The Pittsburgh Penguins are on a three-game losing streak and are seven points back of a playoff spot. Things aren’t looking great for the prospects of the playoffs and decisions are going to have to be made with the roster one way or the other.
The biggest looming decision is the Jake Guentzel one. He remains unsigned and with the season slipping away it is looking more and more like he will be moving on from the only team he’s played for in the NHL. In a plot twist that would be laughed out of the writer’s room Guentzel was hurt last night and did not return to the game. With the trade deadline looming we could be looking at a worst-case scenario for the team where Guentzel is out long term (looks like left wrist), he’s unsigned, and untradeable. Guentzel re-signing would be the only positive outcome from this and while it is my preferred option there are valid arguments to moving on from him, but via trade which might not be an option at this point, we’ll see.
Kyle Dubas turned bad Ron Hextall contracts into Erik Karlsson. His goaltending bets paid off this year and were the only reason the Penguins ship wasn’t taking on more water than it has. These were some significant roster moves that put the team in a better position to succeed. Unfortunately, everything else has been a whiff. He had the hard to get pieces and fumbled the depth like his predecessors did. I would be looking to move on from anybody who makes over league minimum.
Ryan Graves has been a disaster and I can’t imagine anybody would want to take on that contract, but it should be a point of emphasis to shed. You have to at least try. He’s so not the kind of player they need to be paying a premium on. This move undid the other good Dubas did because it crushed roster flexibility in a high risk low reward contract.
Reilly Smith is probably still a decent player, but it is not likely to be in Pittsburgh for whatever reason. He has one more year left on his deal and I think there’s a deal to be had to move him. I would attempt to make a hockey trade here.
Rickard Rakell has had a worst case scenario season. Not sure there’s a path to moving him without taking a potentially worse contract back. Probably a situation where you hold your cards and hope for a better result next year. You likely will get a better result.
Noel Acciari has miserable underlying numbers and makes 2M. Can’t have that. Cap space is at a premium and you can’t waste it on players who don’t move the needle at all. Matt Nieto is at 900k but you can find another player at that price point who can contribute more. Neither player is part of the solution.
Lars Eller hasn’t been bad. I don’t think you have to actively shop him, but he’s a player you could listen to offers on. He’s a 1.39 points per 60 player at 5v5 and that isn’t going to cut it for your third line center. Some of that is his quality of teammate and some of that is on him. At 2.45M I could go either way on him.
Alex Nedeljkovic has been a great 1B this year. He has an expiring contract. I would definitely look to move him to a contender looking for help, or even better a contender who lost their starter to injury, if that happens.
Coaching will have to be evaluated, but that’s an offseason issue at this point. Firing Mike Sullivan isn’t going to give you the 2009 or 2016 bounce where the team flips a switch and gets out of their funk. This roster is not like those rosters.
This team has had flashes of being competitive and playoff worthy. They did not have the consistency because their depth just isn’t good enough and their power play is an abomination. The Athletic has their playoff probability sitting at 49%. It sure doesn’t feel that high at the moment.
It’s time for Kyle Dubas to pick a direction. Standing idle just makes everything worse.
Thanks for reading!
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