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Following a couple days off to chew on a tough loss, the Calgary Flames will look to rebound tonight when they host the Florida Panthers.
While the Panthers have been decimated by injuries from the word go, which is a big reason they have not lived up to expectations, they only sit two points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
Meanwhile, the Flames only have a two point cushion over the Nashville Predators for a wild card spot so, suffice to say, these points are pivotal for both teams.
On the surface, it would seem the two sides are on equal footing based on their records of late -- both have won five of 10 -- but the underlying numbers suggest that's far from the case.
Over the last 10 games, the Flames are controlling ~54% of the shot attempts and ~51% of the scoring chances at 5v5. The Panthers are controlling ~49% of the attempts and ~42% of the chances over that same span. That's a big gap.
If both teams continue on their current trends one would think the Flames will come out on top tonight. We'll see if that's the case.
Here are the expected line combinations for the Flames:
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik
Johnny Gaudreau - Sam Bennett - Alex Chiasson
Kris Versteeg - Sean Monahan - Troy Brouwer
Lance Bouma - Matt Stajan - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - Dougie Hamilton
T.J. Brodie - Dennis Wideman
Jyrki Jokipakka - Deryk Engelland
Chad Johnson
And the expected lines for the Panthers (via dailyfaceoff.com):
Seth Griffith - Vincent Trocheck - Jaromir Jagr
Jonathan Marchessault - Jussi Jokinen - Reilly Smith
Jared McCann - Michael Sgarbossa - Colton Sceviour
Paul Thompson - Derek MacKenzie - Shawn Thornton
Keith Yandle - Mark Pysyk
Michael Matheson - Jason Demers
Jakub Kindl - Aaron Ekblad
Roberto Luongo
A few notes:
1) In more than 400 minutes together at 5v5, the Giordano - Hamilton pairing has a plus-6 goal differential and are controlling 56.5% of the shot attempts after adjusting for score. They have been dominant and should be able to control the game against an injury-riddled Panthers team.
2) The Panthers have a very mobile, offensively gifted blue line and they like to jump into the play to create offense. The Flames will need to make sure they backcheck hard and watch for trailers jumping up to create an extra layer of offense.
3) If I'm Glen Gulutzan, I'm getting the Jokipakka - Engelland pairing out against Florida's 4th line whenever possible. Both units have, well, struggled so matching them up should help prevent Jokipakka and Engelland from being exposed.
Tonight's game is scheduled for 9:00 eastern and can be seen SNW and FS-F.
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