11th Ranked Habs Idling in Purgatory
In what has been a season filled with question mark after question mark, smoking the Leafs by a score of 5-0 on Mats Sundin night was certainly a bright spot for the Montreal Canadiens, but where does it leave them?
Picking up their fourth consecutive win in such a commanding fashion at such a precarious time of the season has temporarily spelled the Habs "Fail for Nail" campaign and now has them eyeing the possibility of sliding into the post-season.
Though beyond reach a month ago, the Canadiens now sit 3 points back of the 10th place Jets and 6 points back of the Capitals for 9th place, with Toronto being only one point ahead of Washington and enjoying that eighth and final playoff spot.
And while a brief winning streak has pulled them a few steps out of the basement, their current positioning has them in NHL purgatory.
Four points out of last in the East and 6 points out of the final playoff spot, the Montreal Canadiens are now wedged between the reality of being sellers and the increasing possibility of becoming buyers.
And what would a fifth consecutive win do for the Habs?
It would put them in an even greater state of desperation.
The closer they crawl towards a potential playoff spot, the smaller the window of opportunity for unloading potential UFA assets and landing a top 10 pick (or better).
Or does it?
Win/Win?
While I can appreciate the notion that the closer the Canadiens edge towards a potential playoff berth the less likely it becomes that they will move a larger contingent of assets, I am not so sure that would be the case.
Ever since the Cammalleri for Bourque trade, Randy Cunneyworth and his coaching staff have the Habs playing to a different tune. They are playing winning hockey and the emphasis has truly been on letting the young core of the team lead the way.
The fact that Montreal's coaching staff is getting winning hockey out of the players that are most likely to stay is a huge positive.
With forwards like Cole, Pacioretty, Desharnais, Eller, Leblanc, Bourque and Plekanec showing renewed signs of life, as well as the youngsters on the blue line carrying the load, the Habs still have room to move a few players even if they keep winning.
Prime candidates to move are all the usual suspects that have been mentioned going on well over a month; Hal Gill, Travis Moen, Yannick Weber, Chris Campoli, and possibly Andrei Kostitsyn, Tomas Kaberle and Mathieu Darche.
While moving all of those players would undoubtedly compromise the team's ability to compete for a playoff spot, that doesn't mean that moving a few of them would hurt the way they've currently been playing.
But let's get back to the Habs playoff chances.
Balancing Act
Although Montreal sits among a cluster of teams in virtually the same position, one interesting aspect that has gone unnoticed is that, of the 15 teams in the Eastern Conference, Montreal is one of only 6 teams that sits even (or better) in goals for/against ratio.
And of those 6 teams, the Canadiens are the only ones not sitting in a playoff spot.
Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that since Montreal is even on the year, having scored 149 goals and allowing the same, that they're destined to leap teams en route to a playoff spot, only that the Habs seem to play a better all around game.
Ironically, in the Habs case, that leaves out the fact that they have the worst power play in the league. Had they better success on the man advantage to go along with the success they've found in other categories than this debate may have never taken place.
Now, with 26 games left on the year and the need to earn at least 38 points in those 26 games (meaning they need to earn 73% of the remaining points available), that waning power play may be the only thing keeping this team from streaking to the post-season. If they can improve their luck on the power play than the idea of reaching the post-season may not be as faint as some believe it to be.
At 13.1%, the current power play is a far cry from the league leading units of the past few seasons and with 7 games remaining between now and the trade deadline, time is running out for them to improve in that department.
Trading Places
So, while the power play may lie at the root of the team's struggles this season, the need for change has gone beyond simply switching out the coaches.
Getting back to potential trade candidates and whether or not they will move based on the Habs recent play, there are a few things to keep in mind.
With Ryan White and Ian Schultz getting the call-up from Hamilton, the role of Travis Moen becomes less important. White, a character that has been desperately needed since the start of the season, adds the youthful element that Moen lacks while providing many similar intangibles, if not more, while Schultz, clearly still a work in progress, brings the physical element that can back up White's rugged game. Together they provide Montreal with a youthful and somewhat talented infusion for the 4th line.
