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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Rout on the Island, O'Reilly Rumor
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Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Feb 19 @ 1:33 PM ET
Carter never really seemed to be comfortable at the wing though. It would be great if he could be more consistent there but he always seemed more effective up the middle.
- NickTheKid87


No he didn't, and I think he peaked in 08-09. I don't see him breaking the 80 point barrier again, even if he manages to play a full season.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Feb 19 @ 1:34 PM ET
None of them. But that is a completely different situation, and a different conversation. Here's the problem. You're using that statistical analysis for NHL player when they peak. There's over 700 players a Season. And a very wide distance between the top players, and the players on the bottom of the spectrum in terms of ability. Some players never really peak. They are what they are from day 1. So that wide discrepancy of players, skews that number. But narrow that down and only look at the top 20% of players in the League, or even the top 10% of players. Because they're the players that you're going to sign to those long term deals with large Cap hits. I bet you find the numbers are different. And what you really need to know, is how long they remain in that top 10% or so of players, and remain in the area of their peak performance. You also can't account for a number of factors including injury, losing the desire to play, etc.
You don't need any statisitical data to know that top players in the League, remain top players well into their 30's. Some even get better.
So using that statistical data to determine that it's a mistake to sign a player like Giroux to an 8 year deal, doesn't hold much water in my opinion.

- MJL


- Not a mistake to sign him to an 8-year-deal (and it's a foregone conclusion anyway), just that you could lessen the lost value on the back-end of the deal, or have someone else pay for his "declining" years with a 5 or 6 year deal then let him leave via UFA.

- Citing statistics that show that most top players performance decline after age 29 seemed relevant to me

- I don't think there's 10 guys in the league right now that have gotten "better" after age 30. Those are called anomalies. If you want to cite them in your "analysis" as a rational outcome for Giroux's career, that's certainly your prerogative.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 1:35 PM ET
seriously, do you think iginla lasts the season in calgary?
- hammarby31

I think they'd be foolish not to rent him out if they could get a first round pick + in exchange. Same with Kiprusoff if they can get him back in the lineup. That team has no prospects of significance.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 1:37 PM ET
So you're saying he hasn't hit his peak yet but will not repeat last seasons scoring success?
- twotoekenn


No, I'm the one saying he'll get over 100 points in the next few years.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 1:37 PM ET
Probably. It was for a birthday party for 1 of my classmates: Eric S., Michael M., Keith P., or Kevin R. would be my guess.
- Flyskippy


I'm certain that if I took 15 minutes I could name all of those. I'm pretty sure of two off the top of my head
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Feb 19 @ 1:38 PM ET
Probably. It was for a birthday party for 1 of my classmates: Eric S., Michael M., Keith P., or Kevin R. would be my guess.
- Flyskippy



I didn't recognize you. Crying baby only comes out after losses?
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 1:40 PM ET
You know... as hard as I try I can't make out the design on that girls tank top. I can however plainly see that endless tacos are 8.99.
twotoekenn
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: perkasie, PA
Joined: 12.16.2009

Feb 19 @ 1:41 PM ET
No, I'm the one saying he'll get over 100 points in the next few years.
- NickTheKid87


Sorry I got you confused with someone else.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 1:41 PM ET
I didn't recognize you. Crying baby only comes out after losses?
- canadianpenfan


We're doing the Jeff Bridges motif. You can choose Jeff as Starman, Jack Prescott Rooster Cogburn, Charles Howard or Presient Jackson Evans.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 1:42 PM ET
Sorry I got you confused with someone else.
- twotoekenn


No worries.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 19 @ 1:42 PM ET
- Not a mistake to sign him to an 8-year-deal (and it's a foregone conclusion anyway), just that you could lessen the lost value on the back-end of the deal, or have someone else pay for his "declining" years with a 5 or 6 year deal then let him leave via UFA.

