Habs Five on Five Play Must Improve
As EE pointed out yesterday,
the Habs power play should be a force to reckon with next season, yet in addressing the fact that the additions of Cole, Pacioretty and Markov will open space, essentially boosting what was already a relatively successful unit, the truth is that the most important area of concern for the Montreal Canadiens is even strength scoring.
Montreal's five on five prowess, or, more specifically, lack therof, has meted out the success of their special teams over the last few seasons, basically compromising the Canadiens ability to overpower any opponents.
Take a look:
2008-09:
While a terrible year by any fans standards, the Canadiens still managed to finish with the 11th best penalty kill in the NHL(82.4%), and 13th best power play(19.2%). Again, not great, but coupled with their rough play at even strength(0.96), barely good enough for 17th best in the league, and the Habs were simply shooting themselves in the foot thanks to their poor play five on five.
In contrast to Montreal's average numbers that season, the Bruins finished 1st in five on five play, scoring an average of 1.42 goals more for than against, nearly half a goal more than the Canadiens per game.
In regards to the Habs special teams of '08-09, the Wings and Caps shared the best power play in the league, clicking at 25.2%, a full 6.0% better than Montreal, while the Rangers and Wild stifled opposition on the penalty kill, finishing 1-2 with success rates of 87.8% and 87.6%, respectively, 5.0% better than Montreal.
While no summary is needed for how rough the Centennial season was, the numbers speak for themselves in regards to why it finished the way it did.
2009-10
With the revamped roster came revamped hopes for the Canadiens. The newcomers yielded menacingly positive results on the power play, finishing second only the Capitals with a success rate of 21.8%. On the flip side, the Canadiens penalty kill improved upon itself, finishing with a success rate of 83.0%, jumping from 13th in '08-09 to 12th in '09-10. Though a small jump, a move up is always a success.
Success aside, we come to the true nature of Montreal's struggles in 2009-10, for while they continued to get better on special teams, the same could not be said for their play at even-strength.
In stark contrast to special teams, the Habs finished 22nd overall in five on five play. Dropping from 0.96(f/a) in '08-09 to 0.90(f/a) in '09-10 held the Canadiens back during the regular season.
Ironically, after the rough regular season and the return of healthy bodies, the Canadiens stunned in the playoffs, upsetting rivals all the way to the Conference Finals. Even then, we know all too well that the Canadiens demise against the Flyers in the ECF came down to five on five play, so while the success of the playoffs was exciting, the team's regular season inability to dominate at even strength eventually proved to be the demise of their Cinderella story.
2010-11
Following up on the success of their long playoff run, the Canadiens had expectations to meet and, although injuries once again threw a wrench in the overall plans, strides were made as Montreal played a well-rounded game for the first time under Jacques Martin.
Though the power play units success dropped, dipping from a success rate of 21.8% to 19.7%, it was still good enough for a 7th place finish. And it was an impressive seventh place finish as the Habs lost Markov for the full season and were forced to rely on rookie stud, PK Subban, until the trade for Wisniewski.
But hard work paid off for the Canadiens last season as the penalty kill continued to improve. With another rise in the success rate, this time jumping from 83.0% to 84.4%, the Habs cracked the top ten, mirroring their finish on the power play in 7th place.
Though impressive to have both special team units in the top ten, the true revelation was in the Canadiens ability to compete five on five.
For the first time in three seasons, last year, Montreal actually managed to break even, if not do slightly better versus their opposition at even strength. Finishing with 1.01(f/a) in five on five play, the Habs placed 16th overall in the league. Though not great in comparison to the two Cup Finalists, who finished 1-2(Boston @ 1.40(f/a) and Vancouver @ 1.32(f/a)), the improvement was reflected in their consistent level of competition throughout the course of 2010-11. Despite major injuries, Montreal hung in there better than in any of the two seasons prior and, although their end to the season came early and was quite harsh, there was no denying the improvements.
What History Can Teach Us
While the strengths of each Cup winning team vary from year to year, reading between the lines we learn that, no matter what their forte, the best teams are always the most well-rounded.
Keeping that in mind, and charting the Canadiens overall progress over the last three seasons, it becomes clearer that they are making plenty of headway.
The penalty kill has improved year after year while the power play is competent when injured, it is very strong when healthy. Yet, most importantly of all, it is the Canadiens ability to improve their dominance at even strength that will dictate how much success they will enjoy this season.
To that extent, and as Eric pointed out, the return of Markov makes every area of the team's game better while a healthy Max Pacioretty and the addition of Erik Cole open up time and space the more skilled players require to succeed. These factors all point to the power play improving or staying status quo, though perhaps more importantly, they point to the Canadiens having a much stronger offensive presence five on five.
Stronger because of the size of the two power forwards, but also stronger because of the combined abilities of the top six together(seven, if you include Kostitsyn).
This season, instead of relying on role players such as Darche or Moen, or placing too much hope on the shoulders of Andrei Kostitsyn, the team will have the ability to play players in the positions they were meant to be played in.
While the lineup is far from perfect, it's composition is more in line with that of a team capable of playing competitive, if not dominant hockey, this upcoming season.
Of course, with this team's luck they will be smart to keep the injury bug in mind, but that's a bridge these guys hopefully won't have to cross.
The moves that Pierre Gauthier and company have made this past summer addressed some of the team's greatest needs and, although still with money in hand, it's hard not to like the potential this group has.
Again, special teams are key, but for the Montreal Canadiens to cross the threshold from playoff team to true contender, they are going to need to become as dominant five on five as they are on the man advantage.
Top "Six" Career Scoring Breakdown
Before I end the blog, I felt that I should post the career scoring patterns of the Canadiens top "six" forwards;
Gionta: 209 career goals, 137 even strength goals(65.6%), 65 power play goals(31.1%), 7 short handed goals(3.3%).
Cole: 184 career goals, 133 even strength goals(72.3%), 43 power play goals(23.4%), 8 short handed goals(4.3%).
Cammalleri: 177 career goals, 102 even strength goals(57.6%), 75 power play goals(42.4%,), 0 shorthanded goals(0%).
Gomez: 167 career goals, 120 even strength goals(72%), 46 power play goals(27.5%), 1 short handed goal(0.5%).
Plekanec: 125 career goals, 86 even strength goals(68.8%), 30 power play goals(24%), 9 short handed goals(7.2%).
Kostitsyn: 87 career goals, 58 even strength goals(66.67%), 29 power play goals(33.33%), 0 short handed goals(0%).
Pacioretty: 20 career goals, 12 even strength goals(60%), 8 power play goals(40%), 0 short handed goals(0%).
And, just for fun;
Markov: 81 career goals, 38 even strength goals(46.9%), 41 power play goals(50.6%), 2 short handed goals(2.5%).
So long as this group stays healthy, and gets help from the players who will now be playing in their appropriate and designated roles, the Canadiens should be fine when it comes to offense in 2011-12.
www.twitter.com/StevenHindle
[email protected]
Montreal Canadiens Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»