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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Friday Quick Hits
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isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Aug 10 @ 8:49 PM ET
I'd very much prefer seeing if any of the young defensemen can handle some big responsibilities to pursuing some bandaid player. The caliber defenseman we're seeking just isn't available right now.
- BulliesPhan87

unless the flyers are willing to part with an asset like schenn or couts...
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Aug 10 @ 9:05 PM ET
unless the flyers are willing to part with an asset like schenn or couts...
- isaiah520

No way that happens. Theyll wait a year and try to land Weber again before offering either of them up for anyone else.
Daman
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 10 @ 10:10 PM ET
No way that happens. Theyll wait a year and try to land Weber again before offering either of them up for anyone else.
- hereticpride


This sounds like getting dumped by a girl (or for some of you, a boy), thinking they'll be back. They can't break up with me.

The heartbreak happened. Weber is lost. Not for one year. Forever.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Aug 10 @ 10:14 PM ET
No way that happens. Theyll wait a year and try to land Weber again before offering either of them up for anyone else.
- hereticpride

unfortunately, that's the only way it happens before 2014...otherwise, we're talking about a luke schenn level guy.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Aug 10 @ 10:25 PM ET
Love Coots, but Hamilton is going to be a beast one day. if the draft as strong as people say it is hold all picks and maybe recoup more. The team is young. Patience.
phantasm
Joined: 04.17.2011

Aug 10 @ 10:35 PM ET
I wouldn't say big minutes. Some games they played more then others, but both showed potential to be NHL defenseman. How far they can progress, time will tell. But you judge a player over the long haul, and not over the short term. Which is why using stats such as goals per 60 minutes for a player like Bourdon as a sign in part of top 4 potential is foolish. He only played 46 games. Way too small of a sample size.
- MJL


46 NHL games, while not ideal, is a fairly decent sample size to evaluate a prospect/rookie like MAB. Sometimes big decisions must be made about players in those early stages of their development. The staff has to be continuously analyzing their players, especially the rookie types, to know what they've got at any given time. Your idea of "you judge a player over the long haul and not the short term" ignores this critical fact, and thus, it is the foolish one.

The G/60 stat I used is what it is. MAB scored just as many goals (4) as Timonen, Coburn and Carle, despite playing about 1/2 their minutes and a mere fraction of their powerplay time. Two of them were GWGs. While it's not something I would point to as a primary reason for my view on the player, it is fact that supports my view. I don't just write it off because it was "only" over 46 games. That's foolish. That was but one of many different criteria I used in forming my opinion on MAB, as can be seen in my previous post about him, where I cited other stats and numerous observations I've made of the specific skills and abilities the player has. In my book, having seen what he did in those 46 games firsthand, Bourdon projects as a solid second pairing guy, a position I expect him to be in when he's say, 250-300 games into his NHL career. I hope it's with the Flyers.

If he gets in trouble with his health, well, all bets are off.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Aug 10 @ 11:01 PM ET
This sounds like getting dumped by a girl (or for some of you, a boy), thinking they'll be back. They can't break up with me.

The heartbreak happened. Weber is lost. Not for one year. Forever.

- Daman

Nashville would still seriously consider a deal centered around B Schenn. Oilers aside the Flyers can spare more young offensive talent than anyone.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Aug 10 @ 11:06 PM ET
Just trying to think outside the box. Any value for Harnell or is he basically pegged as a biproduct of Gs great play?
Don'tForgetTocchet
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ground Zero Brooklyn
Joined: 02.08.2007

Aug 10 @ 11:08 PM ET
Just trying to think outside the box. Any value for Harnell or is he basically pegged as a biproduct of Gs great play?
- jstross






oh boy.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Aug 10 @ 11:08 PM ET
Just trying to think outside the box. Any value for Harnell or is he basically pegged as a biproduct of Gs great play?
- jstross

His value is on our top line. We trade him we're screwed.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Aug 10 @ 11:18 PM ET
His value is on our top line. We trade him we're screwed.
- hereticpride

