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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Freiheit: Can Vanek hit 40 goals?
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jochfr
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Nashville , TN
Joined: 07.11.2009

Aug 21 @ 4:19 PM ET
boobies
- cabin


Looks like some personal attack posts were deleted again... I wish you jerks would be nicer to each other!!!
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Aug 21 @ 4:22 PM ET
Just another blog area where people can post... whats your point?
- hubie


The article states where Thomas Vanek is the top shooter in the NHL % wise. It was an ESPN insider article so I had to find an area where it was posted so you could read it.
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Aug 21 @ 4:29 PM ET
Looks like some personal attack posts were deleted again... I wish you jerks would be nicer to each other!!!
- jochfr

Some of these guys will never learn
seedy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: you don't need an ignore button to ignore someone., CA
Joined: 02.22.2007

Aug 21 @ 5:09 PM ET
The article states where Thomas Vanek is the top shooter in the NHL % wise. It was an ESPN insider article so I had to find an area where it was posted so you could read it.
- ImThatGuy


This is the text of the article. Which, for some reason, ESPN expects you to pay for. It never calls him a "pure goal scorer" however, I think what we're all debating here is weather or not Vanek is a great player, up there in the top 10 or so, and I think the answer is yes. I think most teams would prefer to have him in their line up than not. I'm a fan. Bought his sweater last year actually....

If you had to pick one of the NHL's best snipers to take one shot on net and score, whom would you pick? Steven Stamkos? Ilya Kovalchuk? Alex Ovechkin? A healthy Sidney Crosby?

All good choices, but the guy you want is Buffalo Sabres left wing Thomas Vanek, the NHL's best shooter.


Scoring goals is not new to the Austrian native. In addition to 40-plus goal seasons in 2006-07 and 2008-09, he has accumulated more than 200 goals during his career, never tallying fewer than 25 in any season since his debut in 2005-06....

But what makes Vanek the league's best shooter is his continued talent for putting shots into the net.


Courtesy Neil Greenberg.
Thomas Vanek has been tops in true talent shooting percentage in the NHL.
As we know from watching hockey games, a player might not perform at his talent level every game. Fans and coaches alike wish that what they were observing was solely talent-driven, but the game doesn't work that way. If we want to know a player's true talent level, we have to estimate it from his observed performance.

One way to do this is with regression to the mean.

Suppose a winger scores a goal on two shots (50 percent shooting percentage) during a game and we want to estimate his true talent shooting percentage. Regression to the mean helps us find out how much, on average, our observed sample will reflect the shooter's true talent, and how much it will reflect random chance or luck. The longer a player performs at a certain level, the likelier it becomes that level is his true talent level. So to find the league's best shooter, we'll want to look at a large sample size of shots.

Among the game's active players who have taken more than 1,000 shots on goal, Vanek leads the league with a "true talent" shooting percentage of 15.1 percent.

What about the rest of the contenders?

NHL's Best Shooters
The league's top snipers based on true talent shooting percentage since 2005-06 (minimum 1,000 shots).

Player Goals Shots True Talent Sh%
Thomas Vanek 211 1346 15.2%
Teemu Selanne 188 1214 15.0%
Sidney Crosby 215 1398 15.0%
Dany Heatley 247 1616 14.9%
Mike Knuble 168 1094 14.9%
Danny Briere 161 1071 14.6%
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Aug 21 @ 5:27 PM ET


NHL's Best Shooters
The league's top snipers based on true talent shooting percentage since 2005-06 (minimum 1,000 shots).

Player Goals Shots True Talent Sh%
Thomas Vanek 211 1346 15.2%
Teemu Selanne 188 1214 15.0%
Sidney Crosby 215 1398 15.0%
Dany Heatley 247 1616 14.9%
Mike Knuble 168 1094 14.9%
Danny Briere 161 1071 14.6%

- seedy


As a pretty big Vanek fan from day 1 .I see Vanek as more of a player needing to score a goal via another players shot . Ex: tip-ins , rebounds. Most of his goals are a product of that . He is not known for getting the puck , skating say more than 5 feet and shooting it past the goalie.
MrSquirrel
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 07.05.2012

Aug 21 @ 5:47 PM ET
Vanek is NO where near the icetime of other scoring wingers like Iginla, Nash, Stampkos etc...The excuse Lindy gives is "Vanek doesn't play the PK so that is why he gets less". That is a crock of bull, Iginal, Nash, Stampkos and many other scoring wingers all play the same amount of PK time or none at all. Vanek can score 40 goals if he was given "normal" star scoring winger pp time not 76th or 115 in the league rank for forwards for pp icetime. Vanek was well over 100 for even strength forwards icetime and way over 100 for pp icetime for forwards. The problem in Buffalo is the coach.

One year Vanek led the entire NHL in pp goals then the following season Lindy's Son Goose had more pp time in 17 games.

Teams that win cups play the best players the most minutes, note to fans: Watch LA kings recap and see how much pp time the best players were getting. Good coaches can use the best players for full pps when you are down a goal.

