Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

The Mike Green Effect

February 15, 2012, 11:05 AM ET [15 Comments]
Steven Hindle
Washington Capitals Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Caps Twice the Team with Green in Lineup


Since the start of the season, a question has been on my mind.

At first it was just a little bit of curiosity on behalf of a guy who covers two teams very closely, a thought about the longevity and endurance of both the Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals premiere defensemen. And though I was prepared to move on from that thought as both Markov and Green were supposed to be back in action this season, it was more of a laugh to think of how both clubs would be without #79 and #52 as there was little doubt they would be back.

Well, as it turns out, those thoughts never went away because the idea of Andrei Markov or Mike Green returning to make an impact for either club this season has yet to materialize.

As you can discover in my piece on The Andrei Markov Effect, the Montreal Canadiens are 2 different teams with and without their top defender. Having played in only 212 of Montreal's 385 games since 2007-08, the Canadiens boast a record 55 games over. 500 with him in the lineup (117-68-27) versus a record only 2 games over .500 without him (77-75-21).

Incredibly, nearly the same effect has transpired with the Washington Capitals and their oft-injured #1 defennder, Mike Green.

Since the basis of these pieces had to begin with a common denominator, I choose the 2007-08 season because this was the last season that both Andrei Markov and Mike Green played in all 82 games for their respective teams.

Since that year, both have been incapable of playing complete seasons.

Green, the NHL's most gifted offensive defenseman, when healthy, has officially missed 100 games since the 2007-08 season.

In those 100 games, the Caps aren't exactly pushovers, having produced a record of 56-38-6 without Green.

But that is but a pittance of their power as compared to when Green is healthy and in the lineup.

In 284 games with Mike Green since '07/08, the Caps have a record of 167-78-39, good for 373 points.

To compare, the Capitals have earned 1.18 points per game without Mike Green in the lineup while, when healthy, the Caps earn 1.31 points per game.

Though not a massive difference, it's something that's becoming more and more noticeable.

In 2007-08, Green played all 82 games, helping the Caps a record of 43-31-8 as they squeaked into playoffs. His play was a major catalyst as he broke out offensively, producing 18 goals and 36 assists for 54 points, including 23 on the power play. Skating a respectable 23:38, his responsibilities continued to increase as the season wore on.

Though a solid campaign for both Green and the Caps, the true breakthrough wouldn't come until 2008-09 when the Caps would surge to the top of the Eastern Conference, producing a record of 50-24-8 and 108 points.

Blossoming into a point per game player, Green scored an astronomical 31 goals, including 18 on the power play. Still only 23, the Caps thrust a tremendous amount of pressure on his shoulders as Green skated his career high average of 25:45 per game, playing in 68 games.

Handling his new-found responsibilities with relative ease, Green added 42 assists to his 31 goals to bring his totals to an incredible 73 points in 68 games played.

As a result, the Caps boasted the 2nd best power play in the league, producing 25.2% of the time while #52 earned 38 of his 73 points on the man advantage.

Though he produced career highs, Green would go on to miss 14 games that season while the Caps would play to only a .500 record without him (7-7-0). In the 68 games he did play in, Washington was 43-17-8, good enough for 94 of their 108 points on the year. That's a difference of 1.38 points earned per game with Green in the lineup versus 1.00 points per game with him out of the lineup.

While young as a team, the success the Caps were finding was only spurring on the building belief that Washington was becoming a Cup contender, something they would reinforce the following year with an even more impressive record of 54-15-3.

Earning 121 points in 2010-11 to earn the President's Trophy as the team with the most points in the NHL, the Caps got an even better year out of Green as the now 24 year old went on to play 75 games for the Caps, once again earning better than a point per game as he produced 76 points.

Dropping from 31 to 19 goals on the year, Green learned to adapt his offensive abilities as team's became accustomed to getting in the way of his booming shot. Translating those shots into passes, Green set a career high in assists with 57, including 25 on the NHL's top power play unit.

Unfortunately for Washington, those tremendous seasons only led to untimely exits from the post-season, something that has built up to a now unbearable amount of pressure on this Capitals team.

Succumbing to criticism and the need to play better beyond April, the Caps began tweaking and tinkering with the way they played. As a result, players did not enjoy the same type of year in 2010-11, though the team was still capable of earning top spot in the Eastern Conference with a record of 48-23-11, good for 107 points.