Stop. No need to be dramatic. Everyone is on the table for the right price. Just asking what other teams would value Harnell at. For example, if he's so important then we should be able to get Ryan and a 1st rd pick right? I doubt it.
Don'tForgetTocchet
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ground Zero Brooklyn
Joined: 02.08.2007

Aug 10 @ 11:21 PM ET
Stop. No need to be dramatic. Everyone is on the table for the right price. Just asking what other teams would value Harnell at. For example, if he's so important then we should be able to get Ryan and a 1st rd pick right? I doubt it.
- jstross



it takes many DIFFERENT pieces to make a good team. hartnell stays or you spend years looking for another one.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Aug 10 @ 11:26 PM ET
Stop. No need to be dramatic. Everyone is on the table for the right price. Just asking what other teams would value Harnell at. For example, if he's so important then we should be able to get Ryan and a 1st rd pick right? I doubt it.
- jstross

Not being dramatic. Who is our top line winger if he leaves? And what does it get us? Maybe if we had got Parise...
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Aug 10 @ 11:43 PM ET
Stop. No need to be dramatic. Everyone is on the table for the right price. Just asking what other teams would value Harnell at. For example, if he's so important then we should be able to get Ryan and a 1st rd pick right? I doubt it.
- jstross


Hartnell is a player who is more valuable to the Flyers by staying put than what he'd get in a trade.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Aug 11 @ 12:04 AM ET
46 NHL games, while not ideal, is a fairly decent sample size to evaluate a prospect/rookie like MAB. Sometimes big decisions must be made about players in those early stages of their development. The staff has to be continuously analyzing their players, especially the rookie types, to know what they've got at any given time. Your idea of "you judge a player over the long haul and not the short term" ignores this critical fact, and thus, it is the foolish one.

The G/60 stat I used is what it is. MAB scored just as many goals (4) as Timonen, Coburn and Carle, despite playing about 1/2 their minutes and a mere fraction of their powerplay time. Two of them were GWGs. While it's not something I would point to as a primary reason for my view on the player, it is fact that supports my view. I don't just write it off because it was "only" over 46 games. That's foolish. That was but one of many different criteria I used in forming my opinion on MAB, as can be seen in my previous post about him, where I cited other stats and numerous observations I've made of the specific skills and abilities the player has. In my book, having seen what he did in those 46 games firsthand, Bourdon projects as a solid second pairing guy, a position I expect him to be in when he's say, 250-300 games into his NHL career. I hope it's with the Flyers.

If he gets in trouble with his health, well, all bets are off.

- phantasm


Bourdon certainly looked better in his 45 NHL games than he did for most of his time in the AHL. Could he be a future top 4? Not sold, but he should manage to be at least a solid 6th defenseman in the NHL.

His advanced stats are not bad, but like Bruno Gervais, he played against weaker competition. In fact, according to www.behindthenet.com the only Flyers defensemen that played 25 or more games against worse competition were Meszaros, Lilja and Gustafsson.

I'm not a huge stat head, I only use them to compare players or confirm what I see happening, and Bourdon had a solid, if inconsistent rookie year in the NHL. He's got a good shot, good strength and he's willing to work hard.

The concussion history is worrisome. But I hope Bourdon gets a fair shot here in Philly.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Aug 11 @ 12:09 AM ET
Hartnell is a player who is more valuable to the Flyers by staying put than what he'd get in a trade.
- Jsaquella

Thank You. That's basically what I was asking. I'd trade hartnell before Schenn and couts, but was curious about there value around the league.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Aug 11 @ 12:16 AM ET
Thank You. That's basically what I was asking. I'd trade hartnell before Schenn and couts, but was curious about there value around the league.
- jstross


Hartnell's kind of a double edged sword. There was a time I didn;t like Hartnell, but I've come to appreciate him. Hell, he's grown into one of my favorite players on the team.

