Tomorrow night the Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks will kick off the 2016 Stanley Cup Final.
The two teams have some similarities and they also have some minor differences. They both have star power, they both have players that can skate, they both have skill throughout the lineup, and they both are more than deserving of representing their conference.
The San Jose Sharks will be trying to complete one hell of a playoff run. If you take the top five possession teams from the last 20 games of the regular season this is what you get:
The Sharks are in there and so are their four opponents during the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Today I'm going to take a look at the two teams by position in order to break things down further. Let's start with the forwards.
Forwards
There is so much to like about both of these groupings. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Joe Pavelski is a nice starting point for each team. Any of those players can change a game on any given shift. They are high end and they are fun.
Joe Pavelski leads the Sharks as well as the NHL in playoff scoring with 13 goals. Phil Kessel has a team high of nine goals for Pittsburgh. Logan Couture leads the NHL in playoff points with 24 while Pavelski is at 22. Phil Kessel is highest on Pittsburgh at 18 which is also the same amount as Joe Thornton.
Both teams have the ability to split up their talent in order to have three highly functioning scoring lines. Pittsburgh does this by splitting Crosby and Malkin and allowing Bonino to play with Kessel and Hagelin. Earlier in the playoffs the Sharks were able to split Thornton, Marleau, and Couture to attempt a similar approach. The Penguins are still using this approach while the Sharks have shifted towards using a top heavy look which includes Thornton and Pavelski together and Couture and Marleau together.
Given that the Sharks have abandoned spreading their top end guys among three lines it will be interesting to see how that impacts the game at even-strength. Will San Jose's bottom six be able to keep pace with any of the Penguins top three lines? They are going to have to with this lineup approach.
Here is a look at each team's offensive prowess at even-strength throughout the year.
Pittsburgh's offensive prowess runs deeper as ten of their forwards produce at least third line caliber offense. Pittsburgh is also one of few teams that can match the upper end skill the Sharks have. I believe that the Penguins have the advantage at the forward position in this series during even-strength action.
As far as the man advantage goes that is definitely in the Sharks column. They have one of the very best power plays in the league. They have movement, they have highly skilled passers, they have guys that aren't afraid to let it rip. This team is excellent at finding their two on one and exploiting it. You can see the difference in the offensive numbers put up by the players when compared to Pittsburgh
Evgeni Malkin is awesome. Crosby is really good. However, the Sharks as a whole have more guys in that upper 3's to 4's range.
Let's shift to the defensemen
Defense
I like the Sharks top end guys a lot better than the Penguins. Kris Letang is certainly in the ballpark with Brent Burns but then it really drops off in favor of San Jose.
As far as offense at even-strength goes Brent Burns 5v5 points per 60 is great at 1.39. Only Erik Karlsson's 1.52 was better. Kris Letang is impressive at 1.11 but even Marc-Edouard Vlasic bests him at 1.21. That 1.21 is the same rate that PK Subban generates 5v5 offense. Vlasic is quietly a very good offensive player.
Brent Burns is currently third overall in playoff scoring with 20 points. Kris Letang has half that with 10 points.
Brian Dumoulin has had a great year. His emergence in being able to play a lot of minutes was integral in getting the Penguins as far as they've gone. I like the quietly effective means by which he goes about his business. It is almost exactly how the guy he is trying to replace did it. That player is Paul Martin and he is on the Sharks. I still think Paul Martin in 2015-16 is still a better version of Paul Martin than Brian Dumoulin is, but Dumoulin is filling that void nicely. Kris Letang and Paul Martin were one of the best defensive pairings in hockey. Now Brent Burns and Paul Martin are one of the best defensive pairings in hockey. I see a correlation there.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic is quietly one of the best players at his position in the entire league. He is worthy of his Team Canada selection. He is the player that turns the tables in favor of San Jose at this position. Olli Maatta is probably the Penguins third best defender and he isn't in Vlasic's league yet (and probably never).
Justin Braun is a nice compliment to the Sharks top four defense grouping.
The Sharks defense isn't without its warts though. Like most teams their bottom pairing leaves a lot to be desired. Roman Polak and Brendon Dillon have been unable to push play this postseason. They only have a CF% of 46.03% when together.
Here are how all the pairings in this series have played to this point in the playoffs
The Middle pairing is the biggest difference here. The Pittsburgh combo of Lovejoy and Maatta hasn't seen a ton of time together because for most of the playoffs Trevor Daley was in the lineup . When Daley was in the lineup he and Lovejoy combined for a CF% of 65.33%. That is a lot to try and replace this late in the year.
Another key for Pittsburgh will be being careful about Ian Cole's usage. He has had a negative impact on his partners in this postseason.
If the Sharks are going to be top heavy with the forward allocation Pittsburgh definitely needs to keep Ian Cole against their two bottom six lines. The task will be a little easier the first two games as the Penguins have the last change.
So with all that said I believe the Sharks have an advantage at the defense position.
Goaltending
Each team has a goaltender that is making the best of their first postseason action as a main starter in the NHL. Martin Jones was Jonathan Quick's successful backup for a couple of years and he was so good that the Kings didn't want him anywhere close to them so they traded him to Boston. The Bruins then flipped Jones back to the Pacific Division and Jones went on to defeat Jonathan Quick and the Kings in the first round.
Matt Murray was thrust into the starting role because of Marc-Andre Fleury's concussion and he has done a good job. His first two series were better than his work in the Eastern Confernce Finals but he did bookend that series with back to back save percentages of .933 and 941.
In the playoffs Martin Jones has an EVSV% of .936. Matt Murray is at .935.
Here is how their full seasons have looked (playoffs included)
I had to use a 10 game rolling average because Matt Murray's sample size just isn't large enough yet.
Goaltending is pretty evenly matched for this series. I don't see a big advantage to either squad. Under normal circumstances I would give the edge to the Penguins for having the better "backup" but the lack of action has clearly impacted Fleury in a negative way as Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals highlighted.
This series will be close. Outside of any potential goaltending meltdowns this series will be decided by the San Jose Sharks defensemen and their ability to shutdown the Penguins forward depth. I believe that this is a pick'em series and strong arguments can be made for either team. I picked Pittsburgh before the playoffs started and I will be sticking with that selection.
****
The San Jose Sharks have come a long way since their inception into the NHL. I remember getting excited in the early 90's when the Penguins would be playing the Sharks because I knew the next morning there would be some awesome Mario Lemieux highlights. I would sit around and watch that 45 second clip as much as four times. Why? Because Mario Lemieux never disappointed
In his 14 game career against the San Jose Sharks he scored 17 goals and had 49 points. That is absurd. In a bit of a funny coincidence Mike Sullivan had a really good look at Mario's carnage.
Evgeni Malkin is not afraid of Sharks.
The fun begins tomorrow night.
Thanks for reading!
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»