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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Desperation, Expectations vs. Realities
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MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 14 @ 9:48 AM ET
I see that a lot of the people who feel that Laviolette should be fired are being attacked by others who are reducing the argument into "It's all Lavy's fault"

This sort of moronic simplemindedness belongs on WIP. Nobody is saying that Laviolette is the only one to blame, or that the situation is all his fault. Those that feel that I or others are making that argument are simply ignoring the bulk of what we've been saying or are just trying to be bumholes.

Peter Laviolette has won a Stanley Cup as a head coach. With the right personnel, his system can be fantastic. However, with the wrong personnel, it can fail miserably. Unfortunately, we've seen a template where Laviolette clung tight to his system and failed, despite losing key personnel that made his system effective in Carolina.

In the case of the Flyers, Laviolette's current team is not suited for the system he wants to run. I will not say that he has made no adjustments. There's been tweaks in the defensive coverage, but they are not big changes, and they have been largely ineffective. It also isn't just a one year thing. The signs have been there for awhile.

One trend for the Flyers the last two seasons has been their inability to beat teams that play tight checking systems, with aggressive forechecking and strict discipline. If that team has good offensive talent on top of that discipline, the Flyers have usually been toast.

People also rip Terry Murray, by pointing to his record with the Phantoms. Let's take a look at the talent level on the Phantoms. When he had Sean Couturier and Bryaden Schenn, those two accounted for 61% of the Phantoms offense. Even with those two, the Phantoms weren't very good.

My view is, Murray(and John Paddock for that matter) have solid records and teaching coaches. Murray has a strong record of instilling discipline in teams and getting them to be better two way players on an individual level. This is a largely young team that needs teaching more than motivation. Murray also isn't a guy married to a system. He can coach high scoring teams(as he did in Washington as well as Philly) and he can coach defense first style teams as he did in Los Angeles.

The season is likely not salvageable. No available coach is likely to come in and go 16-3 and squeak into the playoffs. That's why I want somebody to come in and lay a foundation of discipline, good two way play and to break the bad habits that are forming.

I wouldn't bring either Murray or Paddock in as a permanent replacement. But rather as an interim guy to teach and break bad habits. Then I would cast a wide net for a replacement. That's the other consideration.

Most guys I'd want are locked into jobs and it would cost compensation as well as a multi-year contract to get them now. I want to really shake the tree, not automaticall be locked into a Lindy Ruff or Ted Nolan.

Wit until summer and see if a Jon Cooper, Dallas Eakins or Steve Spott is willing and ready to make a jump to the NHL.

- Jsaquella



Great post and I couldn't agree more with the written text part. But I have to give it a failing grade for the lack of Youtube video support. Just doesn't measure up without it.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Mar 14 @ 9:49 AM ET
I agree 100% with you Brad. My biggest fear right now is a panic trade. In a sick way I almost prefer them to just flame out so the Flyers don't move any young pieces in hopes to make a playoff push.
- nastyflyergirl


I agree.

Rangers hold last playoff spot. 53 points pretty well guarantees a playoff spot. Rangers need to play at +2 (25 points from 23 games) in order to reserve their playoff spot. Flyers need to play at +8 rate (28 points from 20 games) to hit 53. Not likely going to happen. If they lose the next game against NJ they would need to go +9 with only 19 games left.

It would appear the season might be over. Best to make long term, rather than short term, player decisions.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 14 @ 9:50 AM ET
hey man, you should attack Homer not me
- vejim


You're the one complaining in two sentence bursts without going any deeper, to back up your issues.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Mar 14 @ 9:50 AM ET
He has traded a lot of draft picks. Two first rounders who would be on the Phantoms now and available as recalls went for Pronger. Didn't see a lot of complaining about that when they went to the SCF.

I agree there's a litany of issues. I wouldn't exonerate Holmgren or the players on hand.

But I do feel that the current roster is better than several teams that currently hold playoff spots. I see other teams with coaches getting a lot more out of far less, while the Flyers try to play a system designed for Pronger and Carle while they have Schenn and Coburn.

I fault Holmgren to a degree, despite him going out and being aggressive in the free agent market last summer. You know he's been kicking tires all over the place just by the amount of games he has scouts at.

But Laviolette has known, since September at the latest, that his defense would be bigger and less mobile than before. That's plenty of time to make changes. He either didn't or made bad ones.

As it stands, this team is an undisciplined mess. The bad habits need to be broken and discipline needs to be instilled. I don't think Laviolette is the man to do it. That's what it boils down to for me. And the sooner that process starts, the better, IMO.

- Jsaquella

i agree w/ you about lavi, but homer has a bigger bite here, IMO. plan B lacking...
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Mar 14 @ 9:50 AM ET
Seems to me that you're complaints are based more on frustration than fact.