Given Moen's value to the team, as he fills roles on whatever line the coaching staff slots him in, he's truly a grinder that would be best served on a team like the Red Wings or Sharks. Though he possesses an upside Montreal could use moving forward, his value on the market this season coupled with the return of a healthy Ryan White may override whatever desire there is to keep him.
Tied to this situation is another Montreal grinder whose played above his head recently, most notably on the penalty kill; Mathieu Darche. Like Moen, Darche has found himself filling a utility role on various lines while contributing in a solid way, his goal against Toronto on Saturday capping what has been a strong recent stretch. And while he may not have as much value as Moen on the market, lest we forget the Habs early season acquisition of Peteri Nokelainen. He is a pending RFA and someone Montreal is likely considering grooming in place of the older Darche.
So, there's room to move those two players, but what about the rest?
One thing to keep in mind, which should be more or less strictly attached to Montreal's potential playoff hopes, is the return of both Andrei Markov and Brian Gionta. While Markov is partaking in strength conditioning at the moment and is a ways away from returning, like Gionta, there's no reason to think that they wouldn't do their best to be ready for a playoff run. And though that puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the guys currently carrying the load, there would certainly be no greater reward for this bunch than for them to make the playoffs and receive their captain and assistant captain back in the lineup as a bonus.
But that's a "what-if" scenario of the highest magnitude as if only do the Habs pull off the near impossible might that become a reality.
Yet in considering that both Markov and Gionta bring a lethal amount of value to the lineup, looking forward brings us to the consideration that there are still other players who may not be needed next season.
The primary of which is Hal Gill. Though the gentle giant has been a superstar in a Habs jersey, he finds himself in a similar situation to that of Travis Moen, with his market value perhaps superseding his value to the Canadiens moving forward.
With Jarred Tinordi on his way up and with Alexei Emelin and Raphael Diaz proving to be truly valuable additions to the lineup, Gill stands at the top of the list of most desired Habs defensemen.
Following him on that list, and to much lesser degrees, are players like Chris Campoli, Tomas Kaberle and Yannick Weber.
While Campoli and Kaberle both fit into the "replace Markov" category, Weber remains an in-house asset who may secretly have more value to Montreal than the two vets.
Campoli, a pending UFA, is definitely being shopped and is certainly open to, and likely hoping for, a trade to a contender. Though he's been helping the cause as of late, with other young studs like Nathan Bealieu and Morgan Ellis destined for the Habs blue line in the next two years, there's simply not enough room for Campoli beyond the trade deadline so expect him to move.
Kaberle is a long shot in terms of the fact that his contract extends through next two seasons, and there aren't that many GM's keen on taking vet defenders at his rate, but with improved production as of late, there's far more hope there than in the Scott Gomez department.
Moving on to two final potential pieces that may move, Yannick Weber and Andrei Kostitsyn are two assets that the Canadiens may actually prefer to keep moving forward.
Though Kostitsyn has "under-performed" in regards to his true potential, he hasn't been a complete waste and, if rumors are true that he'd be interested in taking a home-town discount to stay with the Habs, it may just be in the Canadiens best interest to keep the capable 20 goal scorer around for a few more seasons.
As for Weber, though his rise has been far more of a flat line in comparison to that of PK Subban's, he's a very talented offensive defender who has proven himself to be quite versatile. Though he may fetch some decent value on the current trade market, with other defenders striking up more interest, there's likely a far greater need to keep a guy like Weber around should any of the other blue-liners move (not to mention as an RFA he is a logical choice to keep).
These next two weeks are the Canadiens version of "through the looking glass" as they step into the void between enticingly valuable draft picks and the highly sought-after final playoff spot. Falling anywhere in between would be a disaster, yet perched on the fence between both worlds, the team has no choice but to take the next 7 contests between now and the trade deadline one game at a time.
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