That's the fun in sport. Sometimes, the unexpected happens. It doesn't happen often, but it does happen. I don't expect it to happen, like you do, but it doesn't mean it's impossible. Just really damn unlikely. Difference is, I know it's luck that I have to rely on to see them win whereas others will blur the lines between relying on luck with their distorted view of reality and actually believe they will pull it off.
- Two_For_Truth

So, if I believe that Lupul will be a productive player for now and the life of his new contract, I'm a damn fool for believing in luck?

But if you believe in luck, it's justifiable?

It just seems a little odd that a guy who has no problem spewing as much vitriol as you about this team is suddenly compelled to follow them over such an irrational belief as "luck".

Can we all agree that a discussion on the merits of the draft is pointless without some qualitative analysis?

What I mean by that is that you all seem to be fighting over quantitative facts (the number of games certain players have played, the percentage of players who become NHLers, etc), which I think paint an incomplete picture.

For example, is Brandon Sutter an NHLer? Yes, by the numbers, he has played enough NHL games in his career to be considered one. But is he a "bust"? That's a more complex question.

He was drafted 11th overall and projects as a typical third liner five years removed from his draft in 2007. I think it's fair to guess an accurate projection on his upside at this point.

If I draft a player with the 11th overall pick that I could get off the scrap heap on July 1st as a journeyman free agent, does it really matter that I found an NHLer? Did I really get value for my pick?
- Leeman4Gilmour

I agree with you I am not the one name calling.. funny how this started in the morning on another thread.. and everyone was tooling the System Tool.. now this discussion with what started was that Kadri should get the same ice time as Kessel has turned to draft picks.. trading Lupul for them.. and everything else..

On a Cup winning team? Don't bet on it.



Sorry if reality seems half empty but the Leafs aren't going anywhere significant any time soon. Hopefully that changes.
- Two_For_Truth

Please explain how Kessel is not a building block on a cup winning team?

Always a pleasure knew it was a typo on his part... but now you are blaming me for his mistakes.. the argument was trading Lupul for draft picks.. how many of those 50% are top line guys???

Because that is what he is suggesting..
- DoctorNHL

no it was my stat, he kept cut and pasting my post, so it didn't look like a quote.

anywho. point is, when all is said and done, it's pretty clear that the average is 50% play 500 games or more in the recent drafts.

now, we're not looking at points here, just games played. I'll grant that, and I certainly don't care enought to look at the points

I make them all the time.. but he kept re-posting it while calling me an a$$ so I couldn't resist
- DoctorNHL

Truth hurts. Wearing the ass like a crown doesnt help either.

Are you for real? I'm starting to wonder if this is some genius trolling, because it's impossible someone can't comprehend anything, like this.
- prock

You are clearly beyond me walk on your radiance will enlighten us all.. oh grand master..

I agree with you I am not the one name calling.. funny how this started in the morning on another thread.. and everyone was tooling the System Tool.. now this discussion with what started was that Kadri should get the same ice time as Kessel has turned to draft picks.. trading Lupul for them.. and everything else..
- DoctorNHL

You got educated, you cried about it, now you're crying about it some more.

On a Cup winning team? Don't bet on it.



Sorry if reality seems half empty but the Leafs aren't going anywhere significant any time soon. Hopefully that changes.
- Two_For_Truth

Year four of a ten year rebuild?
I'd say Rielly/Gardiner are great cornerstones to have going forward though. Goaltending and our C problem still needs to be fixed, but we have time.

You are clearly beyond me walk on your radiance will enlighten us all.. oh grand master..
- DoctorNHL

What the (frank)?

Are you okay dude? Seriously, is everything all right?

Year four of a ten year rebuild?
I'd say Rielly/Gardiner are great cornerstones to have going forward though. Goaltending and our C problem still needs to be fixed, but we have time.
- Unholy_Forward

All we have is time.

no it was my stat, he kept cut and pasting my post, so it didn't look like a quote.

anywho. point is, when all is said and done, it's pretty clear that the average is 50% play 500 games or more.

now, we're not looking at points here, just games played. I'll grant that, and I certainly don't care enought to look at the points
- Big_Lightnin

Dude sorry you took offense i was was dealing with an arrogant system tool.. have no issues with you or your numbers.. I thought he was posting it.. my bad.. I forgot he only learned to cut & paste.. no real stats on his part only conjecture I should've known better.. I missed your post.. sorry my apologies..

So, if I believe that Lupul will be a productive player for now and the life of his new contract, I'm a damn fool for believing in luck?
- Leeman4Gilmour

If you confuse luck and expectations or if you think it;s going to take a hint of luck rather than a gargantuan amount of luck, yeah, you might be.

But if you believe in luck, it's justifiable?

It just seems a little odd that a guy who has no problem spewing as much vitriol as you about this team is suddenly compelled to follow them over such an irrational belief as "luck".

Luck and loyalty. Have to stick with the team. Doesn't mean I have to like it when they do stupid crap though and it doesn't mean that just because they exist that they are living up to their end of the bargain.