In Mike Green's case, this was the beginning of his troubles as he would only manage to play in 49 games for the Caps in 2010-11, producing 8 goals and 24 points while skating 25:11 a night. And while Green himself was undergoing an attempt to transform his game, attempting to become a better two-way defender, he wound up sacrificing some of his greatest abilities on offense.

Thanks to this, the Caps power play dropped from its league-leading status of the past few years to middle-of-the-pack effectiveness, finishing the season ranked 16th on the man advantage, scoring on only 17.5% of their opportunities.

Interestingly enough, while Green would go on to miss 33 games that year, the Caps would show little sign of having lost his presence on the blue line, producing a record of 23-9-1. Contrasted with the 25-14-10 record with Green in the lineup and the team actually earned more points per game with him out of the lineup.

That said, though the team stayed par for the course through Green's absence, their power play suffered while the penalty kill rose all the way to 2nd in the NHL, killing off 85.6% of their penalties.

Pressured to become a better all-around blue-liner, Green has also been plagued by injuries.

Though he played 8 games in the playoffs last year, producing 6 points, it wasn't enough of an impact to push Washington over the edge. Losing to Tampa Bay, the Caps were once again sent back to the drawing board in order to fill the voids in their lineup.

Now, to this point, you have to realize that the Capitals were more or less capable of playing without Green in the lineup. Though while absent the team would not exactly be the same force, they still showed little sign of missing him. At least, not all the time.

Until this year, that is.

This season, more so than any other year in the past, the absence of Mike Green has hit home, hard.

Having played 10 games with the team this season, Green has produced 3 goals, all on the power play and 6 points, guiding Washington to a record of 9-1-0 when in the lineup.

Without him, the Caps have been an absolute mess.

True, there are many other issues hounding this team at the moment, but without their anchor on the blue line, not one element of this team seems to have a modicum of consistency.

Without #52, the Caps are 19-22-5 in 46 games. The power play is 12th in the NHL, clicking at 18.0%, while the penalty kill is among the worst in the NHL, sitting 25th with a success ratio of 80.1%.

And though it can easily be argued that the problems are far greater than the simple absence of Mike Green, it's becoming more and more apparent that he is a great stabilizing force for this club. More so, he is a defining character who is capable of pushing the other talented players in Washington to reach their potential.

He is the outlet for this team's offense. A greater catalyst than Ovechkin or Semin and as clutch a piece, if not more, than Nicklas Backstrom. When healthy.

And therein lies the dilemma.

While a far different story from the results the Canadiens produce without their premiere defenseman, Andrei Markov, the Caps are quickly learning how valuable Mike Green is to their chances for success.

Mike Green has been in the lineup for 75% of Washington's 223 victories since 2007-08.

When in the lineup, the Caps lose only 26% of their games.

In the 284 games he's played since '07-08, he has produced 235 points (79-156-235), including 44 goals and 99 points on the power play.

And he's only 26 years old.

It's tough to say that all the Capitals need is for Mike Green to return to the lineup as Backstrom's absence and the sheer tail-off of so many valuable pieces has, for the first time in 5 years, put Washington in a very real position to miss the playoffs. But, given the turmoil they have been through without him this season alone, and the fact that despite an MVP-like performance by Dennis Wideman the Caps aren't the same team, it's easy to see how much they miss this guy.

With George McPhee burning up the wires in hopes of striking a few deals before the February 27th trade deadline, it should be interesting to see what happens to the makeup of this team before the return of Mike Green.

He is skating and progressing well in his return from surgery and the hope is that he may suit up sometime in early March.

So, while we can all agree that Washington is in a far greater need to do more than just get Green back, it's hard to argue what he brings to the Caps lineup.

He is the leader of the young core of this Capitals team and while others boast letters, including Ovechkin who has the "C," none of them are as strong without him.

It's been an agonizing season for the Washington Capitals as they've truly fallen from their once regular perch atop the Eastern Conference, and while trades will hopefully solve more than a few issues, the biggest impact player the Caps could hope to insert in their lineup over the next few weeks is Mike Green.




www.twitter.com/StevenHindle
Join the Discussion: » 15 Comments » Post New Comment
More from Steven Hindle
» Realignment Opens Door to Many Possibilities...
» Caps Extend Holtby & Erskine for 2 More Years
» Runaway Train
» Time for a Look in the Mirror
» Who Are These Guys?