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The New Jersey Devils started the season as well as anyone but have since cooled off in a big way.
They've lost three consecutive games, allowed 13 goals in that span, and looked closer to a lottery team than a playoff team.
Luckily, they have some reinforcements coming their way as Kyle Palmieri is expected to return tonight vs Edmonton.
The Oilers have been one of the biggest disappointments thus far -- they've won five times in 14 games and are as close to last place as they are a playoff spot -- but they haven't played as poorly as their record suggests. Far from it, actually.
At 5v5, the Oilers rank 2nd in Corsi For%, 1st in Scoring Chance For%, 2nd in High-Danger Scoring Chance For%, and 3rd in Expected Goals For%.
They're generating a lot of good looks but just haven't had any luck go their way. Despite some of the high-end talent they have up front, the Oilers are 30th in 5v5 shooting percentage as goaltenders are stopping an unsustainably high .946% of their shots.
They are due for some positive regression and, when that happens, the wins should be there a lot more frequently.
Whether the Oilers dig themselves too big of a hole before that happens remains to be seen but this team is much better than their record suggests. This will be another stiff test for the Devils.
Here are the projected lineups:
New Jersey
Taylor Hall - Nico Hischier - Kyle Palmieri
Jesper Bratt - Adam Henrique - Drew Stafford
Brian Gibbons - Brian Boyle - Jimmy Hayes
Miles Wood - Blake Coleman - Stefan Noesen
Andy Greene - Steven Santini
John Moore - Mirco Mueller
Will Butcher - Ben Lovejoy
Cory Schneider
Edmonton (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Patrick Maroon - Connor McDavid - Leon Draisaitl
Milan Lucic - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Anton Slepyshev
Jussi Jokinen - Ryan Strome - Iiro Pakarainen
Brad Malone - Mark Letestu - Zack Kassian
Darnell Nurse - Adam Larsson
Oscar Klefbom - Matt Benning
Kris Russell - Eric Gryba
Cam Talbot
Five things to watch:
1) 132 defensemen have played at least 180 minutes at 5v5 this season. Of that group, Santini ranks 132nd in Corsi For% and 131st in Scoring Chance For%. Tough minutes -- and almost no offensive zone starts -- make Santini look worse than he is, but he's clearly having a tough time taking on so much responsibility. The Santini vs McDavid matchup will probably not end well for the Devils.
2) Schneider has faced at least 37 shots in four consecutive games. The defense is really starting to bleed shots and that likely won't change tonight against an Oilers team that generates shots on goal at a higher clip than every team in the league. Schneider will have to be good.
3) Just 13 defensemen have recorded 60+ shot attempts at 5v5 this season. Of the 13, three (Klefbom, Nurse, and Larsson) are Oilers. They really like to get the defense involved so that's something the Devils will need to be aware of tonight.
4) The following teams generate scoring chances at a higher clip than Edmonton while up a man: Dallas. That's it. The Devils really need to be disciplined in this one. If they're not, the Oilers will make them pay.
5) McDavid, Draisaitl, and Maroon rank 1-2-3 on the team in 5v5 points and 5v5 chances. The Oilers haven't had much secondary scoring so if the Devils can find a way to limit the damage they cause, they should be in good shape. Obviously, that's easier said than done.
Puck drop is just after 7:00 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on MSG+ and SNW.
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