- Citing statistics that show that most top players performance decline after age 29 seems relevant to me

- I don't think there's 10 guys in the league right now that have gotten "better" after age 30. Those are called anomalies. If you want to cite them in your "analysis" as a rational outcome for Giroux's career, that's certainly your prerogative.

- bradleyc4



You have the data which just deals with top players in the League and not players as a whole? I'd like to see that. Also what is the criteria they use to determine which players are in that pool and which aren't?

Again, what your missing is that a top players declining years from his absolute peak, can still put him in the tops of the League as a player. And can still make him worthy of his contract in declining years. Especially when dealing with a player of Giroux's age. Which he'll be around 32 at the end of his 8 year deal. Quite different then signing a player at 29 or 30 to an 8 year deal. Which could very likely mean that there is a possibility that the player will not be worth his Cap hit or salary at approximately 38 years of age.

Perfect examples are two recent players on the Flyers. When the Flyers acquired Chris Pronger, he was a player in decline, who was not the player he was in his absolute prime. He was however still a difference maker, and still a top defenseman in the League. Same for Kimmo Timonen. He was declinging from his peak of the first few years he was a Flyers until now. But has still remained a very good defenseman in this League.

And last, you'll notice I said some players even get better. That by it's very nature, would mean a small group of players historically.
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Feb 19 @ 1:43 PM ET
We're doing the Jeff Bridges motif. You can choose Jeff as Starman, Jack Prescott Rooster Cogburn, Charles Howard or Presient Jackson Evans.
- Jsaquella



Oh. That sounds like very little fun. Excited for tomorrow?

STATEMENT RIVALRY GAME
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 1:43 PM ET
Oh. That sounds like very little fun. Excited for tomorrow?

STATEMENT RIVALRY GAME

- canadianpenfan


Easy, Crims, Jr
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 1:44 PM ET
Oh. That sounds like very little fun. Excited for tomorrow?

STATEMENT RIVALRY GAME

- canadianpenfan


MUST WIN statement rivalry game.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 1:45 PM ET
Per Twitter, WIP is reporting that the Phillies are aggressively pursuing Giancarlo Stanton
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Feb 19 @ 1:45 PM ET
MUST WIN statement rivalry game.
- NickTheKid87



I think it will be a good one.
watsonnostaw
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Dude has all the personality of a lump of concrete. Just a complete lizard.
Joined: 06.26.2006

Feb 19 @ 1:45 PM ET
MUST WIN statement rivalry game.
- NickTheKid87

lock synch monkey pick of the week
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Feb 19 @ 1:46 PM ET
Oh. That sounds like very little fun. Excited for tomorrow?

STATEMENT RIVALRY GAME

- canadianpenfan

NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 1:47 PM ET
Per Twitter, WIP is reporting that the Phillies are aggressively pursuing Giancarlo Stanton
- Jsaquella


They'd have to give up Hamels + pretty much. They don't have the prospects.
Lexington Flyer
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NoHockeyTown , KY
Joined: 04.02.2008

Feb 19 @ 1:47 PM ET
Organic chem exam today.

In the zone.

- Giroux_Is_God


STATEMENT EXAM!
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 1:48 PM ET
We're doing the Jeff Bridges motif. You can choose Jeff as Starman, Jack Prescott Rooster Cogburn, Charles Howard or Presient Jackson Evans.
- Jsaquella

Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Feb 19 @ 1:48 PM ET
Oh. That sounds like very little fun. Excited for tomorrow?

STATEMENT RIVALRY GAME

- canadianpenfan

pens really are just an astoundingly unlikeable team
im a huge fan of crosby's game but seriously cant find a guy i like on that roster
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Feb 19 @ 1:50 PM ET
pens really are just an astoundingly unlikeable team
im a huge fan of crosby's game but seriously cant find a guy i like on that roster

- Crimsoninja


Dupuis? Kunitz?
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 1:51 PM ET

- mayorofangrytown


Or that.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Feb 19 @ 1:51 PM ET
Dupuis? Kunitz?
- NickTheKid87

No and No!
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