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Forums :: Blog World :: Adam French: Why Aleksandr Barkov Will Challenge for First Overall
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Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 12 @ 2:52 PM ET
They do, 3 balls and 2 balls. The article has mistakenly combined the 2 which is false.
- burn

The way they did it makes sense, as they do have that chance of winning the 1st overall... but they could have explained it better.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 12 @ 2:54 PM ET
pretty much the same as a lottery ticket then?

if you buy 1 ticket at 1 in 27 million and you buy a second ticket it's still 1 in 27 million not 2 in 27 million?

- MindFr3eak

each ticket has a 1 in 27 million chance of being a winner. You hold two tickets, so you have a 2 in 27 million chance of winning.(assuming you picked two different sets of numbers)
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Oct 12 @ 3:13 PM ET
The way they did it makes sense, as they do have that chance of winning the 1st overall... but they could have explained it better.
- Feeling Glucky?




No they haave to be split. They don't have 5 balls. It's 3 and 2. They have 2 picks. Not one.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 13 @ 3:14 AM ET
No they haave to be split. They don't have 5 balls. It's 3 and 2. They have 2 picks. Not one.
- burn

3+2=?
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Oct 13 @ 7:47 AM ET
3+2=?
- Feeling Glucky?



That's not how it works.

3+2=5... but they have a 3 chance and a 2 chance. they are separate picks. Combining to 5 makes it one pick. The fact that only 29 teams are listed is proof that is it incorrect. It should read CLB 3, CLB (From LA) 2. It's not a combined pick, it's 2 separate picks.

It's adding apples and oranges.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 14 @ 11:35 AM ET
That's not how it works.

3+2=5... but they have a 3 chance and a 2 chance. they are separate picks. Combining to 5 makes it one pick. The fact that only 29 teams are listed is proof that is it incorrect. It should read CLB 3, CLB (From LA) 2. It's not a combined pick, it's 2 separate picks.

It's adding apples and oranges.

- burn

I buy a lottery ticket that has (for simplicity's sake) a 1% chance of winning, and another that also has a 1% chance of winning. I now have a 2% chance of winning.

Each pick for Columbus has its own chance of winning 1st overall, but Columbus has the combined chances.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Oct 14 @ 11:42 AM ET
I buy a lottery ticket that has (for simplicity's sake) a 1% chance of winning, and another that also has a 1% chance of winning. I now have a 2% chance of winning.

Each pick for Columbus has its own chance of winning 1st overall, but Columbus has the combined chances.

- Feeling Glucky?




False.

Your comparison isn't the same. Your one ticket @1% + another at the same % equates to doubling your chanes. That's not how this works. They have 2 chances at different % for the same prize. Not the same as your example.


Mathematically calling it 5 isn't accurate. Why is there only 29 teams? Because they have accounted for it inaccurately.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 14 @ 2:07 PM ET
False.

Your comparison isn't the same. Your one ticket @1% + another at the same % equates to doubling your chanes. That's not how this works. They have 2 chances at different % for the same prize. Not the same as your example.


Mathematically calling it 5 isn't accurate. Why is there only 29 teams? Because they have accounted for it inaccurately.

- burn

there are only 29 teams, because the Kings traded their pick to Columbus. So the balls associated with that pick belong to Columbus. Giving them 5.

Lets expand on my analogy to make it clearer. I've bought the 2 lottery tickets.... I have a 2% chance of winning. My friend has 3 lottery tickets, he has a 3% chance of winning.

We decide to go in it together, and pool our tickets. The tickets I bought still count for 2%, the tickets he bought account for 3%. Together, we have a 5% chance of winning the lottery.

See? The weighting doesn't affect the logic. Columbus has 5 balls in the lottery, doesn't matter that 2 are from the LA pick and 3 are from their own.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Oct 14 @ 2:15 PM ET
there are only 29 teams, because the Kings traded their pick to Columbus. So the balls associated with that pick belong to Columbus. Giving them 5.

Lets expand on my analogy to make it clearer. I've bought the 2 lottery tickets.... I have a 2% chance of winning. My friend has 3 lottery tickets, he has a 3% chance of winning.

We decide to go in it together, and pool our tickets. The tickets I bought still count for 2%, the tickets he bought account for 3%. Together, we have a 5% chance of winning the lottery.

See? The weighting doesn't affect the logic. Columbus has 5 balls in the lottery, doesn't matter that 2 are from the LA pick and 3 are from their own.

- Feeling Glucky?



Not how it works. The use of a regular lotto isn't an equal comparison. The Lotto doesn't award a prize to every entry.

