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The Philadelphia Flyers did their part in Game 6, the Penguins 2nd round opponent will have gone through a 7 game series. Anytime you can have your potential opponent play in a 7 game series while you sit back and wait, that is an advantage.
Also making the 7 game series more grueling is the fact that Games 6 and 7 are on back to back nights (what the hell is the deal with that?).
Anything can happen in a Game 7 and it will be fun to watch how things play out this evening.
The question I have today is who is a more ideal opponent for the Penguins in Round 2, is it the Rangers? Or is it the Flyers?
Obviously there are some pros and cons to each team, lets go through some of them:
Philadelphia Flyers
Pros
Possession: The Pittsburgh Penguins have been the better team at even strength throughout the 2013-2014 regular season even when you include the 500 man games lost. If Brandon Sutter (skated at today’s practice) and Brian Gibbons are available to start Round 2 the Penguins should have an advantage at even strength play. Owning the puck is the best defense when you play a team who does have some very nice offensive weapons like the Flyers have.
Steve Mason: Mason was lights out in Game 6 vs the Rangers. He has played fairly well since coming back from his concussion injury. However, this is one of the few matchups the Penguins will have where I don’t believe they are flat out losing the goalie matchup. Marc Andre Fleury has a EVSV% of .948% this postseason, that is very good. Steve Mason is at .922%. I believe both goalies are more than capable of having less than ideal moments in big spots. The fact the goalie matchup is close to a push is an advantage for Pittsburgh.
Flyers defense: Flyers defense has some skilled players, but they are also their older players. Kimmo Timonen and Mark Streit are good puck moving guys but they are susceptible to being worn down by physical play. Streit has been great so far in these playoffs and has CF% of 54.5%. Nicklas Grossman is also a positive possession player at 52.7% (Grossman is also out of the playoffs with an ankle injury). However, the other 4 guys (Timonen, MacDonald, Coburn, Schenn) are all below 50%.
The Penguins have only one defenseman under 50% and that is the struggling Rob Scuderi (46.9%). The next lowest Penguin defender is Kris Letang at 53.4%.
Cons
Discipline: This is the big one most Penguins fans are scared of. 2012 is still fresh in everybody’s minds. The Flyers were incredibly successful at making the Penguins become unhinged. There are still a lot of the same players on the Penguins roster that were guilty of being undisciplined. The Penguins have literally no chance at winning if they cannot keep their composure.
The good news is that the Blue Jackets tried their best to get the Penguins off their game and Pittsburgh did a very nice job of staying the course. Brandon Dubinsky was just as annoying as any Flyer will be in the upcoming series. If the Penguins can show off some of that composure from Round 1 this con could in fact be a pro.
Special teams: The Flyers power play is primed to absolutely crush the Penguins penalty kill. I love how the Flyers go about their business on the power play. They are a shoot first power play and are willing to clean up the trash. Wayne Simmonds and Scott Hartnell are the perfect blend of skill and net front presence to make life hell on PK defensemen. Simmonds cleans up the rebounds and Hartnell is so good at sneaking into soft spots in the slot letting go one timers. Claude Giroux is terrific at facilitating all of this controlled chaos.
The Penguins power play is certainly talented enough to score on any penalty kill but the Flyers do a nice job on that end of the special teams as well. I believe that the Flyers have such an advantage on their PP that any kind of success the Penguins have on theirs will be negated. To me this matchup is favorable to the Flyers.
New York Rangers
Pros
Not overly physical: These aren’t your John Tortorella New York Rangers. The Rangers have more of a focus on skating and skill (which is not a bad thing) but they have lost that physical edge that made them a frustrating team to play against. The Penguins don’t like to be hit and if they can play a team where that isn't their forte, then I think that is good news for the Penguins star players. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t view the Rangers as a pushover physically, just not in the mold of how the Columbus Blue Jackets were relentless with pounding bodies.
Henrik Lundqvist:
This looks like it is way out of place and perhaps it is. However, King Henrik for whatever reason never seems to play to his ceiling when playing against the Penguins. Strangely the Penguins always seem to be able to crack the Lundqvist riddle.
Lack of killer instinct: In one of the stranger stats out there when the New York Rangers have a lead in a series they are 0 for their last 12 games in the win column. Weird stuff. If the trend holds true then the Penguins are at a minimum going to be able to play in a winner take all Game 7.
Special teams: The Rangers power play looks like a mess in the Philadelphia series and might be just what the doctor ordered for the flailing Penguins PK. Rangers were a top 3 PK team in the regular season this year but in the playoffs the Flyers have shredded that unit. They have actually been worse than the Penguins on the PK and are currently at 68.4% in the playoffs, not good.
Cons
Possession: The Rangers have quality depth and because of that they are also the better team at even strength. The Rangers are clicking at around 54% possession since January 1st and that is a terrific number. What the Rangers may have lost in the physicality department they have gained in puck skill and speed. The trade for Martin St. Louis gives them another dynamic forward which can help with the goal scoring department. Something that has been a weakness the past few seasons in the playoffs.
The Penguins struggle with their in zone coverage at times and as
Dejan Kovacevic pointed out in his column today the Penguins would be best served by owning the puck as their prime source of defense. With the Rangers being a quality possession team the Penguins might not be able to execute that approach as successfully as they might like.
Henrik Lundqvist: Yep, he is on both sides of the coin. Even though the Penguins may have had success against him in the past, he is still one of the very best goalies in the world. He is certainly capable of playing at a high ceiling at any given time. If he were to catch fire it would really put a dent in the Penguins ability to win the series.
Rangers defense: The Rangers defense corp. is really really good. They have size, they are mobile, and they have puck skill. It is because of these traits that the Rangers are able to control the puck way more often than not.
Ryan McDonagh is an elite defenseman and more than capable of playing up against the Penguins star players. Outside of Zdeno Chara, McDonagh may be the Eastern Conference’s best defenseman.
Thanks for reading!
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