none of the 4 teams between #4 and #7 would even take a look at a trade like that then they're either very content on keeping their pick or are being unrealistic in it's value. Sure it's a perfect trade, but still attention-grabbing.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

May 7 @ 3:54 PM ET
one of these days someone will make a hockey site where you dont have to friegin scroll through millions of posts to see if you got any replies!
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

May 7 @ 3:57 PM ET
Maybe L.A. won't trade him.... But Voynov is not untouchable at this point I would think. Homer would have to overpay to acquire him but his young age and huge potential and also the fact that he puts up 0.50 points/game playing behind Doughty on the 2nd pairing sure makes it tempting to take that risk.


We cannot go 2-3 more years without that puck moving defenseman. I rather overpay for a quality guy now that still has huge potential without destroying our nucleus of young players. I prefer that scenario than exploring the weak free agency market for a Dman or waiting for a top D prospects to develop in a few years. Trading for Yandle is way too expensive as the rumored/speculated price for him is Couturier + B. Schenn +

- Chris48


So which 2 of Simmonds, Couturier, B. Schenn, and Voracek would you send there for Voynov?
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 7 @ 3:58 PM ET
So which 2 of Simmonds, Couturier, B. Schenn, and Voracek would you send there for Voynov?
- jmatchett383

L.A doesn't need offense
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 7 @ 4:01 PM ET
I figured youd say it wasn't realistic, but atleast tell me where it got unfeasible
- JAKEw1234



Here's what works for me. I remove my Flyers fan hat and try to look at a trade from an objective viewpoint, without the bias of a rooting interest in a team. As much as that is possible. That gives you the answer.

You seem to think that a quantity of decent assets, or assets a few years down the road, is going to to get one high quality asset now.
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 7 @ 4:03 PM ET
But it does give a good basis on what a realistic trade might be. If none of the 4 teams between #4 and #7 would even take a look at a trade like that then they're either very content on keeping their pick or are being unrealistic in it's value. Sure it's a perfect trade, but still attention-grabbing.
- JAKEw1234



It's ballpark value, at best.

And before you go trading away our 2014-2015 picks, assuming the Flyers will be better and they won't be lottery picks, just remember that Brian Burke made that kind of gamble with the Phil Kessel deal and look how that ended up.
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

May 7 @ 4:05 PM ET
L.A doesn't need offense
- JAKEw1234

The time to strike was before they traded for Carter. Timing has to be right on some of these deals ala jvr/scheen.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 7 @ 4:06 PM ET
I understand the best player available concept. And that's fine. But if they go that route and it's a center they draft they better move a center to address other needs. Whether its a winger dman goalie. That's why I say draft for a need. Or trade picks and coots for a dman. Or winger. Just something. Coots as a 3rd line center for the next 3to 5 years makes me sick. It's a waste. To get a true #1 we are going to overpay I've always said that. I don't care who they trade b screen coburn read grossman picks galore as long as we get the best player in the deal and do t give the whole core away. I'm not saying make a lindros trade for a yandle type dman. I have confidence in homer. Maybe we font get the dman this year. We got mason. Ho get the winger this year if possible and dman next year. Whatever homer will do something. Still think good time to be flyers fan. All in all we only need a few pieces I think everyone agrees it's just how and who to use to get them. Still rather be in phillys position than say a buffalo or Calgary. Lol
- SMS4016



honestly, I don't know how many times Couturier as a 3rd line Center has to be discussed. You can pigeon hole him there all you want. Doesn't mean that's where he is going to play for next 3 to 5 years. if Couturier meets his potential, the Flyers have two top Centers. One who is a top offensive player in the League. And one who is one of the top 2 way Centers in the League.

And I'll repeat again what I've said to you multiple times. Tell me what #1 Defenseman we can realistically get. And I'm likely all in on overpaying for him.
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

May 7 @ 4:07 PM ET
It's ballpark value, at best.

And before you go trading away our 2014-2015 picks, assuming the Flyers will be better and they won't be lottery picks, just remember that Brian Burke made that kind of gamble with the Phil Kessel deal and look how that ended up.

- Tomahawk

In fairness we have tons of talent whereas Toronto had squat. It's a safe bet we will and should not be lottery pick eligible for a long time.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 7 @ 4:09 PM ET
Here's what works for me. I remove my Flyers fan hat and try to look at a trade from an objective viewpoint, without the bias of a rooting interest in a team. As much as that is possible. That gives you the answer.

You seem to think that a quantity of decent assets, or assets a few years down the road, is going to to get one high quality asset now.

- MJL

This one was made more with numbers and less with opinions. The only opinion in the whole proposition was that Matt Read was worth atleast the value of a mid 2nd round pick, and I think even fans of other teams can agree with that. I can see your point about it being more assets of lesser value, but also, wouldn't you argue that Matt Read and 2 1st round picks would be way too much of an over payment? this is Matt Read, 1 1st rounder, and 3 2nd rounders. The only reason that I say 2015 1st is because we host next year, and I still firmly believe that a team should have the 1st rounder in the year they host, but I guess it could be interchanged. If you want, we'll say it's a 2014 1st rounder. Is it still too much in the Flyers favor for you?
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

May 7 @ 4:10 PM ET
It's ballpark value, at best.

And before you go trading away our 2014-2015 picks, assuming the Flyers will be better and they won't be lottery picks, just remember that Brian Burke made that kind of gamble with the Phil Kessel deal and look how that ended up.

- Tomahawk

Personally, I think that trade worked out pretty well... for Boston.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 7 @ 4:10 PM ET
Quite frankly, I would consider this whole chart thing a big crock of the ol' bullpoop soup, because you can't put a tangible algorithm onto something intangible. With draft picks and trading, there are personal preferences and mindsets of the GMs (e.g. quantity for quality or vice versa with regards to picks), rebuilding teams, organizational methods and plans, teams reaching for players they really want, unforeseen players dropping like stones in the draft....There are different draft crops and different strengths and weaknesses of the teams drafting and the strength of the draft class on a yearly basis. There's too many human variables. It's all a moot point.
- Giroux_Is_God



Totally agree. Well said.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 7 @ 4:13 PM ET
I don't really want Yandle, sure he can put up 50+ points a season, but isn't his defensive game lacking and his physical game sub par? The best D men are 2-way.
- JAKEw1234



Yandle would add an element to the Flyers that would help them a great deal. He is not great defensively. He is adequate if used correctly. He is not at all physical. I would reluctantly trade B Schenn for him. But I think Phoenix is looking for more for him.
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 7 @ 4:13 PM ET
Personally, I think that trade worked out pretty well... for Boston.
- BulliesPhan87


Don't forget Tuukka Rask for Andrew Raycroft, lol.

JFJ and BB deserve statues outside of TD Garden.
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