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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Expectations for Luke Schenn
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bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Aug 1 @ 9:17 AM ET
Fans of teams with Jason Bay shouldn't throw rocks.
- Jsaquella


First time in years they've been ahead of the Phils in the standings. Gotta take my shots while I can.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Aug 1 @ 9:20 AM ET
First time in years they've been ahead of the Phils in the standings. Gotta take my shots while I can.
- bradleyc4



It's funny reading all the "new" Phillies fans, who never watched them before 2007 or so...when they sucked.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 1 @ 9:23 AM ET
And a starter on the Phillies.
- bradleyc4



That's what happens when a team trades away two starting outfielders in one day. Bench players become starters. The most at bats he's had in any one Season is 335. The most games he's started is 77. He's not a starting outfielder. At least not on a good team.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Aug 1 @ 9:30 AM ET
That's what happens when a team trades away two starting outfielders in one day. Bench players become starters. The most at bats he's had in any one Season is 335. The most games he's started is 77. He's not a starting outfielder. At least not on a good team.
- MJL


Yep, Mets have a similar player in Scott Hairston.

But like OrangeBlack27 said yesterday, he's still a good platoon option. If you can't acquire 2 new OFer's next season, you can use a Mayberry/Schierholtz platoon in one of the corner spots. It's not ideal and only a stopgap solution, but it's something.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 1 @ 10:05 AM ET
Yep, Mets have a similar player in Scott Hairston.

But like OrangeBlack27 said yesterday, he's still a good platoon option. If you can't acquire 2 new OFer's next season, you can use a Mayberry/Schierholtz platoon in one of the corner spots. It's not ideal and only a stopgap solution, but it's something.

- bradleyc4



Here's the deal with that. You had better hope that Dom Brown hits, and that you get a big RH bat for 3rd base. Or else Ryan Howard isn't going to see squat to hit, and you'll have another anemic batting order. And this team isn't in position for stop gap moves. It needs to win now.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Aug 1 @ 10:20 AM ET
Here's the deal with that. You had better hope that Dom Brown hits, and that you get a big RH bat for 3rd base. Or else Ryan Howard isn't going to see squat to hit, and you'll have another anemic batting order. And this team isn't in position for stop gap moves. It needs to win now.
- MJL


I understand the expectations based on an aging roster. But finding all of those pieces in one off-season seems next to impossible.
OrangeBlack27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: i do, mike, PA
Joined: 06.29.2006

Aug 1 @ 10:22 AM ET
Hey if they think they can find a player to give them 25 HR's and 90 RBI's cheaper then that, good luck.
- MJL


if those are your only measurements of production, it's rather glib.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 1 @ 10:23 AM ET
I understand the expectations based on an aging roster. But finding all of those pieces in one off-season seems next to impossible.
- bradleyc4


I agree. And that's really my point. Now there is a need for RH power bat in the lineup, again!

Look at what the Mets have paid Jason Bey, and the Nats Werth?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 1 @ 10:24 AM ET
if those are your only measurements of production, it's rather glib.
- OrangeBlack27


Probably two of the top measurements for the Power RH bat in your lineup. You would also hope that he has a good OBP also. Which Pence had in 2011.
OrangeBlack27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: i do, mike, PA
Joined: 06.29.2006

Aug 1 @ 10:28 AM ET
Probably two of the top measurements for the Power RH bat in your lineup. You would also hope that he has a good OBP also. Which Pence had in 2011.
- MJL


obp and slugging percentage are all that matter in that case. theoretically, i don't care if a guy hits 0 homers if he hits 70 doubles. and RBIs are really dependent on opportunities which are created by other players. howard drove in 150 a few years because one of rollins, vic, or utley were on base pretty much every time howard was at the plate. meanwhile, werth hit 36 homers one year but drove in less than 100 and it's because he's "not clutch".
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Aug 1 @ 10:39 AM ET
I agree. And that's really my point. Now there is a need for RH power bat in the lineup, again!

Look at what the Mets have paid Jason Bey, and the Nats Werth?

- MJL


You can find similar production for less money. Look at a guy like Josh Willingham in Minnesota.
OrangeBlack27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: i do, mike, PA
Joined: 06.29.2006

Aug 1 @ 10:50 AM ET
Yep, Mets have a similar player in Scott Hairston.

But like OrangeBlack27 said yesterday, he's still a good platoon option. If you can't acquire 2 new OFer's next season, you can use a Mayberry/Schierholtz platoon in one of the corner spots. It's not ideal and only a stopgap solution, but it's something.