I'm asking you what trades you didn't like. The Schenn trade? The Pronger trade? The Richards trade? The Carter trade? The Powe trade? What?

- NickTheKid87

I did not like the JVR trade...sorry but never a big Pronger fan and I think they miss Mike Richards
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 14 @ 9:50 AM ET
I don't think it's the right mix of players to be a contending team. Do I think there is enough talent to be a bottom seeded team in the Eastern Conference? Perhaps if everything broke right. Factor in injuries, and players underachieving etc.. and you have a bunch of games like last night.
- PLindbergh31



I don't think anyone was expecting the Flyers to be a contender. It's about being a playoff team and moving forward as a team. They are instead moving backwards and are going to miss the playoffs.
nastyflyergirl
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: this space for rent, PA
Joined: 09.19.2006

Mar 14 @ 9:51 AM ET
Other then a minor change in defensive zone coverage, yes we do.
- MJL



and with the Flyers all in deep there is little to no back checking support and the flyers defense just backs in. I was at the Buffalo game last week and I was just getting so frustrated watching it having the whole ice in front of me to see (rather than on TV where you get a limited view)
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 14 @ 9:51 AM ET
i agree w/ you about lavi, but homer has a bigger bite here, IMO. plan B lacking...
- isaiah520



Give an example of what type of plan B you are talking about?
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Mar 14 @ 9:51 AM ET
So I have heard numerous arguments about Lava taking the Flyers to the cup that first year and what not... We forget a few things about that cup run. They had the same ups and downs then as they do now. They relied so heavily on their offense that it was their undoing.

Since 2006... the highest Goals allowed per game in the Cup finals, in no particular order, looks like this. Try to pick out the Flyers....

2.6 GA/PG
2.8
2.6
2.3
4.2
3.4
3.1
2.8

This live and die by the offense, kills us..

First round GA/PG last years playoffs...
2.4
4.8
2.6
3.0

Any guesses?
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Mar 14 @ 9:52 AM ET
He has traded a lot of draft picks. Two first rounders who would be on the Phantoms now and available as recalls went for Pronger. Didn't see a lot of complaining about that when they went to the SCF.

I agree there's a litany of issues. I wouldn't exonerate Holmgren or the players on hand.

But I do feel that the current roster is better than several teams that currently hold playoff spots. I see other teams with coaches getting a lot more out of far less, while the Flyers try to play a system designed for Pronger and Carle while they have Schenn and Coburn.

I fault Holmgren to a degree, despite him going out and being aggressive in the free agent market last summer. You know he's been kicking tires all over the place just by the amount of games he has scouts at.

But Laviolette has known, since September at the latest, that his defense would be bigger and less mobile than before. That's plenty of time to make changes. He either didn't or made bad ones.

As it stands, this team is an undisciplined mess. The bad habits need to be broken and discipline needs to be instilled. I don't think Laviolette is the man to do it. That's what it boils down to for me. And the sooner that process starts, the better, IMO.

- Jsaquella


Certainly all fair points. 99% of the time the first domino to fall is the coach. And that will likely be the case here.

There is a chance as next season begins there is a new coach, gm, and goaltender in place.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Mar 14 @ 9:52 AM ET
and with the Flyers all in deep there is little to no back checking support and the flyers defense just backs in. I was at the Buffalo game last week and I was just getting so frustrated watching it having the whole ice in front of me to see (rather than on TV where you get a limited view)
- nastyflyergirl



It's really not that complicated to recognize is it?
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Mar 14 @ 9:52 AM ET
I did not like the JVR trade...sorry but never a big Pronger fan and I think they miss Mike Richards
- vejim


What I'm not understanding is how any of these trades set them back 5 years.
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Mar 14 @ 9:52 AM ET
You're the one complaining in two sentence bursts without going any deeper, to back up your issues.
- Jsaquella

I am not complaining, just not agreeing which some flyer fans dont like
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 14 @ 9:52 AM ET
i agree w/ you about lavi, but homer has a bigger bite here, IMO. plan B lacking...
- isaiah520


Plan B might have been for the "Stanley Cup Winning" head coach to make the needed adjustments.

People keep touting that Stanley Cup, but I haven't seen a great coaching job by any stretch. I see other, non Cup winning coaches doing a lot more with less talent.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Mar 14 @ 9:53 AM ET
I do place blame upstairs. But I also know that the front office made two contract offers to Ryan Suter and Shea Weber that were over $200mm, with half of that in signing bonuses that were guaranteed cash up front.
- Jsaquella


I'm glad they didn't get Suter. They would still be a .500 team but with $7.5m a year tied up in him until 202X.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Mar 14 @ 9:54 AM ET
I did not like the JVR trade...sorry but never a big Pronger fan and I think they miss Mike Richards
- vejim



I hate how everyone treats king richie like royalty..... They barely made the playoffs that cup run and the next year they got swept by the bruins....

