Unlocking the Mystery Behind #11's Scoring Woes
The following is a breakdown of Scott Gomez' scoring patterns from the last six seasons.
With a sample size of two years with each of the Devils, Rangers and Canadiens since the lockout, there is a very even playing field with which to compare each of Gomez' seasons against. What is most interesting are the details hidden in the numbers which shed light on why some fans and critics will never fully understand the scope of who Scott Gomez is as a player.
Before sampling the numbers, know this; Scott Gomez is a play-maker extraordinaire, but as you will come to see, simply does not have the consistency to score enough goals to make him the regular point-per-game player whose production would come close to the value of his contract.
It's a harsh reality but consider it as some baggage left over from the pre-Centennial era in Montreal when the team had to "overpay" to land even decent players.
And while Gomez will never escape harassment over having accepted such a lucrative deal from known-to-be-screwball-at-times, Glen Sather, it still remains his burden to bare. Had his deal come in at an average of $2 million less per season, it would no doubt be far more stomach-able than his current cap hit, yet hope is not lost on the value that Scott Gomez brings to the Montreal Canadiens, you just have to look deep enough.
Scott Gomez' Totals Since Lockout:
2005/06: 82 games played for the New Jersey Devils
Devils Record: 46-27-9(1st in Atlantic, 3rd in EC)
Playoff Result: Lost 4 games to 1 in 2nd round to Hurricanes
Regular Linemates: Gionta & Elias(Parise)
Telling Tale..: This was Gionta's greatest goal scoring year, and Gomez' too. Little do people realize that it is this singular successful season that has forever skewed perception over Scott Gomez' potential.
Goals: 33 (GPG: 0.40)
Assists: 51 (APG: 0.62)
Points: 84 (PPG: 1.02)
PIM: 42
+/-: +8
2006/07: 72 games played for the New Jersey Devils
Devils Record: 49-24-9(1st in Atlantic, 2nd in EC)
Playoff Result: Lost 4 games to 1 in 2nd round to Senators
Regular Linemates: Gionta and Elias(Parise/Rafalski/Langenbrunner)
Telling Tale..: The "year after." Following tremendous success the previous season, and after having visited the arbitrator with Uncle Lou, Gomez' and the rest of his Devils teammates totals dropped rather significantly. Call it what you like, but Gomez' output in this season is much more on par with his true capabilities.
Goals: 13 (GPG: 0.18)
Assists: 47 (APG: 0.65)
Points: 60 (PPG: 0.83)
PIM: 42
+/-: +7
Totals with Devils: 154 games
Goals: 46 (GPG: 0.30)
Assists: 98 (APG: 0.63)
Points: 144 (PPG: 0.94)
PIM: 84
+/-: +15
Playoff Totals with Devils: 20 games
Goals: 9 (GPG: 0.45)
Assists: 14 (APG: 0.70)
Points: 23 (PPG: 1.15)
PIM: 20
+/-: N/A
2007/08: 81 games played for the New York Rangers
Rangers Record: 42-27-13(3rd in Atlantic, 5th in EC)
Playoff Results: Lost 4 games to 1 in 2nd round to Penguins
Regular Linemates: Jagr and Straka(Shannahan/Avery/Dawes)
Telling Tale..: Along with his big pay-day in the Big Apple came a fresh start and another strong season from Gomez. Although not exceeding his potential, though coming very close to his legitimate ceiling in terms of production, Gomez had decent production with not-so-great chemistry alongside Jaromir Jagr. In a time of turmoil in New York, it some became evident Gomez wasn't necessarily comfortable with the Rangers.
Goals: 16 (GPG: 0.20)
Assists: 54 (APG: 0.67)
Points: 70 (PPG: 0.86)
PIM: 36
+/-: +3
2008/09: 77 games played for the New York Rangers
Rangers Record: 43-30-9(4th in Atlantic, 7th in EC)
Playoff Result: Lost 4 games to 3 in 1st round to Capitals
Regular Linemates: Callahan/Naslund(Zherdev/Dawes)
Telling Tale..: Following the final years of the Jagr project in New York, the Rangers turned to Gomez as the centerpiece, hoping he, along with newly acquired Markus Naslund would find success where Gomez and Jagr could not. Despite the best of intentions, the only good the Rangers got out of Gomez that season was the fact that he was expendable due to the emergence of players such as Ryan Callahan. With his point totals dropping from 70 to 58, the always-in-motion Rangers dispatched Gomez to Montreal, preferring to begin a new experiment in the form of Marian Gaborik.
