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There hasn't been much in the way of Calgary Flames news of late. Check that, there hasn't been *any* Calgary Flames news of late.
With the off-season still in quiet mode, I figured it'd be fun to look back at my Western Conference predictions from the year that was. What did I get right? What did I get wrong? Why?
Let's examine.
We'll start with the Pacific Division.
1. Edmonton - They have arguably the league's best player and a star goaltender, so they're going to win a lot of games. That said, I do worry about their depth, or lack thereof, on defense.
Yikes...not a good start. I'm used to Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, and many of the league's truly elite players making the playoffs annually. You'd think someone who *currently* garners better results than those guys would be able to get into the playoffs but apparently not. Cam Talbot took a big step back, their special teams were awful, and I was right to be concerned about the lack of depth. Apparently I didn't weigh that enough as I had the Oilers winning the division, albeit a weak one. Whoops. I'll take the L there.
2. Calgary - Their top-9 forwards are excellent and their top-4 on defense is among the best in the league. The Mike Smith-Eddie Lack tandem scares me enough to keep Calgary out of top spot, though.
This is fun, isn't it? Maybe I should stop while I'm ahead. As it turns out, I predicted the Flames would have one more quality line and one more quality pairing than they did. Their bottom-6 was mostly a train wreck. The T.J. Brodie - Travis Hamonic pairing wasn't close to good enough. Mike Smith was better than expected but goaltending still ended up being a problem spot. Another L.
3. Anaheim - If healthy, they'd be my pick to win the division. I think playing without Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, and Ryan Kesler to start the season will cost them some points they won't be able to make up.
Ah, that's better. I had them 3rd in the division in part because of early season injuries. They started slow, as expected, and ended up finishing 2nd in the division. I was on the right track with this one – I'll take it.
4. Los Angeles - They have some holes on their roster, but I think they're being underrated by many this season. They almost always control play, they have two star centers in Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter, some quality goal-scoring wingers in Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson, a rock solid top-4, and Jonathan Quick (while overrated, he's still pretty good). I think they'll have a bounce-back season.
I had them 4th in the Pacific and thought they'd make the playoffs. They finished 4th in the Pacific and made the playoffs. I'll take that win and move back to .500.
5. San Jose - I'm a little down on this Sharks team. Only one winger on their current roster had more than 35 points last season (Joe Pavelski) and it's concerning how much they rely on their older players. Joe Thornton is 38, Brent Burns is 32 and Pavelski is 33. It's only a matter of time before age starts to catch up with them.
The Sharks had five (5!) full-time wingers step up and surpass 35 points this year. Joe Thornton missed 35 games. Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns combined to score 24 fewer goals than a year ago. I was right to be concerned about #TheVets but enough guys stepped up to get them into the playoffs. I was close but wrong on this one.
6. Arizona - I love what they did during the off-season adding the likes of Derek Stepan, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jason Demers, and Antti Raanta to compliment a promising, young core. They should take a step forward this season, and seriously contend for a playoff spot within a year or two.
The Coyotes were really good when Antti Raanta started. Unfortunately, he missed some time with injuries and no other goaltender on the roster could give them a save.
they grabbed some good scorers in expansion (James Neal, Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, David Perron, etc.) and they have some nice, young pieces to work with on defense (Shea Theodore, Colin Miller, Nate Schmidt, etc.).
The Golden Knights have enough talent on their roster to be at least somewhat competitive right now and their future looks really bright with all the young players and picks they accumulated.
That's what I wrote about Vegas in mid-July. I should have stuck with that thinking and not placed them 7th in an awful division. My bad on that one. Lesson learned.
8. Vancouver - They're lacking in high-end talent, and *most* of their name-brand players are well past their prime. Bo Horvat is solid, and Brock Boeser will be a ton of fun to watch, but there isn't much to be excited about on this team.
I know they didn't finish last in the division but a) they were close and; b) everything I wrote in that blurb was true. I'll take a W for that.
Let's move to the Central.
1. Minnesota - They're really deep up front, their defense is solid, and Devan Dubnyk is one of the better goaltenders in the league. Bruce Boudreau coached teams almost always win the division and I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case again this year.
They didn't win the division but they finished 4th in the West and finished with 100+ points. I was a little too high on them but I was right to think they'd comfortably make the playoffs.
2. Nashville - They have some really talented forwards and, even without Ryan Ellis, their top-4 on defense is excellent. As long as Pekka Rinne holds up, or Jusse Saros gets semi-consistent starts, they should be very good.
I had them 2nd. They finished 1st. Everyone expected them to be very good and they were.
3. Winnipeg - They are stacked up front and their defense has some nice pieces. If Steve Mason gets the job done in goal -- I think he will -- the Jets will finally take the next step.
I really liked this Jets team from the start. They were
my Western Conference surprise team, after all. It wasn't Steve Mason who carried the load, obviously, but I was right to be high on them.
4. Dallas - I'm still not sold on their defense core but they are going to score a *ton* of goals.
Silly me for thinking a Ken Hitchcock team would "score a ton of goals." Dallas was everyone's sexy pick in the off-season and I was right to be down on them more than most. It didn't end up being for the right reason, though.
5. Chicago - I don't like their defense but they have enough firepower to remain competitive, especially with Corey Crawford between the pipes.
Their defense was awful and Corey Crawford did mask a lot of the team's problems. The wheels fell off when he went down, though. I was on the right track here.
6. St. Louis - I'm kind of down on the Blues this season. Looking at their roster, they are very shallow up front and they only have two top-4 defensemen (Colton Parayko and Alex Pietrangelo). I could see them taking a step back in a very tough division.
I had them 6th in the Central and not making the playoffs. They finished 5th in the Central and did not make the playoffs. They were shallow up front – it's no coincidence they finished last in the division in goals – and, while Vince Dunn showed promise, their lack of established top-4 defenders was an issue. Another win here.
7. Colorado - I don't expect the Avs to be a tire fire this season -- Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Barrie, and Semyon Varlamov, among others, are in line for some positive regression -- but I can't put them above any of their division-mates.
They weren't a tire fire and all of those guys did enjoy positive regression. I didn't see Nathan MacKinnon being an MVP candidate and pushing them into the playoffs, though. I was right to think they'd take a step forward but I certainly didn't envision *that* big of a leap. I underestimated them.
All in all my predictions were a mixed bag, as you'd expect in a parity filled NHL. My best hits include Winnipeg, St. Louis, Los Angeles and Anaheim while I was way off on the Alberta teams and Vegas.
Hopefully I can be a little better next year.
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