Let me repeat that again...Vanek plays less minutes then all the other scoring star wingers in the NHL and he doesn't play the PK and neither do Inginla, Stampkos, Nash etc. How does the coaches for the other teams get them 20-21 minutes per game total icetime while Vanek is at 16:39 seconds for his time in Buffalo? Vanek's playoff icetime 14 minutes and 46 seconds LOL

Vanek number 160 in the NHL for forwards even strength icetime.

vanek number 76 in pp icetime for forwards(76 fowards in the NHL get more pp time than vanek? seriously, WTF)

Vanek number 143 in overall icetime for forwards
RayHatesDomi
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Tank You Very Much
Joined: 06.30.2009

Aug 21 @ 6:28 PM ET
As a pretty big Vanek fan from day 1 .I see Vanek as more of a player needing to score a goal via another players shot . Ex: tip-ins , rebounds. Most of his goals are a product of that . He is not known for getting the puck , skating say more than 5 feet and shooting it past the goalie.
- cabin


I blame Ruff more than Vanek. Vanek plays Ruff's game. Ruff doesn't let Vanek play his own game.
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Aug 21 @ 7:19 PM ET
I blame Ruff more than Vanek. Vanek plays Ruff's game. Ruff doesn't let Vanek play his own game.
- RayHatesDomi


I never blamed Van. just seems to be that way. you very well could be right about being Ruffs fault . Van isn't gettin any younger . Past 5-10 seasons . Who have we had to take a beating in front of the net ? Vanek has been the more consistent player to do it .
RayHatesDomi
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Tank You Very Much
Joined: 06.30.2009

Aug 21 @ 7:33 PM ET
I never blamed Van. just seems to be that way. you very well could be right about being Ruffs fault . Van isn't gettin any younger . Past 5-10 seasons . Who have we had to take a beating in front of the net ? Vanek has been the more consistent player to do it .
- cabin


I'm not arguing with you. I agree with what you're saying. I just think Ruff limits Vanek's talent. I think Vanek could be a deadly sniper if Ruff didn't just always park him in front of the net. Sure, he's good at tip ins. I just think a lot of his talent has been riegned in playing for this coach
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Aug 21 @ 8:02 PM ET
I'm not arguing with you. I agree with what you're saying. I just think Ruff limits Vanek's talent. I think Vanek could be a deadly sniper if Ruff didn't just always park him in front of the net. Sure, he's good at tip ins. I just think a lot of his talent has been riegned in playing for this coach
- RayHatesDomi



Agreed .. I wasn't arguing .
JVince11
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Alright Sigfreid, Lets Go Roy... Eye of the freaking Tiger!!!, AK
Joined: 07.13.2011

Aug 21 @ 8:03 PM ET
Vanek, ennis, and sekera

For

Kane, Hjalmarsson, and hayes.
Sabretooter
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 07.21.2011

Aug 22 @ 9:16 PM ET
Vanek is NO where near the icetime of other scoring wingers like Iginla, Nash, Stampkos etc...The excuse Lindy gives is "Vanek doesn't play the PK so that is why he gets less". That is a crock of bull, Iginal, Nash, Stampkos and many other scoring wingers all play the same amount of PK time or none at all. Vanek can score 40 goals if he was given "normal" star scoring winger pp time not 76th or 115 in the league rank for forwards for pp icetime. Vanek was well over 100 for even strength forwards icetime and way over 100 for pp icetime for forwards. The problem in Buffalo is the coach.

One year Vanek led the entire NHL in pp goals then the following season Lindy's Son Goose had more pp time in 17 games.

Teams that win cups play the best players the most minutes, note to fans: Watch LA kings recap and see how much pp time the best players were getting. Good coaches can use the best players for full pps when you are down a goal.

Let me repeat that again...Vanek plays less minutes then all the other scoring star wingers in the NHL and he doesn't play the PK and neither do Inginla, Stampkos, Nash etc. How does the coaches for the other teams get them 20-21 minutes per game total icetime while Vanek is at 16:39 seconds for his time in Buffalo? Vanek's playoff icetime 14 minutes and 46 seconds LOL

Vanek number 160 in the NHL for forwards even strength icetime.

vanek number 76 in pp icetime for forwards(76 fowards in the NHL get more pp time than vanek? seriously, WTF)

Vanek number 143 in overall icetime for forwards

- MrSquirrel

Wow! Finally someone who can make an argument and back it up with facts. Very good job, and nice post... but I disagree with some of it.

I am as big a Vanek fan as anyone, so I want to support you in that he should have better stats and average more ice time. But the fact is that he has had persistent injuries that he has battled through while playing. HE wants to play hurt, and does, but is not as effective while doing so. Thus we see his on ice averages drop. I believe that this, coupled with the fact that Vanek isn't a defensive player, is why Vanek's on ice %s aren't higher.

It's not Ruff's fault in any way. Ruff always puts Vanek out there in all scoring situations, even when he is playing poorly and injured. And, from my experience, he takes short shifts and doesn't seem to want to stay out there long. Maybe I am wrong and he is being told to keep the shift short, but from watching him for so long he never tries to stretch out a shift on the PP.
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