Breaking Down Habs Draft Needs
Pardon me as I skip on a boring Trade Deadline Day breakdown for you and instead to all of our attention to the most exciting and interesting question in Habs land, what does this team need at the draft and who should they pursue?
Taking a quick look back at the 2011 draft, here is an overview of the draft odds heading into last summer's draft, followed by the actual order and picks:
2011 Draft Odds:
#1) Edmonton Oilers - 48.2% - 62 points
#2) Colorado Avalanche -18.8% - 68 points
#3) Florida Panthers - 14.2% - 72 points
#4) New York Islanders - 10.7% - 73 points
#5) Ottawa Senators - 8.1% - 74 points
2011 Draft Order:
#1) Edmonton Oilers - C - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
#2) Colorado Avalanche - W - Gabriel Landeskog
#3) Florida Panthers - C - Jonathan Huberdeau
#4)**New Jersey Devils - D - Adam Larsson
#5) New York Islanders - C - Ryan Strome
#6) Ottawa Senators - C - Mike Zibanejad
Taking into account that no team can move up more than 4 spots in the draft lottery while falling no more than one spot in the rankings, it's amazing to note that the Devils were as fortunate as they were in vaulting to the 4th overall pick and getting to select Adam Larsson.
Other than that surprise jump, the draft order played out much as it was expected to.
Digesting last year's draft, and the fact that 4 of the top 6 picks were centermen, something that should certainly catch the eye of Montreal Canadiens fans, we fast-forward to this season, the current standings and the high probability that Montreal will be using a top 5 pick this summer.
Current Standings
#30) Columbus Blue Jackets - 43 points in 63 games (projected to finish with 56 points)
#29) Edmonton Oilers - 56 points in 62 games (projected to finish with 74 points)
#28) Montreal Canadiens - 58 points in 64 games (projected to finish with 74 points)
#27) New York Islanders - 61 points in 63 games (projected to finish with 79 points)
#26) Carolina Hurricanes - 61 points in 63 games (projected to finish with 79 points)
Based on how things have gone this season, there's clearly no possible way to supplant the Blue Jackets for the 1st overall pick, yet projected to finish tied with the Oilers for the second fewest points in the NHL, the Habs may very well be eyeing the most lucrative pick in franchise history.
Holding back your excitement, before deciding who the Canadiens should draft this summer it's key to evaluate what their pipeline has in store for them in the near future.
While grabbing the best possible player is clearly always the preferred method of operating at the draft, the truth is that with certain positions well stocked, the Canadiens may be better suited to pursuing their true needs to round out what may prove to a be competitive lineup in the next few years.
With that in mind, here's a look at most of Montreal's noteworthy prospects:
Habs Prospect Depth:
Left Wingers:
- Blake Geoffrion
- Marc MacMillan
- Olivier Archambault
- Andrew Conboy
- Philippe Lefebvre
- Robert Slaney
Right Wingers:
- Danny Kristo
- Brendan Gallagher
- Patrick Holland
- Aaron Palushaj
- Alex Avitsin
- Steve Qualier
- Alain Berger
- Ian Schultz
Center:
- Louis Leblanc
- Michael Bournival
- Andreas Enqvist
- Joonas Nattinen
- Daniel Prybl
Defensemen:
- Nathan Bealieu
- Jarred Tinordi
- Brendan Nash
- Morgan Ellis
- Greg Pateryn
- Darren Dietz
- Mac Bennett
Goaltenders:
- No significant depth to mention.
As you can see, Montreal has done a decent job at stocking the wing, center and blue line with some exciting up and coming talent. Given the rosters current exciting youth, there's reason to believe that the Canadiens have room to maneuver with their selection.
Now, though the pipeline has some premium defensemen and a couple of exciting offensive prospects on the wing, the underlying fact is that there are no clear cut #1 centers on their way, nor any help between the pipes.
And while having no noteworthy prospects in nets is concerning, with Carey Price set to tend the fort for the Canadiens for the foreseeable future, there's not necessarily much pressure on them to draft an elite goaltender.
