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The Danger of Finishing Your Check + What's Going on with Vegas Power Play?

January 17, 2018, 8:03 PM ET [2 Comments]
Sheng Peng
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On the heels of Deryk Engelland's extension, Vegas announced Jon Merrill's two-year, $2.75 million dollar extension yesterday. Merrill's cap hit will be 1.375 million.

The 6'3" blueliner, who's currently out with a lower body injury, has dressed for just 14 contests this season. For the most part, he's been a healthy scratch, though he did appear in every tilt of the team's recent eight-game winning streak.

He's been solid when called upon, making smart pinches and flashing a long stick. The 25-year-old is a well-rounded depth defender who might be scratching the surface of the potential which once made him a New Jersey 2010 second-round draft pick.

He told Jesse Granger of The Las Vegas Sun, "I think with it being my fifth year in the league, I’m developing confidence and believing in myself. This team breeds confidence."

The Knights have five defensemen -- Merrill, Engelland, Nate Schmidt, Brayden McNabb, and Brad Hunt -- signed to a combined $8.25 million dollar cap hit next year. That's five blueliners for less than the cost of P.K. Subban's league-leading $9 million. Vegas is also one of only two teams -- Boston is the other -- with less than $10 million currently earmarked for its backend in 2018-19. The Bruins have $9,455,834 million committed to four defenders (Torey Krug, Kevan Miller, Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo).

Assuming George McPhee locks up RFAs Colin Miller and Shea Theodore, which looks like a near-certainty, the Golden Knights blueline seems mostly set next season for their -- wait for it -- Stanley Cup defense.

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Two weeks ago, Marc Andre-Fleury made 28 saves to shut out the Predators in Las Vegas. Last night, Juuse Saros returned the favor in Nashville, blanking the Golden Knights 1-0 with 43 stops.



Winning Play

Jonathan Marchessault had 10 shots on goal, perhaps none better than this opportunity, but Saros had his number.

View post on imgur.com


Marchessault makes an aggressive Matt Irwin look bad, eludes Kyle Turris, and after dumping the puck off to Reilly Smith, blows by Craig Smith who's playing defense. But...



Pluses

We all knew that Vegas was going to bring a back-to-the-basics "shot mentality" to their power play, and they didn't disappoint.



In all, the Golden Knights rang up 15 shots on four man advantage attempts, but it was all for naught. They've scored just one power play goal in the last 10 games. Interestingly, special teams has remained a net positive, as they've given up nothing on the kill in this stretch.

Should we be concerned with the power play? Let's look at recent 5v4 underlying stats to compare:

View post on imgur.com


In fact, the Knights have been generating more 5v4 shots and chances recently, which is reflected by the higher Expected Goals/60. So where are the goals?

View post on imgur.com


It appears as if there's some market correction going on. A Vegas power play which was overperforming its Expected Goals For through mid-December is now underperforming.

If they keep piling on the chances, the goals should come. The bigger problem is that the power play simply isn't great, as the overall talent and underlying stats seem to suggest. They just don't get enough chances. It's an area that George McPhee might look to improve at the Deadline.

Minuses

It was a hard-hitting game, to say the least.





Tomas Nosek was sent back to Las Vegas for further examination. Fortunately, Ryan Johansen was able to return to practice today. There will be no discipline from the league for either Alexei Emelin or William Carrier.

Tomas Hyka, Stefan Matteau, or Brandon Pirri (if healthy) would be candidates for a call-up if Nosek is placed on injured reserve. When Carrier went down in late November, Matteau replaced him; stylistically, he's most similar to Nosek too.

On the other hand, Hyka could potentially bring an element of speed from the rear to the power play breakout.

As for the game itself, David Perron ended up a step behind Kevin Fiala on the game-winning goal, but it wasn't for lack of effort. He just started too far behind:



Here's the full play:

View post on imgur.com


Actually, my only criticism is a larger one of the sport. You always hear finish your check, finish your check. But what's the merit of finishing your check if you leave yourself in poor defensive position?

Here's an example from a Kings game earlier this year:



It's food for thought. The Golden Knights travel to Tampa Bay to take on the league-leading Lightning tomorrow night.

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