The Pittsburgh Penguins are having a little bit of trouble scoring goals as of late. They are also having trouble winning games. They have only won 6 of their last 18 games.
Two of the past three games have seen them shutout on the scoreboard while their win against the New Jersey Devils only had them scoring twice. They have only scored as many as three goals twice in the past eight games.
This isn't a recipe for success and it hasn't been.
So what's the deal. Is it players? Is it coaching? As always it is both.
Here is where I am with Penguins Head Coach Mike Johnston:
1. I love his X's and O's approach to the game. Puck support is huge, especially at the NHL level when you can't just skate it through everybody. Johnston's breakouts have great puck support. I respect his offensive strategy of shot volume as well. These are his strengths.
2. I think he is weak with his personnel decisions. It seems a lot of his choices fly in the face of the type of X's and O's he is trying to execute. Grit guys void of puck skill are like square pegs trying to fit into a round hole out there. He continues to double down with these types and it makes little sense.
An NHL coach (or any coach really) has to take the role of a master chef. Not only is it important to concoct the best recipes, but it is equally important to find and use high quality ingredients. You may have a blue print for the best dish on earth, but if you are bargain shopping at the local gas station for produce the dish is going to suck no matter what.
Some people are going to point to Sid being the problem but the Penguins have all sorts of issues at forward right now. Sid could produce a little more but blaming your best players is something a lazy assessor would do. Especially when talking about one of the most consistent players of his generation.
This is hockey not the NBA. We can't just expect Sid to "take a game over" on a nightly basis and lob up a 55 point effort like Kobe Bryant. You need at least 3 playable lines in the NHL to expect success in the regular season (four in the playoffs).
The Penguins are a one line team right now. Don't think that other teams aren't aware of this. It isn't the toughest thing in the world to focus on and shutdown a one line team.
Why are they a one line team?
Brandon Sutter is playing like a replacement level player, he is cemented in as the Penguins third line center and the number one option to play top six center minutes if somebody is out. His play is beyond unacceptable. The Penguins brass has hitched their wagon to Sutter as being a major part of how they want to balance out their forward depth. This may prove as a fatal decision.
Remember in the offseason when I said multiple times to never fall in love with average? Well that goes double for falling in love with below average.
Sutter is deserving of a healthy scratch as much as anybody on the team. Who would play in his spot? Easy, somebody who has produced better possession numbers and offense despite playing in Edmonton during the same sample size:
Nick Spaling continues to play top six minutes, even his most ardent supporters know this isn't a good idea.
Zach Sill, Craig Adams, and Maxim Lapierre, should never be counted on for offense. And that is a problem because in the playoffs you need there to be some potential of offense from the fourth line. The fallacy here is that people believe these types of players will grind a team down, in reality they will just give the opposition more zone time while being annoying in-between whistles. Be annoying and productive during game action. The Penguins moved on from Tanner Glass, Joe Vitale, and Deryk Engelland for a reason.
Beau Bennett was benched and then he was promptly placed back on the left wing (not his strong side) with Lapierre.
"Why you not score more points Beau?!" At least put Arcobello in the middle so he has a fighting chance to produce. Beau is a distributor. Distributing the puck to bottom six types like Lapierre isn't going to do anything.
There is a real easy way to get Beau Bennett back on the right side where he prefers and plays better. Drop Kunitz off of the top line and put Hornqvist there. Then you can have a line with Kunitz and Bennett both on their proper wings. Perron prefers the left side anyways. This reminds me of the Bylsma treatment of Iginla in that the coach refuses to place players in the best spots for success. Don't over think this stuff, ask Pete Carroll.
OK, that was the critical portion of today's blog.
There is help is on the way with Evgeni Malkin potentially returning on Wednesday and Blake Comeau about a week away from full practice. This is obviously going to help out.
Assuming Geno is a go against Edmonton this is the lineup that would maximize skill and play into the puck support system that Mike Johnston runs:
39-87-72
14-71-19
13-26-23
40-16-27
47-58
51-7
4-41
You still only have 3 somewhat competent lines but it is better than only one and at least you have two legitimate scoring lines.
Throw Brandon Sutter a wakeup call without scratching him. If he is supposedly as good as his reputation he won't sink in a sheltered fourth line role for a small sample size.
Shelter that bottom pairing and allow Derrick Pouliot to continue to learn on the job. He is the Penguins X-factor on defense much like how Beau Bennett is the X-factor for the Penguins at forward.
A bad turnover against Nashville doesn't mean Simon Despres isn't a top four defenseman. He is. Leave him in the big boy role.
The trade deadline is a month away now. My assessment is that the Penguins need a Sean Bergenheim/Daniel Winnik type desperately if they want to navigate through the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Even adding Comeau to the lineup doesn't make them as strong as they'll need to be.
The East is better than I think most people give it credit for. The Islanders, Rangers, Lightning, and Red Wings are four solid teams.
The Islanders are the best possession team in hockey.
The Rangers have the Penguins number and still have Lundqvist.
The Lighting are another possession darling and have depth throughout the lineup.
Lastly, Detroit is an Andrej Sekera trade away from going into beast mode on the possession front, they are inching closer to their 2007-2009 level of play and that isn't good news for anybody.
A completely healthy Penguins team still has an uphill battle to the Stanley Cup. The next month should be very interesting.
****
People rip on Gary Bettman for presenting the Stanley Cup but the optics of him doing that are 1,000,000,000x better than having Roger Goodell anywhere near a public presentation right now. Gary ain't so bad when you look at some of the others.
Thanks for reading!
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