Moving on, considering the potential of a Top 5 pick, let alone a Top 3 pick, what Montreal needs to focus on is tempering the need to draft the best possible player with what the team now needs.
Standout Needs:
You can never have too many quality defensemen. Ask the Predators.
Beyond that, the truth is that Montreal needs a clear-cut #1 centerman.
So, in considering this year's draft, should the Canadiens go all out to make sure they land one of the two centermen in the Top 10, or should they go for even more?
My take is that with 3 picks in the first 2 rounds this year, and 4 in the first 2 rounds of next year's draft, Montreal may want to take advantage of their opportunity this year.
With 5 second round picks in the next two years, would it not be in the Canadiens best interest to consider trading all 3 extra second round picks to assure they land two Top 10 assets in this year's draft?
With Carey Price, Max Pacioretty and PK Subban all under the age of 25, Montreal's "new image" is already in place. Moving forward with this group and insulating them for success is now the next step.
To achieve that, there's no doubt that those 7 picks in the first 2 rounds of the next 2 drafts must be used.
Using them all to draft players would certainly be of benefit to the Canadiens, but it would it not benefit the Habs top 3 players and the team's chances for success.
Adding another pick in this year's Top 10 should be the team's top priority.
Rather than adding a plethora of assets over the next two year's, the Canadiens will have the opportunity to use their high pick and, if they have any forward thinking left in the tank, trade a combination of some of their quality assets and any of those 5 second round picks to land another Top 10 pick.
Adding two elite prospects, likely worthy of making the NHL next season would push the Habs in to a position of power.
Insulating Price, Subban and Pacioretty with another top end defender and elite forward, or even two elite forwards (given the glut of strong young dmen: Gorges, Emelin, Subban, Tinordi, Bealieu, etc...) would allow Montreal to take two strong steps forward in one year, realigning their hopes to be successful with this young core.
Tipping the scales in favor of taking that risk this year is the fact that Montreal will not aim for another high pick next year, they're going right back to shooting for the playoffs.
So, since this chance doesn't come up all that often, coupled with the glut of picks, prospects and increased cap space, this year's draft marks Montreal's strongest opportunity to pull off what would truly be a coup.
The thought of holding out for next year's draft is interesting, though it does nothing to waste another year of Price, Subban and Pacioretty's burgeoning impacts.
Weighing the risk/reward of this idea, here is a rundown of the current Top 10 projected picks for the upcoming 2012 draft.
2012 Draft Rankings: Top 10 Prospects
1. Neil Yakupov (5'11, 189lbs) - W - Sarnia Sting - 37GP/30G/35A/65PTS/26PIM
- Likely up to Columbus as to whether he goes anywhere else, the Habs would never turn down a player of Yakupov's ilk, though - as mentioned above - with quality wingers on the roster and in the pipeline, he doesn't fit the bill of Montreal's top end priorities.
2. Mikhail Grigorenko (6'3, 200lbs) - C - Quebec Remparts - 57GP/37G/41A/78PTS/8PIM
- He's used to playing in Quebec, so playing in Montreal wouldn't be too much of a difference, though as many have made note of, despite being immensely talented, Grigorenko hasn't assured the world he will be a sure thing. Noted to float at times or perform better against weaker clubs, there seems to be a higher risk tagged to choosing Grigorenko. That said, with the Ovechkin/Malkin comparisons flying around and with the reality of Grigorenko fitting the bill, big offensive center with #1 potential, he does project to be of great interest to the Habs. Considering the Jackets may prefer to grab a center over a winger, and that the Oilers are slated to challenge Montreal for potentially landing the #2 pick, it could be interesting to see how it plays out.
- The assessment here is that he's a risky pick, and if Montreal goes after him it would make all the more sense to add security in the form of another Top 10 pick.
3. Ryan Murray (6'1, 201lbs) - D - Everett Silvertips - 36GP/8G/16A/24PTS/29PIM
- Likely of highest interest to the Oilers, it wouldn't hurt the Habs to snag another elite dman like Murray. If anything, adding another Top 10 pick would allow them to draft another defender. And though I have already mentioned the glut of assets they already possess, if we have learned anything from the past few seasons, it's that you can never have too many elite defensemen.
