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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Beyond the Blame Game
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BoomGoesTheCoburn
Location: The Land of the Rising Sun
Joined: 10.27.2009

Mar 27 @ 10:56 PM ET
Anyone in here doing fantasy baseball?
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Mar 27 @ 10:57 PM ET
In my opinion in today's NHL the only way a team can legitimately acquire a true #1 d-man before or during his prime is to draft one. Certainly there are a couple of exceptions with Niedermeyer and Chara. If Jones is viewed as that type of talent to me that is the guy you spend assets on to acquire even if it is costly.
- ravishingone


If that's true then the Flyers should've focused long term and consulted Timo about possibly trading him for assets.
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

Mar 27 @ 10:59 PM ET
Crosby, Mario and Gary could make the selection together.
- canadianpenfan

In a tank!

stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Mar 27 @ 11:00 PM ET
In my opinion in today's NHL the only way a team can legitimately acquire a true #1 d-man before or during his prime is to draft one. Certainly there are a couple of exceptions with Niedermeyer and Chara. If Jones is viewed as that type of talent to me that is the guy you spend assets on to acquire even if it is costly.
- ravishingone


That is the route I would take. I think this team needs to trade some vets and keep adding picks to build the farm system.

Having a farm system with depth allows you to make trades if needed but also provide ELC for players that can give you more bang for the buck.
FlyerGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 06.18.2007

Mar 27 @ 11:01 PM ET
Anyone in here doing fantasy baseball?
- BoomGoesTheCoburn

hopefully a bit later on ... my g/f looks pretty damn good in her yankees night shirt.

not sure if that's the kind of fantasy baseball you were talking about ...
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Mar 27 @ 11:02 PM ET
Anyone in here doing fantasy baseball?
- BoomGoesTheCoburn



Take all A's.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 27 @ 11:04 PM ET
It's the 7th pick, a 2nd pick , another 1st rounder and second rounder. 4 late 20's doesn't come close to that deal, IMO.
- jstross


What if the Flyers pick is first overall? What happens if you can draft a Seth Jones?
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Mar 27 @ 11:05 PM ET
here's a rational scenario for a coburn deal...

- target teams that have an expectation of a cup run that could use exp d of a certain level...not a modry.
- check out their top 2 d prospects. for ex, if MIN thinks they are ready, you won't get dumba, but you may get brodin and a 1st.

- go from team to team, cause there's only a few that qualify and consult w/ your scouts and see who they like.

- make a deal if there's value that exceeds what coburn is. we've seen coby at his best in the past, but he's not going to improve on that. if i come home w/ a 1st in this draft and brodin or a similar deal, I'd have to consider it. it's possible another pick could be included. we made hay when we sucked in '07 and i don't see why exploring this option again is unreasonable.
ravishingone
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 06.30.2007

Mar 27 @ 11:05 PM ET
If that's true then the Flyers should've focused long term and consulted Timo about possibly trading him for assets.
- jstross


My basic point is I don't believe the Flyers have the coaching staff or team to to get them out of the top 5. Hypothetically, they get the third pick in the draft. If Jones is viewed as the next possible franchise d-man, then I would overspend to get to #1. We certainly hope the Flyers won't be picking in the top 5 any time soon, and if Jones is a unique talent, then to me it is worth the risk. In my scenerio, I still think the Flyers have the assets in the organization to make that happen even with Kimmo on the roster.
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Mar 27 @ 11:05 PM ET
What if the Flyers pick is first overall? What happens if you can draft a Seth Jones?
- Jsaquella



Don't do it. Go off the board, the top 5 will all be busts.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Mar 27 @ 11:08 PM ET
Same here, though I had a weird dream involving someone hammering on the inside of my upper front teeth. I've been relativle pain-free since getting home: removing the band-aid from the IV point of entry was the only painful part - 'cause it ripped out so much hair.
- Flyskippy

i swelled up like don corleone...hope that's not your fate.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 27 @ 11:10 PM ET
Don't do it. Go off the board, the top 5 will all be busts.
- canadianpenfan


Bo Horvat it is
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Mar 27 @ 11:17 PM ET
Bo Horvat it is
- Jsaquella



With a name like that you can do no wrong.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Mar 27 @ 11:23 PM ET
What if the Flyers pick is first overall? What happens if you can draft a Seth Jones?
- Jsaquella


I'm in the stay put crowd. No way I trade the #1 pick. I can only go by what people say about the top picks, but it sounds great. Here's what I would do with my limited knoledge:

Trade(if tradable): Briere, Gagne, Feds and Knubble. Get what picks you can.
Get Couts and other young players NHL time if it doesn't mess up their service time.

Get what you can get for what's not coming back or isn't going to be with the team in a few years. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Flyers buyout Timo if they can spend the money elsewhere.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 27 @ 11:25 PM ET
I'm in the stay put crowd. No way I trade the #1 pick. I can only go by what people say about the top picks, but it sounds great. Here's what I would do with my limited knoledge:

Trade(if tradable): Briere, Gagne, Feds and Knubble. Get what picks you can.
Get Couts and other young players NHL time if it doesn't mess up their service time.

Get what you can get for what's not coming back or isn't going to be with the team in a few years. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Flyers buyout Timo if they can spend the money elsewhere.