All we have is time.
- Pen15

You.

quick count I get 252 1st rounders selceted 90-99.

just happened to notice that 14 of 28 selected in 98 played over 500 career games , 12 of 26 in 97, 11 of 26 in 96...

it goes on like that
- Big_Lightnin

sounds about right. given that they pretty steadily added teams through the 90s, I would expect the average to be about 25. halfway between 20 and 30. Over ten years, 250ish picks.

And, if the earlier numbers were accurate, I believe it said 80 or so played 500 games. A little over 30% of them. 160 of them played 200 games, so 65%ish.

And, if there were 2600 total picks, that means 2350 were post-first round. they said 494 played 200, and 160 were first rounders, leaving 334 post-first round. Approximately 15% of those taken after the first round. A little lower. maybe 13 or 14%.

What the (frank)?

Are you okay dude? Seriously, is everything all right?
- systemtool

Great question because I have been off and on all day.. and you have always been here... arguing the same points with conjecture.. and speculation.. with no stats.. nothing but your opinion.. which of course is worth so much to me..

Dude sorry you took offense i was was dealing with an arrogant system tool.. have no issues with you or your numbers.. I thought he was posting it.. my bad.. I forgot he only learned to cut & paste.. no real stats on his part only conjecture I should've known better.. I missed your post.. sorry my apologies..
- DoctorNHL

So, in short, you're sorry you acted like an ass without knowing all the facts and are now back tracking after accepting defeat.

Clap, clap, clap.

The cut and paste paid off, id say. 3%

Year four of a ten year rebuild?
I'd say Rielly/Gardiner are great cornerstones to have going forward though. Goaltending and our C problem still needs to be fixed, but we have time.
- Unholy_Forward

Year forty-five of an infinite year rebuild.

Rielly and Gardiner are offensive defenders. But Drew Doughty, they are not.

Great question because I have been off and on all day.. and you have always been here... arguing the same points with conjecture.. and speculation.. with no stats.. nothing but your opinion.. which of course is worth so much to me..
- DoctorNHL

No stats..sigh.

50% from 2000 draft already have 500 games, and a few more have over 400 and are still playing.

same goes for everything since.

average will be easily 50% play over 500 games.

Hell 2008 draft already has 13 players with 2 full seasons played. Normal developement after draft would be 1 yr jr, 1 AHL, then start NHL career, and play ever game, to get 2 full seasons since 2008.

You got educated, you cried about it, now you're crying about it some more.
- systemtool

Your intellect has numbed me beyond belief.. this is correct..

Please explain how Kessel is not a building block on a cup winning team?
- Cooshie

Same reason Rick Vaive wasn't.

If you confuse luck and expectations or if you think it;s going to take a hint of luck rather than a gargantuan amount of luck, yeah, you might be.



Luck and loyalty. Have to stick with the team. Doesn't mean I have to like it when they do stupid crap though and it doesn't mean that just because they exist that they are living up to their end of the bargain.
- Two_For_Truth

And what bargain would that be?

What does the Leafs organization owe you, me, or any other fan?

The reason the leafs have been mediocre for decades is because fans like you, me, and most others on here cling to hope, and continue to watch, buy, and support their mediocrity.

If you really want to implement change, you need to incent them to do better...you need to stop watching, cheering, and supporting.

I strongly suggest you lead the charge in this, given your outspoken distain for the state of this franchise.

No stats..sigh.

50% from 2000 draft already have 50 games, and a few more have over 400 and are still playing.

same goes for everything since.

average will be easily 50% play over 500 games.

Hell 2008 draft already has 13 players with 2 full seasons played. Normal developement after draft would be 1 yr jr, 1 AHL, then start NHL career, and play ever game, to get 2 full seasons since 2008.
- systemtool

Those were Lightnings stats.. and you were to dumb to see his typo on the first line..

If you confuse luck and expectations or if you think it;s going to take a hint of luck rather than a gargantuan amount of luck, yeah, you might be.



Luck and loyalty. Have to stick with the team. Doesn't mean I have to like it when they do stupid crap though and it doesn't mean that just because they exist that they are living up to their end of the bargain.
- Two_For_Truth

Why the loyalty?

Was there ever a time in your life when the Leafs met your high expectations for success?

Was there ever a time when the Leafs ran their organization by your playbook?

Year four of a ten year rebuild?
I'd say Rielly/Gardiner are great cornerstones to have going forward though. Goaltending and our C problem still needs to be fixed, but we have time.
- Unholy_Forward

According to him, Kessel, Reilly, Gardiner are not pieces that could be considered building blocks for a championship team.
I clearly said that they need to add (i.e. Getzlaf, goalie, etc)...but that there are some nice pieces that can be added too.

Lot's of so called Leaf fan / self-haters that will always love to hate the Leafs and wouldn't mater who were on this team - they would still show their hate-on.

To say that Kessel can't be considered a building block for a contender is just ignorance.

Your intellect has numbed me beyond belief.. this is correct..
- DoctorNHL

Put the white flag down, you look silly. Especially with that crown on.