The best second round series on paper begins tonight. The two favorites to win the Eastern Conference will do battle to see who gets the honor of playing in the Eastern Conference Finals.
There is a high likelihood that the winner of this series will represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final. Both of these teams are very good and whoever wins it certainly won't be considered an upset or unexpected.
I had some concerns about the Washington Capitals heading down the stretch. They were not controlling play all that often and a lot of their success was coming from the power play which isn't reliable given the state of officiating in the playoffs. To the Capitals credit they turned things right around and are back to being a decent team at even-strength.
Here is a look at the ebb and flow of the regular season for both teams on the possession front
You can see where Pittsburgh was struggling under Mike Johnston and has gotten progressively better under Mike Sullivan. You can also see that the Capitals finished very strong. I have to think getting John Carlson back in the lineup was a big plus in that improvement towards the end for Washington.
As far as their head to head matchups go since Mike Sullivan was hired as coach the teams have played four games. During those four games the Penguins have held the advantage at even-strength with 190 shot attempts versus 154 for Washington. That is a 55.2% advantage.
As far as special teams go since the Mike Sullivan hire for Pittsburgh not many goals have gone in for either team on the man advantage when they have faced off against one another. Pittsburgh is a brutal 1 for 15 (6%) on the power play while Washington was 2 of 13 (15.3%). Yesterday I wrote about how Alexander Ovechkin continually gets open on the power play and why the Capitals are still great even when you take that lane away. You can find that
here
There are no shortage of great offensive players at even-strength in this series. Here are the forwards from each team who scored at a 3rd line level (>1.50 pts/60) at even-strength this year.
*Hagelin Pittsburgh sample only
A decent amount of players for both teams. Each team has six players who are at 1.75 or higher which is the general cutoff for top six production. Pittsburgh does have 10 players on this list versus Washington's eight and that speaks to the four scoring line approach that Pittsburgh has gone with. Regardless there are players in this series who aren't afraid to do something with the puck on their stick and that makes things a lot more fun as a fan of the sport.
Evgeny Kuznetsov was the third best in the league trailing only rookie sensation Connor McDavid (2.75), and aging sensation Jaromir Jagr (2.73). Sidney Crosby was sixth overall at 2.50.
Braden Holtby was nominated for the Vezina Trophy yesterday which he will probably win. It would be natural to surmise that Washington will have a huge advantage in net given they have the probable Vezina winning goaltender of 2015-16, but Matt Murray is no slouch either.
Braden Holtby has been amazing in his playoff career. In 40 games he has a 5v5 adjusted save percentage of .935. Only four goalies have been better during this sample: Mike Smith (.952), Roberto Luongo (.952), Tuukka Rask (.940), and Craig Anderson (.940). Out of those players Braden Holtby had the largest sample size of 40 games.
Matt Murray's career is in its infancy but don't sleep on the Penguins rookie goaltender. Even though he only has 16 professional games (13 regular, 3 playoffs) to his name he has been spectacular much like Holtby. Murray's 5v5 adjusted save percentage is .942 for his NHL career. In his AHL career Murray has seen 1,961 shots and allowed 125 goals for an all situations save percentage of .936. The kid can flat out play.
Here is a look at the defenders. They are the ones that get the pucks to the forwards. They are the ones who are the backbone in driving play towards the other teams goal. I will use Score-Adjusted Fenwick here and I'll throw in the relative stats as well. The relative stats will help give context on how that player has done compared to his peers when playing. You'll see some ex Penguins on the Washington side of things.
Look at Brooks Orpik go. Much better on his part than he's been in recent years. Matt Niskanen still does a very nice job of driving play. He was an underrated loss for the Penguins.
Pittsburgh has everybody above the 50% barrier because they have been a phenomenal possession team under Mike Sullivan. Pittsburgh's top four defense will rely on puck skills and puck movement for success while the bottom pairing of Cole-Lovejoy will fall back on the more classic approach of "safe plays" and defending their own end.
I'll give Pittsburgh the edge here because they have the best defenseman of the bunch in Kris Letang while also having two reserves in Derrick Pouliot and Justin Schultz who are a step up from Taylor Chorney and Mike Weber if needed. That depth may be put into action this evening.
I believe the team that wins this series will eventually punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final and have a great chance of winning the Stanley Cup. I believe that team will be Pittsburgh.
Whether the prediction I made is right or not doesn't really matter. This series should bring it.
Thanks for reading!
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»