The guy might have numbers from last year that were inflated by Giroux's breakout. But, at the same time, since he's been here he's been a key cog on three different lines that had a ton of success.

The first was when he was playing with Carter and Lupul, and managed 30 goals while Carter scored 46. Then in 2009-10, he joined Danny Briere and Ville Leino in a line that was dynamite in the playoffs, and for a big chunk of the next season.

That might not carry as much weight in a trade discussion as his career averages in goals and points. But the overall package-player, person and teammate is likely more valuable to the Flyers than the likely return.

I'd prefer trading just about anybody before Schenn, but I wouldn't be moving either Hartnell or Schenn unless the return was a guy like Yandle
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Aug 11 @ 12:22 AM ET
Hartnell's kind of a double edged sword. There was a time I didn;t like Hartnell, but I've come to appreciate him. Hell, he's grown into one of my favorite players on the team.

The guy might have numbers from last year that were inflated by Giroux's breakout. But, at the same time, since he's been here he's been a key cog on three different lines that had a ton of success.
I like Hartnell, but one has to evaluate everyone in possibly making deals.

The first was when he was playing with Carter and Lupul, and managed 30 goals while Carter scored 46. Then in 2009-10, he joined Danny Briere and Ville Leino in a line that was dynamite in the playoffs, and for a big chunk of the next season.

That might not carry as much weight in a trade discussion as his career averages in goals and points. But the overall package-player, person and teammate is likely more valuable to the Flyers than the likely return.

I'd prefer trading just about anybody before Schenn, but I wouldn't be moving either Hartnell or Schenn unless the return was a guy like Yandle

- Jsaquella

2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Aug 11 @ 1:41 AM ET
His value is on our top line. We trade him we're screwed.
- hereticpride

oh come on without giroux hartnell would just be a mop
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 11 @ 7:34 AM ET
46 NHL games, while not ideal, is a fairly decent sample size to evaluate a prospect/rookie like MAB. Sometimes big decisions must be made about players in those early stages of their development. The staff has to be continuously analyzing their players, especially the rookie types, to know what they've got at any given time. Your idea of "you judge a player over the long haul and not the short term" ignores this critical fact, and thus, it is the foolish one.

The G/60 stat I used is what it is. MAB scored just as many goals (4) as Timonen, Coburn and Carle, despite playing about 1/2 their minutes and a mere fraction of their powerplay time. Two of them were GWGs. While it's not something I would point to as a primary reason for my view on the player, it is fact that supports my view. I don't just write it off because it was "only" over 46 games. That's foolish. That was but one of many different criteria I used in forming my opinion on MAB, as can be seen in my previous post about him, where I cited other stats and numerous observations I've made of the specific skills and abilities the player has. In my book, having seen what he did in those 46 games firsthand, Bourdon projects as a solid second pairing guy, a position I expect him to be in when he's say, 250-300 games into his NHL career. I hope it's with the Flyers.

If he gets in trouble with his health, well, all bets are off.

- phantasm


The stat really means nothing. It's 46 games, and a drop in the bucket. And way too small of a sample size. Bourdon projects as 3rd pair defenseman in this League. And there are question marks even as far as that is concerned. Although he did make progress and showed that he can play in this League. That being said, out of Gustafsson, Manning, and Bourdon. I like Bourdon the best. But I think saying he has top 4 potential is a stretch.

And you completely missed the boat as far as judging a player over the long haul. Looking at a player and what his career potential may be, is a completely different thing then a Coach or a GM looking at how a player is playing in the moment, and the now.
Look over the course of history how many player came on the scene and played really well at first, only to fizzle out and not pan out in the long run. And not meet the hype. That's why looking at goal per 60 in a 46 game sample, to assess career potential, is pretty foolish. Now if Bourdon continues to score goals and that rate over a Season or two, then it would be a good metric to use, as far as a sign of his career potential in the NHL. Using it to say that Bourdon played well in the 46 games, would be accurate. As you can see, it completly different looking at a players current level of play in the short term, versus looking at career potential. Career potential is best judge over the long haul.
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Aug 11 @ 8:23 AM ET
So...you actually at one time in your life possessed Ricky Martin tickets? I was just starting to warm up to you too. This is very disappointing.
- canadianpenfan

u assume waaaay too much
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Aug 11 @ 8:25 AM ET
Dale the Wombat ‏@wombathockey

