Montreal Canadiens 2011-12 Salary and Lineup Projection
Before inspecting and evaluating the lineup chart below, I highly suggest you read through my take on
the Montreal Canadiens 2011-12 Roster Options in which I provide a broad lay of the land in regard to the Habs options this upcoming summer.
With approximately $25.3 Million available to Pierre Gauthier, not taking into account any possible increase to the cap, the Canadiens should have no problem building up the club this summer.
The team has exclusive negotiation rights with 18 players(9 UFA, 9 RFA) who are up for new contracts heading into next season. With that many players to choose from, all before the free agent market opens on July 1st, Montreal should manage to put together a very competitive lineup, with possible room to add those key impact players they have long been missing.
Here is how I see the Canadiens lineup shaking out before free agency opens:
The above roster chart highlights only the players I feel are locks to return next season.
Instead of detailing each player, their role and the ramifications of their current or projected salaries, I will provide an overview of my thoughts on the chosen roster and will provide further detail in individual blogs on each line and each defensive pairing over the next week.
In the meantime, here's an overview of how I came to my selections.
As you will notice, I have excluded numerous UFA’s and RFA’s as I do not feel the team will have room for most of them.
That said, that shouldn’t rule out the return of a few possible UFA’s or RFA’s.
The most prominent ones I have left off the list are UFA’s James Wisniewski, Roman Hamrlik, Brent Sopel and RFA Benoit Pouliot.
Hamrlik, Sopel as well as Mara and Picard are all very unlikely to return next season. The primary reason for this being the Habs are expecting healthy returns from Andrei Markov and Josh Gorges next season, while the secondary reason is the recent signings of Alexei Yemelin and Rafael Diaz, not to mention the highly probable returns of both Yannick Weber and Hal Gill.
The plethora of defensemen up for new deals, coupled with the two already spoken for spots on the blue line occupied by Jaroslav Spacek and PK Subban will make it difficult to bring any of those players back.
In the case of James Wisniewski, it’s hard to think that Montreal won’t want to resign him. He’s indicated he would like to return and has proven to have the heart and talent of warrior, certainly worthy of wearing a Habs jersey. But cash will prove to be a problem.
Wiz will be worth a fair chunk of change and is now in the prime of his career, making him the perfect candidate for a long-term deal. And with a very beige looking free agent market this summer, chances are that he’ll have no problem pricing himself out of the Canadiens range.
That said, loyalty, happiness and a willingness to make things work can always change how things play out for Wisniewski and the Canadiens, but with so many blue liners eating up budget, there just might not be enough left for Wiz(I will go into much more detail on this in the defensive pairing blogs).
As for the forwards, although Andrei Kostitsyn appeared destined to leave Montreal no matter what following this season, it might well stand to reason that his chemistry with Lars Eller and the Canadiens ability to qualify him for another year at $3.25 Million will urge management to stick it out for another season with #46. His talent has always exceeded his abilities, but if he’s willing to return in a 3rd line role alongside Eller, with the possibility of playing his way back into his old place alongside Plekanec and Cammalleri, it just might be all the reason to take that chance.
As for the rest of the forwards, it seems that it will be a heated competition to fill out the bottom six.
All signs point that Jeff Halpern, who was a last minute signing prior to training camp, will not be back next season while Mathieu Darche, who I have left off the projected roster, still stands an excellent chance of returning as the team’s 13th forward.
Also uncertain to return are RFA’s Benoit Pouliot and Tom Pyatt. Pouliot played his way right out of the lineup while Pyatt, who is the opposite of Pouliot(all heart, no hands), struggles to help in any other capacity then defensively. That said, Pyatt still has much more value to the Habs than Pouliot and so he, like Darche, might be the ideal candidate to split time as the 12th/13th forward.
The only guaranteed return on offense, in my opinion, is that of Max Pacioretty. Leading up to his horrendous injury, Pacioretty was proving to be every bit of the first rounder he was drafted to be and was blossoming into the Habs long-sought after power forward. The Chara hit needlessly set him back, of that there is no doubt, but it’s safe to say there was no other young forward that impressed management as much as Pacioretty did this past season.
Outside of the notes on the forwards and defense, you'll notice there are three vacancies on the projected roster.
Taking into account all of the estimated salary projections, and current players who will return to fill those roles, it appears as though, logically, management will seek to keep cash and certain roster spots available into free agency.
Truthfully, the Habs are desperate for someone to match Plekanec and Cammalleri in the way that Pacioretty stabilized the duo of Gomez and Gionta.
Also, there will be the need for a veteran leader in the bottom six(a replacement for Halpern), unless they want to take a chance on younger, developing players, and the role of backup netminder(Auld was great, but there could be other options).
In the end, I calculated that if all the players listed above returned for next season, the Canadiens could get away with spending around the estimated total of $53.710M listed above(not including buyouts or bonuses, which will at minimum take up $568k of team budget).
I will go into far more detail on my contract projections and reasons why certain players should or should not return in the next few days, but if Gauthier can get this lineup signed for the approximate amount I have come to, there’s no reason to think the Canadiens won’t have room to upgrade(ie. room to play around on the open market).
I foresee management seeking to have at least a $2-3 million dollar cushion heading into next season, leaving them only $3-or-so million to play with this summer. Of course, that doesn’t include the cap rising by a couple million or more, which would then mean quite a bit more room to maneuver for Habs GM Pierre Gauthier to make something positive happen.
In the end, it’s really up to management to weed through all of the UFA’s and RFA’s and to determine who they feel truly merits coming back next season.
I feel that there is room for about half of the players up for contracts, who do you think should return next season?
Check back tomorrow for the first set of detailed blogs on forward line combinations(Line 1).
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