Sources from inside the Penguins organization are calling into question the caliber of play they are receiving from their depth players.
This is a very fair assessment as the Penguins once again have some forward depth issues as they enter the playoffs. It isn't as bad as last year, but it is still below average.
From Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Tribune :
Due to dissatisfaction with the recent play of forwards Craig Adams and Beau Bennett, one or more younger players in the Penguins organization could be given an opportunity to produce come playoff time, a team source told Trib Total Media.
Those potentially being given a chance include: Andrew Ebbett, who is with the team because of injuries to Evgeni Malkin and Patric Hornqvist; Kasperi Kapanen; Jayson Megna; Bryan Rust; Oskar Sundqvist; and Scott Wilson.
The Penguins hockey operations staff is in the process of determining who would be given an opportunity first, the source said.
The biggest question I have is why did it take until 10 games left in the regular season to evaluate certain players on the current roster?
This of course could be a strategic public kick in the butt for Adams and Bennett much like the team has done with Brandon Sutter (Kesler/Staal rumors) the past two trade deadlines.
But it isn't just Bennett and Adams that need it. That first sentence could/should also include Max Lapierre and Brandon Sutter. The entire group is underwhelming. Even a guy like Nick Spaling who is doing OK is still as vanilla as it gets and unable to create with time and space.
Pittsburgh's inability to properly assess depth forwards has been something that has lowered their potential ceiling as a team for the past few years.
One trade this year is a microcosm of such mismanagement. Marcel Goc and Max Lapierre have had the same exact role for both the Penguins and the Blues this season. Neither player has produced anything tangible on the offensive front. So what else can they do at even strength?
Max Lapierre's Score-Adjusted Fenwick with the Blues was 45.3% and now with Pittsburgh it is an abysmal 43.7%. Marcel Goc had a Score-Adjusted Fenwick of 50.2% with Pittsburgh and it is now 50.8% with St. Louis. So in the name of grit Pittsburgh now consistently play in their own end with Lapierre on the ice as opposed to a 50/50 split with Goc. I would even argue the quality of Lapierre's Pittsburgh teammates has been better than what Goc had to play with.
This was a minor trade and in a vacuum it shouldn't have a catastrophic effect but in reality all the pieces matter when vying for a Stanley Cup against other legit competition. When depth is an issue you can't be making tradeoffs like this in the name of unskilled physicality.
If I say it once I'll say it a thousand times grit absent skill is a terrible place to end up when piecing together a hockey team.
Using the analytics process can be most helpful in filling out the forward depth. You have a large group of players that are looking for one year deals in any given offseason. Who are the guys that can actually play? Who were the players that were put in unfavorable situations/usage? Who were victims of low PDO? Being able to identify these things allows you to be an effective bargain shopper.
I think Toronto is a great example of this. Their big picture is kind of a mess right now due to moves they have made the past few years (Nonis) but they did hire Cam Charron, Darryl Metcalf, and Rob Pettapiece this past offseason. They also hired the analytically savvy Kyle Dubas as their Assistant GM. It is no surprise that some of the better discount shopping was done by them this summer. Mike Santorelli, Daniel Winnik, and David Booth all come in for the price in the neighborhood of one Brandon Sutter. They were also able to flip Mike Santorelli and Daniel Winnik for some futures at the trade deadline. Instead of the Penguins identifying a player like Daniel Winnik in July for cheap they had to react in hindsight to the cost of a second round pick. Get ahead of the curve not behind it.
Some people will clamor that you can't win with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang making what they do in a cap league, but that is completely false. Stop overpaying for average to below average players (Sutter/Scuderi) and learn how to go bargain shopping. Here is a usage chart of bottom six forwards who all make 2.0M (other than Sutter). I believe all these players were available during this past summer:
The red bubbles indicate a player being below average relative to his teammates in the possession department. The larger the bubble the worse they are on the possession front. All of the bigger red bubbles on this chart have ties to the Pittsburgh Penguins in some capacity the last few years.
You can't go back in time to correct the roster now so what do the Penguins have moving forward?
This usage chart is broken down by the quality of teammate. The higher up on the chart the better teammates that player has had the opportunity to play with.
That huge red line I added shows the enormous divide there is on this roster. Think of this as the haves and the have nots.
The green arrow shows two players who are interchangeable but perceptions are drastically different because of usage.
Blake Comeau has a 0.56 points per game average this season. His previous two years in Columbus he was at 0.30. So either he got a lot better or we are dealing with the Evgeni Malkin effect. Comeau is pointless in the last four games without Malkin.
In 2012-13 Beau Bennett's most common linemate was James Neal in the regular season. Bennett's points per game was 0.54 that year. Very similar to Comeau's right now. Now that Bennett is playing with the lower end forwards on the team in 2014-15 his points per game is 0.26, right in the same range as Comeau's was with Columbus.
I have no issue with the Penguins trying to look at other players that are available to them to improve the roster for the playoffs. However, it is imperative to also understand player usage and the impact it can have on players. Not understanding player usage can lead to incorrect assessments and the wrong players being demoted.
Thanks for reading!
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