(From a source), Peter Laviolette: "I'm not expecting any hockey until at least December at this point" @NHLFlyers #Flyers #NHLLockout #RT


- mochoson

my source says the season starts on time, ain't that right, Crims?
Daman
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 11 @ 8:29 AM ET
This thread ended up sucking. Just being honest.

Isnt it more fun to analyze reality?

Trading Harts is not going to happen, unless we tank like the Phillies.

MAB is fine as a number 6. We dont need him as a 4. Concussions...who knows how that will impact his career?

Timmo
Coby
Schenn
Grossmann

There is your top 4 anyway.

When I start talking serious hockey on these threads, many hicks deflect from the issues. Who is legit better than us in the East? I contend we may be 2, more, but more likely 3 to 5.

The rest is just (mostly worthless) conversation.
phantasm
Joined: 04.17.2011

Aug 11 @ 11:37 AM ET
The stat really means nothing. It's 46 games, and a drop in the bucket. And way too small of a sample size. Bourdon projects as 3rd pair defenseman in this League. And there are question marks even as far as that is concerned. Although he did make progress and showed that he can play in this League. That being said, out of Gustafsson, Manning, and Bourdon. I like Bourdon the best. But I think saying he has top 4 potential is a stretch.

And you completely missed the boat as far as judging a player over the long haul. Looking at a player and what his career potential may be, is a completely different thing then a Coach or a GM looking at how a player is playing in the moment, and the now.
Look over the course of history how many player came on the scene and played really well at first, only to fizzle out and not pan out in the long run. And not meet the hype. That's why looking at goal per 60 in a 46 game sample, to assess career potential, is pretty foolish. Now if Bourdon continues to score goals and that rate over a Season or two, then it would be a good metric to use, as far as a sign of his career potential in the NHL. Using it to say that Bourdon played well in the 46 games, would be accurate. As you can see, it completly different looking at a players current level of play in the short term, versus looking at career potential. Career potential is best judge over the long haul.

- MJL



As I said, that (G/60) was but one fact of many different points I cited that support my opinion. It wasn't used as a primary determinant, or a main factor in forming my view. Of course, everyone else gets it, but you have to latch onto any little something to try and counter my view because it serves your personal agenda. You say "Career potential is best judged over the long haul"...ok, so how many years do we wait to see what MAB's career potential will be? 3...5...7? If one waits until the player already proves/fulfills his potential, well, that kind of defeats the purpose of making a projection in the first place...talk about foolish.

I've noticed you tend to only give credit to a player for what you think he is now and not what his skills and attributes indicate he can be in the future. Like when I said Giroux had elite passing skills and you wouldn't give him that credit, citing assist numbers at the time as your primary basis. Turns out I was right and G has parlayed his elite passing (and other) skills into becoming a rising superstar in the league. I remember back then, you also saying you would trade Giroux for Jordan Staal, which is the kind of danger you face if you wait "over the long haul" to project a player's value/potential.


phantasm
Joined: 04.17.2011

Aug 11 @ 11:48 AM ET

MAB is fine as a number 6. We dont need him as a 4. Concussions...who knows how that will impact his career?

Timmo
Coby
Schenn
Grossmann

There is your top 4 anyway.


- Daman


I don't think anyone is saying MAB should be slotted in the top 4 this year...the discussion is/was about what he can be once he's more developed and experienced down the road. The Flyers lose Timonen next year, then Mez the year after. With the money freed up they should be able to land a #1 D man IF one is available, but it's likely we'll need another second pairing type in the mix. MAB might be that guy. Maybe not. We'll see.
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