Goals: 16 (GPG: 0.21)
Assists: 42 (APG: 0.55)
Points: 58 (PPG: 0.75)
PIM: 60
+/-: -2
Totals with Rangers: 150 games played
Goals: 32 (GPG: 0.20)
Assists: 96 (APG: 0.64)
Points: 128 (PPG: 0.85)
PIM: 96
+/-: +1
Playoff Totals with Rangers: 17 games played
Goals: 6 (GPG: 0.35)
Assists: 10 (APG: 0.59)
Points: 16 (PPG: 0.94)
PIM: 12
+/-: N/A
2009/10: 78 games played for the Montreal Canadiens
Canadiens Record: 39-33-10(4th in Northeast, 8th in EC)
Playoff Result: Lost 4 games to 1 in Round 3 to Flyers
Regular Linemates: Gionta and Pouliot(Cammalleri)
Telling Tale..: Reunited with Gionta, Gomez was rather consistent in a low-scoring Canadiens lineup. Though more was expected of him, the short-comings of Benoit Pouliot and injuries to Gionta and Cammalleri kept Gomez from running his totals even higher. In truth, coupled with his strong playoff performance(though still overpayed), Montreal got an excellent year out of the Alaska native.
Goals: 12 (GPG: 0.15)
Assists: 47 (APG: 0.60)
Points: 59 (PPG: 0.76)
PIM: 60
+/-: +1
2010/11: 80 games played for the Montreal Canadiens
Canadiens Record: 44-30-8(2nd in Northeast, 6th in EC)
Playoff Result: Lost 4 games to 3 in Round 1 to Bruins
Regular Linemates: Gionta and Pacioretty(Darche/Moen/Cammalleri)
Telling Tale..: Another "year after" for Gomez, but this time an all-time low. The drop from 59 points to 38 was disastrous in comparison to his tepid drops in New Jersey(84 to 60 points) and New York(70 to 58 points) and, though injuries do always provide a way, there was no doubt in anyone's mind that much, much more was expected out of Gomez. Truly an aberration in comparison to every other year of his career, this was the very first time in his career where his mental focus and preparation failed his talents. In essence, humiliated.
Goals: 7 (GPG: 0.09)
Assists: 31 (APG: 0.39)
Points: 38 (PPG: 0.48)
PIM: 48
+/-: -15
Totals with Habs: 158 games played
Goals: 19 (GPG: 0.12)
Assists: 89 (APG: 0.56)
Points: 84 (PPG: 0.61)
PIM: 108
+/-: -14
Playoff Totals with Canadiens: 26 games played
Goals: 2 (GPG: 0.08)
Assists: 16 (APG: 0.62)
Points: 18 (PPG: 0.69)
PIM: 27
+/-: N/A
The Error in our Judgement
When it comes down to it, and you review the manner in which Scott Gomez' totals have fluctuated since the lockout, it really whittles down to finding his "happy spot."
Clearly, it seems that every time he is given a fresh start he is motivated to seize the opportunity.
Once a comfortable routine is found, gone is his extra gear that makes him an "X" factor.
In the defense of everyone who was watched Scott Gomez skate the puck up the ice, his stride and puck control are visually alluring, yet it really boils down to one season in which Gomez truly fooled the world into believing he could achieve more than he ever thought possible.
2005-06
In 2005-06, Scott Gomez helped Brian Gionta light NHL goaltenders on fire, racking up 51 assists as Gionta scored 48 times.
It wasn't his most productive season as a setup man, nor was it his most successful season with the Devils as they were ousted in the second round of the playoffs. What was most astounding was the fact that he scored 33 goals on 244 shots.
Although Gomez racked up 84 points in his second-to-last season with the Devils, that wasn't the surprising part.