4. Filip Forsberg (6'2, 181lbs) - LW - Leksand - 39GP/8G/7A/15PTS/33PIM
- A very exciting prospect, yet not a center. Either way, Forsberg is big, already plays with men (and holds his own) and has elite offensive abilities. Responsible for a high end forward, the Canadiens wouldn't hurt themselves by landing the big Swede, though it wouldn't directly address that need for a #1 centerman.
5. Matt Dumba (6'0, 183 lbs) - D - Red Deer Rebels - 59GP/17G/28A/45PTS/57PIM
- A mix of aggressive play and offensive skill, Dumba is as enticing as Murray is in terms of stocking the cupboard on D. Hard to gauge how much of a difference it would make landing any of the defenders projected to go in this Top 10, Montreal would likely be best served by a Top 5 blue liner than a Top 10.
6. Jacob Trouba (6'2, 196lbs) - D - USA U-18 - 32GP/6G/13A/19PTS/PIM N/A
- Like Dumba, Trouba fits in as an asset most any team could use. Size, presence and a potential to contribute on the scoresheet from time-to-time, it certainly wouldn't hurt to add him to the likes of Beaulieu and Tinordi.
7. Alex Galchenyuk (6'1, 198lbs) - C - Sarnia Sting - 0GP/0G/0A/0PTS/0PIM (2010-11 Totals: 68GP/31G/52A/83PTS/52PIM)
- The most intriguing and exciting prospect out there, Galchenyuk is a gifted offensive center, but has missed the entire year due to ACL surgery. A teammate of Yakupov's, and someone he looks up to, Galchenyuk's status projected 7th overall pick in this year's draft tells us that he's as talented as they come. He has size, and expectations are he will maintain his speed when he returns, so while there's a lot of excitement around the other forwards in this Top 10, he is the most intriguing.
- Health is the biggest concern here, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Habs watch Galchenyuk's return with the Sting very closely.
8. Morgan Rielly (6'0, 190lbs) - D - Moose Jaw Warriors - 18GP/3G/15A/18PTS/2PIM
- Regarded as the top offensive prospect among Top 10 blue liners, Morgan Rielly would bring more punch from the blue line on offense, though with so many offensively oriented blue liners in Montreal's system, you have to wonder if insulating players like Emelin and Tinordi, bigger more physical defenders, won't be more interesting?
9. Griffin Reinhart (6'4, 207lbs) - D - Edmonton Oil Kings - 49GP/12G/19A/31PTS/32PIM
- Reinhart fits the bill of a big, bruising dman that would add to Emelin and Tinordi. Size is not an issue and while not bereft of offensive abilities, his focus is clearly on being a presence in his own end.
10. Radek Faksa (6'3, 202lbs) - C - Kitchener Rangers - 53GP/23G/32A/55PTS/39PIM
- An exciting player with size and clear offensive ability, Faksa could prove to be a real steal. Although he is projected to go at the tail end of the Top 10, he fits everything the Canadiens need in their #1 centerman. Though the Habs are staring at a Top 5 pick, if they could land another Top 10 pick, there'd be no reason not consider adding him.
Summary
Playing their cards the right way, the option exists that the Montreal Canadiens could land another Top 10 pick this year, in turn giving themselves the chance to have two elite rookies crack the team next year.
It's what all fans want to see and if done properly, the additions would be of greatest benefit to the young core that represents Montreal's future hope.
To be sure, it's going to be a long March in Montreal, but with assets and options aplenty sitting before them this summer, the Montreal Canadiens have an extraordinary opportunity to turn things around faster than most think.
Finally, the lynch-pin or crux of this situation lies in who gets to make those calls moving forward.
Though I have presented an exciting and quite possible scenario, the decisions regarding who makes these decisions still have to be made.
And while that is a debate unto itself, the real hope should be that whoever winds up in the Habs GM chair this June feels the same way about turning this glut of draft picks into assets that the team can use as soon as next season.
What are your thoughts?
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