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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Fedotenko; Which D Stay or Go?
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Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 1 @ 6:33 PM ET
It's not like we're trading Mez for hamilton alone. He's not in the trade for value. He's in the trade so Boston is possibly less concerned on who plays where hamilton was playing. He isn't a necessary part of the trade. We could dump him on another team and the trade would still be considered an outstanding over payment on our part.
- JAKEw1234


Boston's more concerned with paying Tuukka Rask next season than replacing the kid who was their 5th or 6th defenseman for much of the year. Meszaros makes that more difficult.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 1 @ 6:34 PM ET
Again, Karlsson is the on guy you mentioned that has won a Norris out of that group. So I'd say rating him below Doughty, Hamilton, et al. is pretty bad miss.
- Jsaquella

Right and they can't always be correct, but they rated him 1.0 off of what he actually is. If hamilton ends up being an 8.0, it'd be a good day. The trend there is still that noone underplays when rated that highly. Even though he hasn't won a norris, Doughty is still an elite defenseman
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

May 1 @ 6:36 PM ET
It's not like we're trading Mez for hamilton alone. He's not in the trade for value. He's in the trade so Boston is possibly less concerned on who plays where hamilton was playing. He isn't a necessary part of the trade. We could dump him on another team and the trade would still be considered an outstanding over payment on our part.
- JAKEw1234

How does replacing Hamilton with a guy that costs more and has shoulders made out of glass make them feel any better?

Boston isn't a likely trading partner with us anyway.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 1 @ 6:36 PM ET
Boston's more concerned with paying Tuukka Rask next season than replacing the kid who was their 5th or 6th defenseman for much of the year. Meszaros makes that more difficult.
- Jsaquella

and he's not a necessary part of it, as I said. We could dump him on a different team
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

May 1 @ 6:38 PM ET
I want some of these guys in my Dynasty League. I have Hamilton, Subban...even Ty Rattie's waiting on my minor league roster. I could make a killing.
- tangent_man


Saw this today (WHL Bantam draft)

Tyler Benson really got people talking when he broke Portland Winterhawks star Ty Rattie’s bantam scoring record with the SSAC Lions, racking up 57 goals and 146 points in 33 games.

http://ca.sports.yahoo.co...ntam-draft-060434322.html
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 1 @ 6:39 PM ET
Right and they can't always be correct, but they rated him 1.0 off of what he actually is. If hamilton ends up being an 8.0, it'd be a good day. The trend there is still that noone underplays when rated that highly. Even though he hasn't won a norris, Doughty is still an elite defenseman
- JAKEw1234


You also have to look at the probability of reaching that level. Hamilton is rated a 9.0, but the probability of reaching that is only rated as a C.

Not saying that it's not possible, but Tyler Myers was rated highly after his rookie year and he's been in steady decline since.

If I'm trading what is basically 3 first rounders, especially considering the lack of depth in the Flyers system, it'd be for a guy more accomplished than Hamilton.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

May 1 @ 6:40 PM ET
And one of those picks was used to select Tyler Seguin if I'm not mistaken. Who had a 67 point Season in the NHL as a 20 year old. But by all means, let's trade Couturier AND 2 first round picks for Hamilton.
- MJL

I'm sure he was on our side on this.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 1 @ 6:41 PM ET
How does replacing Hamilton with a guy that costs more and has shoulders made out of glass make them feel any better?
- hereticpride

because then they don't have to play a callup or 7th defenseman. I guess they could sign a UFA just as easily but they tend to be more expensive than their true value and most UFA defensemen this year are old, while Mezaros isn't.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 1 @ 6:42 PM ET
and he's not a necessary part of it, as I said. We could dump him on a different team
- JAKEw1234


Just dumping an asset seems like a dumb idea.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

May 1 @ 6:42 PM ET
Saw this today (WHL Bantam draft)

Tyler Benson really got people talking when he broke Portland Winterhawks star Ty Rattie’s bantam scoring record with the SSAC Lions, racking up 57 goals and 146 points in 33 games.

http://ca.sports.yahoo.co...ntam-draft-060434322.html

- ob18

Looks like someone on his team was a significant goal scorer.

