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The Northeast division wasn't exactly a lightning rod of activity this off-season, with essentially all five teams opting to take the conservative approach via free agency and the trading block.
First-place Boston's been eerily quiet -- the only news coming out of the Hub these days deal with now-exiled goaltender Tim Thomas, whose place on the team has been erased in favor of the younger Tuukka Rask.
Second-place Ottawa made a few transactions, but nothing that's going to flip the standings upside down. Guillaume Latendresse is a low-risk, high-reward signing; Mike Lundin's pretty much going to be a more serviceable version of Matt Carkner, filling out a third-pairing when in the lineup. The team packaged away fringe top-sixer Nick Foligno to Columbus for a defensive defenseman in Marc Methot, hoping to improve on a fairly ugly GAA one year ago.
Third-place Buffalo moved out of the Derek Roy era, sending the center to Dallas in exchange for a tougher, less-skilled pivot-man in Steve Ott. The Sabres also reached out to pugilist John Scott, although his value-added is somewhere between slim and none when it comes to the win // loss column.
Fourth-place Toronto pretty much focused on the extensions of internal pieces, although the team did engage in a fairly large swap of talent with Philadelphia, bringing in talented forward James van Riemsdyk in exchange for Luke Schenn.
Last-place Montreal followed in the same manner as the above-referenced four, although one could argue that a bit less flexible roster with respect to the salary cap tied their hands a bit. The Habs grabbed back Francis Bouillon, extended all-world netminder Carey Price, and added a physical presence with a bit of scoring upside in ex-New York Rangers F Brandon Prust.
In short: Unlike the Atlantic division, the Northeast division's going to look incredibly similar -- at least with respect to the faces filling out lineups -- as it did one year ago. The Boston Bruins know that they'll once again have the upper-hand, and the other four teams will again be chasing the Massachusetts giant.
However, this general notion that the standings will finish in the same manner is incredibly premature, especially with how volatile the game of professional hockey actually is. The same exact lineup can deliver extreme results on a year-to-year basis -- we've seen evidence of this quite regularly in the post-lockout era.
One team that
could should shake-up the standings in this division, though, is the Montreal Canadiens. While the Canadiens finished with a lowly 31-35-16 record and 78 PTS overall, their play as a team simply was not as bad as their finish would indicate. In an
earlier blog looking at adjusted records based on Bill James' Pythagorean splits, I noted that with the same style of play in a following year, the Montreal Canadiens could see as high as forty wins on the year -- a nine win improvement from the year prior. Much of that has to do with the fixation of a brutal run in the shootout, dropping sixteen games -- and the sixteen points left on the table.
Montreal's team last year operated on an incredibly-tight margin. They opted for low-scoring defensive games -- an optimal approach for a team that was low on puck-possession quality, high on defensive // goaltending output. The Habs ran just a -14 goal differential, yet finished with a sub-standard thirty-one wins overall.
The team will strive to improve on the puck possession and shot quality woes through talents in Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec, Erik Cole, P.K. Subban, Lars Eller, et al., but the strength and backbone of this team -- Carey Price -- should unquestionably remain a constant next year. Even in poorly-played games, Montreal could and should have a chance to win.
For argument's sake, though, let's assume that Montreal plays at a comparable level to their output from a year ago -- no better, no worse. I've looked at teams with similar goal differentials since the lockout was lifted in 2005, and noted just how -- for lack of better words, unlucky -- Montreal truly was.
Common Goal Differential, 2005
Florida Panthers (37-34-11, 85 PTS, -17)
Los Angeles Kings (42-35-5, 89 PTS, -21)
Toronto Maple Leafs (41-33-8, 90 PTS, -13)
Common Goal Differentials, 2006
Carolina Hurricanes (40-34-8, 88 PTS, -12)
Montreal Canadiens (42-34-6, 90 PTS, -11)
Toronto Maple Leafs (40-31-11, 91 PTS, -11)
Common Goal Differentials, 2007
Edmonton Oilers (41-35-6, 88 PTS, -16)
Boston Bruins (41-29-12, 94 PTS, -10)
Common Goal Differentials, 2008
Ottawa Senators (36-35-11, 83 PTS, -20)
Edmonton Oilers (38-35-9, 85 PTS, -14)
Nashville Predators (40-34-8, 88 PTS, -20)
Common Goal Differentials, 2009
Dallas Stars (37-31-14, 88 PTS, -17)
Anaheim Ducks (39-32-11, 89 PTS, -13)
Ottawa Senators (44-32-6, 94 PTS, -13)
Common Goal Differentials, 2010
Dallas Stars (42-29-11, 95 PTS, -6)
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Of the fifteen best comparables over the past six years, the single-lowest win and point total was posted by the Ottawa Senators in 2008 with thirty-six and eighty-three, respectively. Most of the wins were in the upper thirties and low forties -- most of the point totals floated in the upper eighties, with six(!) teams -- or, 40% of comparables -- finishing at or above the ninety-point threshold.
Perhaps that's why the Montreal front office hasn't been nearly as aggressive as some would've thought, especially in a first-year where turnover in the coaching staff and around the organization was sky-high. Even if last year's ugly thirty-one win run was one of the real low-points in franchise history, most can admit that at least some of the foul play was pure statistical anomaly. With the same relative production across the board, Montreal would have serious trouble replicating their thirty-one win and seventy-eight point season, positively regressing to their natural mean.
The saying, "If it ain't broke -- don't fix it," really applies here. The Montreal Canadiens are far from infallible, and they can't expect to seriously push for a playoff spot with an offense that scores just 212 GF // 82 GP. However, the alarming lack of competitiveness last year was more extreme-based analysis in hindsight as opposed to the measurement of actual quality of play.
Say what you will about Marc Bergevin, but the guy is a brilliant hockey mind, and he knows that the current roster in place is far better than last year's run would dictate. Keep the functional internal pieces, potentially fill a void or two via free agency or the trading block, and hope results normalize next season. When you consider the above, Bergevin and the rest of the front office's rationale actually makes quite a bit of sense.
If you're looking for one team to cause commotion in the Northeast, it's right in the heart of Quebec. They may not have the horses to win the division, but I'd be shocked --
no, stunned -- if there was lottery talk once again come trade deadline.
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