- bradleyc4


schierholtz slash line against righties last two years
2011:.288/.340/.461
2012: .287/.370/.481 (walk rate improved big time this year)

mayberry slash line against lefties the last two years
2011: .306/.358/.595
2012: .280/.284/.551 (lol must walk more)

so let's say they go full-time platoon in right next year, conservatively you'd expect something like .280/.330/.460, which is pretty much michael cuddyer production (just offensively...this wouldn't account for the outstanding defense you'd get in right field which cuddyer does not provide at any of the positions he plays poorly) for something like 7 or 8 million less per season.

what's more, that's actually comparable production to pence this year for what would be probably 12 million less.
Don'tForgetTocchet
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ground Zero Brooklyn
Joined: 02.08.2007

Aug 1 @ 11:12 AM ET


oh lord
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Aug 1 @ 11:13 AM ET
Comments I would make about using up too much money would have to do with the Salary Cap requirements in the NHL. If there was no Cap, and with the financial strength of Comcast backing the Flyers. It wouldn't otherwise be an issue would it? So how is that the same?

And for the 3rd time, the Phillies did not get a starter. Schierholtz has never been an every day player! The most AB's he has had in a Season is 335!

Baseball wise, it was a poor deal!

Pence is worth 14M. Look at the numbers that were posted on what Pence put up in 2011. That is worth it.

- MJL

A WAR of 1.3 is not worth $14 million.
OrangeBlack27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: i do, mike, PA
Joined: 06.29.2006

Aug 1 @ 11:14 AM ET
A WAR of 1.3 is not worth $14 million.
- jstross


MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 1 @ 11:23 AM ET
A WAR of 1.3 is not worth $14 million.
- jstross



Pretty much a useless stat.
OrangeBlack27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: i do, mike, PA
Joined: 06.29.2006

Aug 1 @ 11:23 AM ET
Pretty much a useless stat.
- MJL


OrangeBlack27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: i do, mike, PA
Joined: 06.29.2006

Aug 1 @ 11:24 AM ET
Pretty much a useless stat.
- MJL


we should probably just stop the conversation now then
OrangeBlack27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: i do, mike, PA
Joined: 06.29.2006

Aug 1 @ 11:24 AM ET
Pretty much a useless stat.
- MJL


and one more time

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 1 @ 11:30 AM ET
and one more time


- OrangeBlack27


You can reply like that as much as you want. It's theoretical. There isn't even a standard for how it is computed. Different sites calculate it differently. It's one of those stats that are invented for people who can't look at a game and judge a player.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Aug 1 @ 11:38 AM ET
You can reply like that as much as you want. It's theoretical. There isn't even a standard for how it is computed. Different sites calculate it differently. It's one of those stats that are invented for people who can't look at a game and judge a player.
- MJL


Lmao. It's obvious you know more than RAJ. At least it's obvious you think you know more than him. Must be tough getting shirts with an opening to get your head through.
OrangeBlack27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: i do, mike, PA
Joined: 06.29.2006

Aug 1 @ 11:40 AM ET
You can reply like that as much as you want. It's theoretical. There isn't even a standard for how it is computed. Different sites calculate it differently. It's one of those stats that are invented for people who can't look at a game and judge a player.
- MJL


Sure, it's theoretical in nature, but all of these advanced stats are embraced by a growing number of teams (and maybe a majority at this point) Also, the calculation is slightly different on fangraphs and baseball-reference, but it's not like the differences are vast in their findings. How can you say a number that is calculated based on years of research of offensive, defensive and baserunning statistics, park factors, and era is "useless"?

And the "people who can't look at a game and judge a player" comment is completely ridiculous and superficial.

Did you ever think for a second that your eyes might lie to you?
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Aug 1 @ 11:43 AM ET
Sure, it's theoretical in nature, but all of these advanced stats are embraced by a growing number of teams (and maybe a majority at this point) Also, the calculation is slightly different on fangraphs and baseball-reference, but it's not like the differences are vast in their findings. How can you say a number that is calculated based on years of research of offensive, defensive and baserunning statistics, park factors, and era is "useless"?

And the "people who can't look at a game and judge a player" comment is completely ridiculous and superficial.

Did you ever think for a second that your eyes might lie to you?

- OrangeBlack27


People put down what they can't understand. WAR is over his head so to him it's meaningless.
OrangeBlack27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: i do, mike, PA
Joined: 06.29.2006

Aug 1 @ 11:50 AM ET
People put down what they can't understand. WAR is over his head so to him it's meaningless.
- jstross


I don't think it's that he or others can't understand it. The concept is pretty simple, really. I think people just don't want to change. It's not easy for people to grasp the fact that in-and-of-themselves, AVG, RBI, ERA and (edit: a pitcher's) W-L record are terribly meaningless altogether or without significant context.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 1 @ 12:04 PM ET
Lmao. It's obvious you know more than RAJ. At least it's obvious you think you know more than him. Must be tough getting shirts with an opening to get your head through.
- jstross



It may be obvious to you, but you have zero basis to make that statement. And I'll stick to the subject matter, and stay away from the personal stuff. Because I have no need to go there.
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