WildHBcommunity: Things to Know About MNWild before Free Agency July 1st
The Butterfly Effect of Signing Thomas Vanek on July 1st
I am convinced that Thomas Vanek is the primary focus for the Minnesota Wild for a number of reasons the primary being that he fits the description of what the team needs. Scoring. Much has been made of his potential to decline and have his production and ability decline if signed here to a long term deal because he is 30 years old right now BUT he is a year younger than Jason Pominville.
I think Wild General Manager Chuck Fletcher will come to an agreement with Vanek on a deal in the 3-5 year range for somewhere between $5.5-$6 Million per year. Maybe he gets less term and more money it is really of little consequence in my opinion if Vanek has his mind set on signing here.
It is very relevant that Vanek could get a huge money and term deal elsewhere and he would pursue it rather than returning to the State of Hockey but is he was to sign on with the Minnesota Wild it would be an immediate upgrade and give the team it’s most potent goal scorer since Marian Gaborik. Vanek signing here would create a butterfly effect throughout the forward line combinations and allow Fletcher the opportunity to empower Head Coach Mike Yeo with the franchise’s most talented Top 9 in history.
Vanek fits so well with Mikael Granlund and Jason Pominville in my opinion because both of those current Wild forwards are playmakers and pass first types. Granlund specifically is a wizard with the puck and he has proven capable of driving the possession and being a primary distributor from the center position. Pominville and Granlund developed very good chemistry last season playing together with multiple linemates. Vanek is the missing piece for these two and both would gladly defer scoring chances to the proven finisher on a scoring line that would surely become one of the NHL’s most potent and productive.
The Reality is Wild’s NHL Young Core Forwards May Lack Top Goal Scorer
It is still very early to pass judgment on any of the Wild’s NHL young core forwards (Granlund, Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreiter, Justin Fontine, Jason Zucker, and Erik Haula) because they all have yet to play two full seasons at the NHL level. That being said I think we have been provided a very good preview of what is in store for their futures at the NHL level.
Granlund has solidified his spot as a Top 6 centermen for the Wild while also flashing superstar ability to handle the puck and create with it. Granlund failed to launch last season as a rookie in his North American debut which was especially notable given how much hype surrounded him previous to his arrival to the State of Hockey. Granlund returned to the Wild last fall after a summer working out with other NHLers in his native of Finland.
Granlund is a special talent and his ability to respond to a lost rookie season like he did with such a strong sophomore and Sochi Olympics performance just reinforces that his ability to reach his superstar potential in the NHL is very likely. Granlund has the ability to score goals and due to injuries in Sochi for Team Finland it was interesting to see a more aggressive shooting performance from him. I am not sure though Granlund will ever be more than a 15-20 goal scorer because he is at his best creating for others.
Charlie Coyle is a kid that just flat out kills himself to compete and his two separated shoulders during the Chicago Blackhawks 2nd round series is just further proof of that. Coyle is a player that has shown an ability to light the lamp at all levels of hockey but his strength come from a hardworking brand of hockey rather than an ability to carry the puck and create his own shots. Coyle is very strong with the pucks once it is already in the zone and along the walls or in and around the net.
Coyle struggles to carry the puck with speed and when contested in open ice so far in his two seasons with the Wild. Coyle looked the most capable of the young forwards to compete at the NHL level last season but he stumbled a bit this season before getting back on track during the final month of the regular season and playoffs. Even still though until we are proven otherwise I don’t think Coyle profiles to be a primary goal scorer for the Wild until he can carry the puck and create his own shot on the rush and after gaining possession in the offensive zone.
The player most likely to be capable of scoring 30+ goals out of this young core of forwards for the Wild is Nino Niederreiter. The Swiss winger came over in a trade that saw Cal Clutterbuck shipped to Long Island. Nino is big, strong, fast, and skilled so he has the look of a winger that could develop into a driving force on offense for the Wild.
The interesting thing last season was how complete a player Nino can be as he was often deployed in a defensive role playing tough minutes with Kyle Brodziak and Matt Cooke. Nino has very good hands for a player his size and a tremendous shot. Nino had the look of a young player that feels the pressure to please the organization and silence his doubters after how his Islanders career got off track.