- jstross


Buying out a one year deal would be moronic. After Briere and "maybe" Bryzgalov, the next name on my list would be Hartnell. Timonen's got a one year deal, he can retire and it comes off the cap, because it's not a multi-year deal
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Mar 27 @ 11:31 PM ET
Buying out a one year deal would be moronic. After Briere and "maybe" Bryzgalov, the next name on my list would be Hartnell. Timonen's got a one year deal, he can retire and it comes off the cap, because it's not a multi-year deal
- Jsaquella


Is it really moronic if you find 3 or 4 young players on 3-5 year deals to help the team with a cap hit of $12 million vs Briere/Timmo? Everyone is way too rigid in their thought application to this exercise. If $12 million can be cleared to get high quality players that will help in years 2,3,4,5.. then do it. Screw next year. However, if that $$$ can't be used to help down the road then by all means spend it.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 27 @ 11:35 PM ET
Is it really moronic if you find 3 or 4 young players on 3-5 year deals to help the team with a cap hit of $12 million vs Briere/Timmo? Everyone is way too rigid in their thought application to this exercise. If $12 million can be cleared to get high quality players that will help in years 2,3,4,5.. then do it. Screw next year. However, if that $$$ can't be used to help down the road then by all means spend it.
- jstross


Yes. Want to lose the $6mm hit? Tell Timonen that you're going with a youth movement and ask him if he'll accept a trade to a contender or if he'd agree to retire as a player and take a one year contract for $6mm to be a scout in Finland.

Using a compliance buyout on a one year deal is wasting an asset.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Mar 27 @ 11:35 PM ET
Buying out a one year deal would be moronic. After Briere and "maybe" Bryzgalov, the next name on my list would be Hartnell. Timonen's got a one year deal, he can retire and it comes off the cap, because it's not a multi-year deal
- Jsaquella


I agree that Flyers management would have to have determined that Hartnell and Bryz were in the long term future plans. If not, and you can improve the future by getting players that would cause cap casualties now it would be wise to buyout Timo.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 27 @ 11:38 PM ET
I agree that Flyers management would have to have determined that Hartnell and Bryz were in the long term future plans. If not, and you can improve the future by getting players that would cause cap casualties now it would be wise to buyout Timo.
- jstross


You're going to need to trade assets to get these young players on smaller deals than Timonen, because those players do not exist in free agency. In the case of the Flyers that means trading off the roster or trading picks. If you're building for the future, why trade picks?
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Mar 27 @ 11:40 PM ET
Yes. Want to lose the $6mm hit? Tell Timonen that you're going with a youth movement and ask him if he'll accept a trade to a contender or if he'd agree to retire as a player and take a one year contract for $6mm to be a scout in Finland.

Using a compliance buyout on a one year deal is wasting an asset.

- Jsaquella


The asset is worthless beyond 2014, but has value at next years trade deadline(similar to this years). If they Flyers cannot gain assets under the current cap that have value beyond 2014 then I agree to keep him. If a team with a puck moving Dman says, we're done with Cambell, Bouwmeister..., we'll take you high 1st rounder and give you some cap relief. If you believe Bryz and Hartnell are critical long term why not buy out Timo?
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Mar 27 @ 11:43 PM ET
You're going to need to trade assets to get these young players on smaller deals than Timonen, because those players do not exist in free agency. In the case of the Flyers that means trading off the roster or trading picks. If you're building for the future, why trade picks?
- Jsaquella


It's a discussion with geometric permutations with an aside of circular logic. I'll say this. I'd trade the 4 aformentioned players and get what I can and go from there.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Mar 27 @ 11:43 PM ET
The asset is worthless beyond 2014, but has value at next years trade deadline(similar to this years). If they Flyers cannot gain assets under the current cap that have value beyond 2014 then I agree to keep him. If a team with a puck moving Dman says, we're done with Cambell, Bouwmeister..., we'll take you high 1st rounder and give you some cap relief. If you believe Bryz and Hartnell are critical long term why not buy out Timo?
- jstross


Even though he is declining, an old and grey Timonen is still by miles the best d-man on the team. That is another issue, but Im not going to open that box.

He has been pretty damn good throughout his whole career, and doesnt have chronic consistency issues (or hasn't had his career defined by them). I strongly believe in mentors for young d-men. Timonen has huge value there, even if he is declining. Just me.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Mar 27 @ 11:50 PM ET
Even though he is declining, an old and grey Timonen is still by miles the best d-man on the team. That is another issue, but Im not going to open that box.

He has been pretty damn good throughout his whole career, and doesnt have chronic consistency issues (or hasn't had his career defined by them). I strongly believe in mentors for young d-men. Timonen has huge value there, even if he is declining. Just me.

- flyer_nutter


I agree. He has huge value at the TD, but way more if his contract was expiring. We have no idea what conversations took place so it is what it is.
BoomGoesTheCoburn
Location: The Land of the Rising Sun
Joined: 10.27.2009

Mar 28 @ 12:00 AM ET
Take all A's.
- canadianpenfan


Maybe if it was an auction draft. Actually, scratch that, flawless plan.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 28 @ 12:01 AM ET
The asset is worthless beyond 2014, but has value at next years trade deadline(similar to this years). If they Flyers cannot gain assets under the current cap that have value beyond 2014 then I agree to keep him. If a team with a puck moving Dman says, we're done with Cambell, Bouwmeister..., we'll take you high 1st rounder and give you some cap relief. If you believe Bryz and Hartnell are critical long term why not buy out Timo?
- jstross


They can add Bouwmeester or Campbell without buying out Timonen, as long as they buy out Briere.

If they buy out Briere and trade, say Matt Read and a 2nd rounder for Bouwmeester, they can afford a top six of Bouwmeester, Schenn, Timonen, Coburn, Grossmann and Meszaros.

No need to do anything else. Then after next season, you have $10mm coming off in Timonen and Meszaros and can still use a buyout on Bryz if he continues to struggle with consistency
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