Make sure to follow Travis on Twitter!
--
A lot is often made about the importance of momentum coming into the post-season. As it's
normally defined, I think it's a grossly misapplied intangible that really has little to no predictive value. Take any window of ten games during a regular season, look at the corresponding record, and see if it correlates with quality of play. Sometimes, it does. Sometimes, it does not. Such is often the problem with analysis based on wins and losses, especially when one is trying to find predictive value.
This Montreal and Ottawa series is like a case study in the above. Montreal's record in the last ten games is 4-6-0. If you caught any of the TSN/CBC previews, you'd be led to believe this team couldn't get out of their own way. Ottawa's 6-4-0 in their last ten; I haven't seen anyone suggest that they're playing really, really good hockey right now. That's what happens when you see six wins in ten games. A step above mediocrity!
I guess this kind of errs on the minor side of my complaints with some of the preview literature out there, but I don't really see anything that indicates Montreal is playing poorly. What I do see is a team that couldn't buy a save down the stretch. Goaltending is a very important part of hockey, but two things lead me to believe this isn't a long-term issue for the Habs: (1) Carey Price's even-strength save percentage over the last three seasons is a strong .924; and (2) Montreal is excellent at limiting shots against, yielding less than twenty-seven shots per sixty.
If the goaltending is more likely than not to correct itself, the only other real warning signs would manifest in a team that's getting out-played at evens. I've went ahead and culled the even-strength data for their last thirteen games [essentially all of April] via Gabe's Close scripts; what you see is a club that, more or less, is playing strong hockey. I guess the overarching point is that expectations and gross early-season shooting percentages kind of skewed expectations a bit. And, now, a run of goals against has deflated everything out of nowhere.
There's a lot of good stuff there. David Desharnais has been crushing in his softer minutes; a guy like Tomas Plekanec, who gets a nice bulk against tougher competition, seems to be fairing pretty well, too. P.K. Subban, as has been the case all season long, is driving a lot of Montreal's success from the back-end. In reality, no player in particular seems too troubling. Maybe Michael Ryder, who should probably be better than break-even with his team's success and the minutes he's given. That might be nitpicky, though.
So, Montreal, not so bad. Actually, pretty good. 4-6-0 isn't 4-6-0 isn't 4-6-0; they've been a bit unlucky, and have been absolutely sandbagged by shitty goaltending.
I don't see Montreal as a team that's ripe for upset in and of itself. Why they're ripe for upset has a lot more to do with the team they're playing -- a seventh-seeded Ottawa Senators team that's been an absolute nightmare for the opposition in April.
Ottawa's been a strong possession team for the majority of the season, but their last thirteen games -- perhaps not coincidentally, marked by the return of guys like Milan Michalek, Jared Cowen, and Erik Karlsson -- have been terrifying. The team's only deficiency, it appears, is awful shooting percentages. Paul MacLean's been able to overcome that epidemic by always having the puck, and consistently out-chancing the competition. It shows in April's numbers.
The majority of the roster is getting about 58 of every 100 shot attempts at even-strength. Runaway train, if you will.
Side-note: You'll observe Patrick Wiercioch with the best possession numbers of any player on either roster over this stretch. There's been a lot of debate about whether or not he should draw into the lineup with Erik Karlsson eating up a lot of his minutes. I don't know if Paul MacLean trusts him defensively, and I do think Paul MacLean sees value in right-handed shot Eric Gryba. And, it's worth noting that Eric Gryba's really played better of late. Tough decision, indeed. Hard not to see the value in his offense game though, especially for a team often mired in scoring trouble.
As for the series: Montreal must've been thrilled to win the Northeast division, but moving from Toronto to Ottawa seems like one of the crappiest turn of events Michel Therrien's team has endured this season.
Ottawa, had they taken care of business on Saturday against Philadelphia, could've drawn into a first-round affair with a Washington team with quite suspicious underlying metrics. Alex Ovechkin is basically uncoverable, but the rest of the team doesn't strike me as the third-seeded juggernaut some have labelled after a white-hot run to end the year. I actually like the Blueshirts to take care of them in round one.
Instead, Ottawa will have to play Montreal. Again, another fantastic Eastern Conference team.
It's a shame they're playing one another, because I think in the right scenario, both would've had a real shot to advance. I mentioned this yesterday, but it's one of two series where both teams maintain at or north of 53% puck possession -- the other being that absolute knife-fight between St. Louis and Los Angeles.
I'm looking forward to the series. I'm not looking forward to the shit-flinging the local beats are going to resort to after a team falls down in the series. The puck hasn't even dropped yet, and it's already started.
A good team is going to lose to an even better team in the coming weeks. It doesn't always have to be about what Generic Team X didn't do; sometimes, it's more what Other Team Y was able to accomplish.
--
Thanks for reading!
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»