It is interesting still that although I think we all agree the most likely player in this group to become a primary goal scorer for this franchise is Nino, I am not sure he even projects to be in the Top 6 forwards for opening night this coming season. Nino scored the series clinching goal in Colorado on a snipe breaking towards the net on the rush. Very rarely last year did Nino get loose with the puck on his stick but that will change especially if he is playing with Erik Haula next season.
Haula can certainly score goals as he proved to be the most dangerous offensive weapon during his time in Des Moines last year with the Baby Wild. Haula is so valuable because he plays a skilled versatile style of hockey. Haula is by no means a sniper but he uses his speed and aggressiveness to create his own scoring opportunities which came in handy especially once he was playing consistent penalty kill minutes. Haula is slated to center the Wild’s third line next season and his 200 foot style of play will safeguard his spot in the lineup even though he probably wont score more than 25 goals on the high end.
With Jason Zucker and Justin Fontaine both have come under fire from Yeo for not being defensively responsible. As such each will have to earn their spots in the Wild’s lineup and neither can be viewed as a significant contributor until they lock up a spot on the roster and consistent role and ice time. Both of these wingers have been the top goal scorer for the Wild’s AHL affiliate but each is hard to trust for a number of reasons despite their skill sets and potential.
Decisions Made by Fletcher on July 1st Will Shed Light on his Plan
I see this as going about three directions for Fletcher and the Wild this summer to address needs and add to the current roster. Here the contingency plans as I see them taking place in this order:
1. Sign Thomas Vanek to deal between 2 to 4 years in length no more $6 Million Dollar Cap Hit on the 3-4yr deal or possibly more money on less years like 1-2 year deal. There has been too much posturing towards Vanek returning to Minnesota to allow money or length to get in the way. If Vanek signs here he will score goals and have a blast being a member of this current group.
2. If Vanek has decided to go elsewhere I could see several ways to approach it for Fletcher which would lead to offering a long term sort of deal to Matt Niskanen maybe a bit less money than he will be offered by other teams but pairing with Ryan Suter and returning to Minnesota would be the allure. If Niskanen is off the table then the strategy should be 1-2 yr deals with bridge veteran types at forward like Jarome Ignila, Brian Gionta, Ales Hemsky, Milan Michalek, Radim Vrbata, Mike Cammalleri, Mason Raymond, and Benoit Pouliot. The defensemen bridge veterans I could see added are Dan Boyle, Christian Erhoff, Tom Gilbert, Adrej Mezaros, Andre Benoit, and Willie Mitchell.
3. The last and least likely option could see Fletcher look to make a major move via trade to acquire a #1 scorer or a Top 2 defenseman this summer. I have floated names of wingers rumored to be available like Bobby Ryan, Evander Kane, Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal, Nail Yakupov, Brett Connelly, Patrick Sharp, and Nazim Kadri. The blue liners I think that could be moved and would represent an upgrade for the Wild via trade would be Bryan Campbell, Mike Green, Dustin Byfuglien, Zach Bogosian, Tyler Myers, and Brent Seabrook.
What an Interesting Week on the Horizon for Minnesota Wild
I think the road runs through Vanek for the Wild this summer so to attempt to understand how they will approach begins with the very early moments on July 1st whether they have a deal done with him or not. I think Niskanen has earned a mega deal through gambling on himself so although I don’t view him as a #1 defender he will get paid like one by someone other than the Wild. Paul Statsny is a near lock in my mind to return to Colorado or depart to St. Louis via a mega long term contract which almost immediately eliminated the Wild from contention.
Fletcher has many areas to address this summer so every decision made will have an effect on the rest of the roster. An interesting note I didn’t realize until Michael Russo wrote it yesterday but although Darcy Kuemper will most certainly get a one way contract as a restricted free agent this summer, he will not require waivers to be assigned to Iowa. That means to me that if we don’t see Niklas Backstrom moved in a trade before opening night then Kuemper will begin the season with the Baby Wild.
It was surprising to see how little movement on the trade front occurred at the 2014 NHL Draft which indicated a couple things to me the first being draft picks held less value and precedence in the trade market this year especially given how highly thought of next year's class is. The other thought I had was team being able to interview unrestricted free agents has changed how GMs posture and leverage their off season plan so after the first couple free agent dominoes fall then the trade market floodgates will open up.
I will post a Blog with my Twitter Feed in it tomorrow so you can check in for ALL the Minnesota Wild related information I find as I scour the interwebs trying to get the most accurate breaking news!
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Just My Take,
Tony Dean
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