The CLB pick has a 3 ball chance. that's one pick.... the LA pick, a separate pick has 2 ball chance. you cannot combine the two as they are 2 distinctly different entities. It it mathematically false to do that.


The Columbus has 2 separate chances to win...... 3 and 2. Not 5.

If it were 5 then they'd only have one pick, but they have 2 separate picks.

Saying they have a 5 chance, what happens when they draw for the 2nd pick?? They already used their 5 balls.

Mathematically false.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 14 @ 2:20 PM ET
Not how it works. The use of a regular lotto isn't an equal comparison. The Lotto doesn't award a prize to every entry.

The CLB pick has a 3 ball chance. that's one pick.... the LA pick, a separate pick has 2 ball chance. you cannot combine the two as they are 2 distinctly different entities. It it mathematically false to do that.


The Columbus has 2 separate chances to win...... 3 and 2. Not 5.

If it were 5 then they'd only have one pick, but they have 2 separate picks.

Saying they have a 5 chance, what happens when they draw for the 2nd pick?? They already used their 5 balls.

Mathematically false.

- burn

until their first pick comes up, they've got 5 balls. After that pick, depending on which set of balls was used for it(clb or clb from la) they've got 2 or 3 left.

Burn, this really isn't hard. Come on.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Oct 14 @ 2:24 PM ET
until their first pick comes up, they've got 5 balls. After that pick, depending on which set of balls was used for it(clb or clb from la) they've got 2 or 3 left.

Burn, this really isn't hard. Come on.

- Feeling Glucky?



Not how it works. You cannot claim 5 ball chance and then say, look I still got 2 left.

It's 2 separate picks, 2 separate %. Cannot be combined.

You're right it's not hard.
laughs2907
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Wuhan, China
Joined: 07.18.2006

Oct 14 @ 2:24 PM ET
Absolute rubbish... Mackinnon will go #1.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 14 @ 2:35 PM ET
Not how it works. You cannot claim 5 ball chance and then say, look I still got 2 left.

It's 2 separate picks, 2 separate %. Cannot be combined.

You're right it's not hard.

- burn


yes you can, and that's exactly what the case is.


Tell me, what's Columbus's chance of winning the 1st overall?

Or, to makes it easier, what happens if the balls belonging to LA get picked?
What happens if the balls belonging to Columbus get picked?

In either case, they get the slotted into the draft.

Both sets of balls are in for the same prize. Columbus owns both sets. Therefore, they have 5 balls in for that pick.

After they win a pick, they lose the set of balls that they won the pick with. So, say they win the 1st overall with LA's set of balls, they still have 3 balls left in the lottery for the 2nd overall(and if they don't win there, the next pick and so on).
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Oct 14 @ 2:41 PM ET
yes you can, and that's exactly what the case is.


Tell me, what's Columbus's chance of winning the 1st overall?

Or, to makes it easier, what happens if the balls belonging to LA get picked?
What happens if the balls belonging to Columbus get picked?

In either case, they get the slotted into the draft.

Both sets of balls are in for the same prize. Columbus owns both sets. Therefore, they have 5 balls in for that pick.

After they win a pick, they lose the set of balls that they won the pick with. So, say they win the 1st overall with LA's set of balls, they still have 3 balls left in the lottery for the 2nd overall(and if they don't win there, the next pick and so on).

- Feeling Glucky?



Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 14 @ 2:44 PM ET

- burn



burn, you've taken a dark turn towards UGism. It's ok to be wrong, so long as you use it as a learning opportunity. That's what this is.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Oct 14 @ 2:46 PM ET


burn, you've taken a dark turn towards UGism. It's ok to be wrong, so long as you use it as a learning opportunity. That's what this is.

- Feeling Glucky?



Lean what?? Alternate universe mathematics?? I'll stay in this universe thanks.

What'd you learn from being wrong about scabs?
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 14 @ 2:56 PM ET
Lean what?? Alternate universe mathematics?? I'll stay in this universe thanks.

What'd you learn from being wrong about scabs?

- burn

You really should switch over to the universe where 3+2=5. It's a pretty easy universe to figure out.

As for the scab discussion, it was your lesson to learn, not mine.

Seriously man, I think you're getting burned out. You're on the wrong side of too many things lately.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Oct 14 @ 3:09 PM ET
You really should switch over to the universe where 3+2=5. It's a pretty easy universe to figure out.

As for the scab discussion, it was your lesson to learn, not mine.

Seriously man, I think you're getting burned out. You're on the wrong side of too many things lately.

- Feeling Glucky?



the wrong side = side of facts and stats? thats the side i wish to live on.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 14 @ 3:17 PM ET
the wrong side = side of facts and stats? thats the side i wish to live on.
- burn

Then come over to my side. We have cookies.
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