As for carter im not even going to talk about his performance in the playoffs for philly...utterly invisible.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Mar 14 @ 9:54 AM ET
I don't think anyone was expecting the Flyers to be a contender. It's about being a playoff team and moving forward as a team. They are instead moving backwards and are going to miss the playoffs.
- MJL


Yes. I said before this season started there was a good chance they would miss the playoffs. When Nashville matched the Weber offer sheet, and Meszaros blew his achilles out a short time later, I knew this defense core was going to be in shambles.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 14 @ 9:54 AM ET
I am not complaining, just not agreeing which some flyer fans dont like
- vejim


You're not agreeing but offering nothing in the way of a counter argument. That's just complaining. Disagreeing involves more than a part of a sentence.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Mar 14 @ 9:56 AM ET
Certainly all fair points. 99% of the time the first domino to fall is the coach. And that will likely be the case here.

There is a chance as next season begins there is a new coach, gm, and goaltender in place.

- PLindbergh31


I would have zero problem with any of that. My preference is to make the coaching move now, to get a better read on the players on hand and who would handle being in a more disciplined and two way system the best
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Mar 14 @ 9:56 AM ET
I agree 100% with you Brad. My biggest fear right now is a panic trade. In a sick way I almost prefer them to just flame out so the Flyers don't move any young pieces in hopes to make a playoff push.
- nastyflyergirl


Holmgren has stated time and again that he's not going to trade from the young core to help fix this season. I'm cautiously optimistic that he won't change his mind.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Mar 14 @ 9:56 AM ET
I did not like the JVR trade...sorry but never a big Pronger fan and I think they miss Mike Richards
- vejim


The difference he made to this team could not be more obvious, but OK.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Mar 14 @ 9:56 AM ET
Give an example of what type of plan B you are talking about?
- MJL

signing carle alone would have given homer a known quantity in an area he was already short on. it would have required some juggling of assets in case the FA mkt worked out, but that's part of his job.
flyers2001
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 01.29.2008

Mar 14 @ 9:57 AM ET
Hopefully by the end of the year, we get some call ups and produce a 4th line of:
Rinaldo - Slater - Fitzgerald

At least we would be entertained. Assuming Lavy is gone and men are allowed to be men.
Flyers_01
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2006

Mar 14 @ 9:57 AM ET
He has traded a lot of draft picks. Two first rounders who would be on the Phantoms now and available as recalls went for Pronger. Didn't see a lot of complaining about that when they went to the SCF.

I agree there's a litany of issues. I wouldn't exonerate Holmgren or the players on hand.

But I do feel that the current roster is better than several teams that currently hold playoff spots. I see other teams with coaches getting a lot more out of far less, while the Flyers try to play a system designed for Pronger and Carle while they have Schenn and Coburn.

I fault Holmgren to a degree, despite him going out and being aggressive in the free agent market last summer. You know he's been kicking tires all over the place just by the amount of games he has scouts at.

But Laviolette has known, since September at the latest, that his defense would be bigger and less mobile than before. That's plenty of time to make changes. He either didn't or made bad ones.

As it stands, this team is an undisciplined mess. The bad habits need to be broken and discipline needs to be instilled. I don't think Laviolette is the man to do it. That's what it boils down to for me. And the sooner that process starts, the better, IMO.

- Jsaquella


Not to Mention Luca Sbisa, a first round offensive defenseman who, while not setting the world on fire right now, would be getting regular minutes with the Flyers. Not quite a draft pick but an important piece that was traded. Lupul probably would've been traded for draft picks or a depth defenseman as well.

While Pronger played well during his short tenure here they gave up a Kings ransom in players and picks to get him as a one year rental which forced Holmgren to give him an actual Kings ransom in cash to keep him here after one year.

At the time it was viewed that if the Flyers didn't win a Stanley Cup during Pronger's 1st 2 or 3 years the trade would be considered a failure as the Flyers gave up half a decade of 1st round picks for defenseman who would be entering a severe decline now even if he was healthy.

There were people who thought it was a bad idea at the time but many more were blinded by Pronger's arrival and didn't want to hear that by paying for Pronger on credit now would result in the bill coming due down the road. Well the bill is due.
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Mar 14 @ 9:58 AM ET
You're not agreeing but offering nothing in the way of a counter argument. That's just complaining. Disagreeing involves more than a part of a sentence.
- Jsaquella

you all know how I feel, just in attack mode and I get it
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