Some lofty expectations on a 14 yr old.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 1 @ 6:45 PM ET
You also have to look at the probability of reaching that level. Hamilton is rated a 9.0, but the probability of reaching that is only rated as a C.

Not saying that it's not possible, but Tyler Myers was rated highly after his rookie year and he's been in steady decline since.

If I'm trading what is basically 3 first rounders, especially considering the lack of depth in the Flyers system, it'd be for a guy more accomplished than Hamilton.

- Jsaquella


Right and it would be a gamble. Myers was rated an 8.0 as a top 2 dman, which I guess you could argue he is. My fear is him being like Erik Johnson, who was rated at 9.0 and, well ya. So it would be a gamble, but Coots and 2 1st rounders isn't buying us an established franchise dman. It could easily buy us the very good possibility at getting that franchise dman. It's not a guaranteed thing, but then again, at 20 years old you could argue neither is Coots.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 1 @ 6:47 PM ET
Just dumping an asset seems like a dumb idea.
- Jsaquella

It's dumping salary, which would be all but necessary if we were to bring in a future franchise defender, and have to resign Giroux and Schenn the next offseason.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

May 1 @ 6:47 PM ET
because then they don't have to play a callup or 7th defenseman. I guess they could sign a UFA just as easily but they tend to be more expensive than their true value and most UFA defensemen this year are old, while Mezaros isn't.
- JAKEw1234

Or they could just keep him amd remain being a very solid team.

I really, truely don't see us making any deal with Boston tho.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 1 @ 6:51 PM ET
Or they could just keep him amd remain being a very solid team.

I really, truely don't see us making any deal with Boston tho.

- hereticpride


They have to trade him to the Flyers. Because we want them too! Either that or St Louis is going to trade us Pietrangelo. They have no choice.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 1 @ 6:52 PM ET
It's dumping salary, which would be all but necessary if we were to bring in a future franchise defender, and have to resign Giroux and Schenn the next offseason.
- JAKEw1234


Meszaros is in the last year of his deal.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

May 1 @ 6:54 PM ET
They have to trade him to the Flyers. Because we want them too! Either that or St Louis is going to trade us Pietrangelo. They have no choice.
- MJL



Sounds like Toronto logic.


Seriously, I could see us msking a deal with the Jets or Yotes. Maybe a small group of other teams out West but an Eastern team is not going to trade us a future franchise D man.
tangent_man
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey
Joined: 11.28.2007

May 1 @ 7:06 PM ET
Saw this today (WHL Bantam draft)

Tyler Benson really got people talking when he broke Portland Winterhawks star Ty Rattie’s bantam scoring record with the SSAC Lions, racking up 57 goals and 146 points in 33 games.

http://ca.sports.yahoo.co...ntam-draft-060434322.html

- ob18


Nice. Another name to file away for a few years.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 1 @ 7:13 PM ET
Or they could just keep him amd remain being a very solid team.

I really, truely don't see us making any deal with Boston tho.

- hereticpride


Like I said, put enough value in a deal and logic has take a break and linger behind. Couturier has the possibility of being an elite forward, as does Schenn. On the low end, they would both potentially be 1st liners. On the ultra low side, they're potential still lands them as being superior second liners. My argument is that while they aren't forced to trade with us, and we certainly aren't entitled to any of these players, the route we have to take is to offer them enough value that they are practically forced to trade to us. The younger we get a player like this, the more of a gamble it is, but on the same note, the cheaper that stupid-to-not-accept value is for him.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 1 @ 7:23 PM ET
Jvr is on the board
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 1 @ 7:25 PM ET
Like I said, put enough value in a deal and logic has take a break and linger behind. Couturier has the possibility of being an elite forward, as does Schenn. On the low end, they would both potentially be 1st liners. On the ultra low side, they're potential still lands them as being superior second liners. My argument is that while they aren't forced to trade with us, and we certainly aren't entitled to any of these players, the route we have to take is to offer them enough value that they are practically forced to trade to us. The younger we get a player like this, the more of a gamble it is, but on the same note, the cheaper that stupid-to-not-accept value is for him.
- JAKEw1234


You overvalue both players IMO.

JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 1 @ 7:27 PM ET
You overvalue both players IMO.
- Just5

Where do you believe Couturier will end up? 1st liner, 2nd liner, or 3rd liner? And I mean skill-wise not what he's actually playing (If he stays in philly I imagine he'll always be a 2nd liner)
And do you have an opinion on where you believe Hamilton will end up?
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

May 1 @ 7:29 PM ET
Like I said, put enough value in a deal and logic has take a break and linger behind. Couturier has the possibility of being an elite forward, as does Schenn. On the low end, they would both potentially be 1st liners. On the ultra low side, they're potential still lands them as being superior second liners. My argument is that while they aren't forced to trade with us, and we certainly aren't entitled to any of these players, the route we have to take is to offer them enough value that they are practically forced to trade to us. The younger we get a player like this, the more of a gamble it is, but on the same note, the cheaper that stupid-to-not-accept value is for him.
- JAKEw1234

Hamilton is still very young though, just as you state. So why not just draft a D man with similar upside in the draft and not put yourself in the position of having to trade anyone? And honestly @ 11 in this draft is going to have guys with just as good if not better upside than Hamilton who was taken @ 9.

If we're gonna trade guys I'd much rather it be for established players, even if that means the cost is a bit higher.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

May 1 @ 7:33 PM ET
Looks like someone on his team was a significant goal scorer.

Some lofty expectations on a 14 yr old.

- mayorofangrytown


No more than Connor McDavid got last year in the OHL
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 1 @ 7:35 PM ET
Where do you believe Couturier will end up? 1st liner, 2nd liner, or 3rd liner? And I mean skill-wise not what he's actually playing (If he stays in philly I imagine he'll always be a 2nd liner)
And do you have an opinion on where you believe Hamilton will end up?

- JAKEw1234


I think he'll end up a solid 2nd line center on a good team. I wouldn't be unhappy if b schenn eventually became a l winger like dustin brown who switched from center to wing. Somewhere between a j Staal and p Bergeron for cooter though

B schenn will bring the scoring punch of a d brown. Let's see if his overall game develops like browns did. I think it will
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

May 1 @ 7:37 PM ET
Hamilton is still very young though, just as you state. So why not just draft a D man with similar upside in the draft and not put yourself in the position of having to trade anyone? And honestly @ 11 in this draft is going to have guys with just as good if not better upside than Hamilton who was taken @ 9.

If we're gonna trade guys I'd much rather it be for established players, even if that means the cost is a bit higher.

- hereticpride

Well, I don't know, actually. If we traded 2 1st rounders I would hope they would be for the 2015 and 2016 draft (2014 draft is in philly, I think they should keep their 1st rounder when they host). I understand that this is a very deep draft. I hear from this comment board that Pulock is going to go lower than his actually talent level should place him. I truly believe that whoever the Flyers pick will be a very good prospect. But I also don't believe that the player we draft will be a future elite defense man. I don't think the player we pick will ever play at the Pietrangelo-Doughty-Karlsson level, unless by some fluked-out 1 in 1,000,000 chance miracle we end up with Seth Jones. I truly believe that Dougie Hamilton has not proven himself to be that player yet, either, but I believe he will, and soon. I believe when he does end up proving himself, if it isn't in an orange and black sweater, we will have missed our opportunity at him. Don't be dismayed by Hamilton being selected at 9th. Teams often get the incorrect notion that they need to draft to fix a current team problem. Great defensemen tend to be picked away from the 1st overall, but most times in the top 10.
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