The biggest shock, and perhaps the greatest deception of all, was the fact that Gomez scored 33 goals in 82 games, hitting the back of the net at a career high rate of 13.5%.
Indeed, the 13.5% shooting accuracy was aberration on Gomez' record as never before, or since, has Scott broken a shooting percentage of 10%.
Due to this one season alone, Gomez forever threw off expectations of what type of output he could truly provide and, though he did manage to achieve half of his career-high total of 33 on a regular basis(2 straight 16 goal seasons in New York), the 2005-06 season will forever remain the one where Gomez irrevocably skewed his value in his favor.
Thanks to this inflated perception of what his potential could be, GM's have since been waiting for that gem of a season where Gomez will provide solid and tremendous all around production.
To give you a peek into how much of a deviation the 2005-06 season was, here are Gomez' career shooting percentage totals:
'99/00: 204 shots/9.3%
'00/01: 155 shots/9.0%
'01/02: 156 shots/6.4%
'02/03: 205 shots/6.3%
'03/04: 189 shots/7.4%
'05/06: 244 shots/13.5%(33 goals)
'06/07: 248 shots/5.2%
'07/08: 242 shots/6.6%
'08/09: 271 shots/5.9%
'09/10: 180 shots/6.7%
'10/11: 157 shots/4.7%
Tempered Expectations, Gomez Still Key To Habs Success
In the end, the reality surrounding Gomez and what fans and critics alike should expect from him during the upcoming season is something in the neighborhood of one of those "bounce-back" years he likes to have.
Though still in Montreal(despite numerous pleas to move him), Gomez will technically get one those "fresh starts" he seems to love so much as this next season will undoubtedly be his make-or-break year in a Montreal Canadiens uniform.
Hitting an all-time low in terms of production in every category, Gomez clearly lost his way last season. Lack of focus, not in shape, whatever the case was, the player that first arrived in Montreal was no longer the same.
Given the giant monkey already on his back in the form of his massive salary, adding on a career-worst year was definitely not the way for Gomez to prove his worth.
That said, the door for redemption is now wide open as there is clearly nowhere to go but up. And any increased production over last year's totals will be a good start, though not until(and if) he approaches point-per-game production will he ever truly be forgiven.
The best thing to do when reviewing the career of Scott Gomez is to realize that the only thing that has never truly "fallen off" in terms of his talents are his puck possession and passing skills.
So while Gomez burns off the calories with Montreal Canadiens trainers in Alaska in preparation of his shot at redemption, fans must come to terms with the type of player Gomez can truly be.
Do not expect Gomez to light the lamp. Do not expect him to be game-breaker who gets the game winner. Rather, expect him to be the one who gets the puck from his teammates in the final seconds of the game, the guy who sets up that winner.
Those are his realistic abilities. That is the essence of who Scott Gomez is as a hockey player.
Productive Possibilities
So, while you've been warned in regards to what Scott Gomez can truly do for this team, remember that he is a confidence based player.
When up, Gomez is a leader and a dynamic force on the ice.
Tie into that a player who is in peak physical form(as appears to be his intentions for the upcoming season) and within those lowered expectations may lie the off-chance of a surprise or two.
Let's not joke around in noting that the one true solution in how Gomez can even live up to his value lies in his scoring ability.
It's fleeting and not all that timely, but it is there. Confidence plays the biggest role in whether or not he can produce more goals, but the potential is there.
Though not unreasonable, Gomez hitting 20 goals could possibly be the best thing that could happen to the Canadiens this season. (Point being, if his production is up - the Habs will be better.)
And, regardless of if he does or does not, the evidence still points to him as a focal element who will determine whether or not the Montreal Canadiens will succeed or fail.
His responsibility to the team in the new season is to be a better player.
If he can make his teammates better and not be a vacuum of failure when out on the ice, the Habs will be that much better than last season. Throw in more talent and reinforcements via the presence of Erik Cole and a healthy Max Pacioretty and #11 just might find the confidence he needs to make his team succeed.
Though I could go on and on, delving deeper into the layers of what makes Scott Gomez a good or bad player, the truth is we all know what the good Gomez and the bad Gomez look like.
Fingers crossed, but it looks like history says 2011-12 just might be one of those "good Gomez" years...
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