Now that the roster is set for the playoff run it is up to the coaching staff to figure out where each of the pieces should be playing.
One method of doing this is taking a look at a player’s dCorsi number to find out if they are underperforming or overperforming in their current usage.
Having a dCorsi/60 of 0 means that the player is being used exactly to what his expected output is. Positive means that they are overperforming and negative means they are underperforming in their given role.
Sometimes a player can be so good that no matter what role you put him in he will outperform it, this is the case with your Evgeni Malkin’s and Sidney Crosby’s.
On the flip side you have players that underperform in their role no matter how sheltered it is IE: Tanner Glass and his -11.81 dCorsi/60 last year.
Below I have the players currently on the roster who have played with the Penguins this year for at least 15 games. These are the candidates for bottom six forward work.
dCorsi/60 already takes into consideration things like quality of competition and quality of teammate but I just want to give a visual for the Penguins usage so far this year as a reference point.
Here is Pittsburgh’s rel Quality of Competition usage from this year:
Now that we have a visual reference of how Mike Johnston has allocated his forwards here are the dCorsi values for Pittsburgh’s bottom six candidates moving forward:
Max Lapierre is performing along the same lines as Tanner Glass did in 2013-14 (or any other year in his career). As you can see above he is completely sheltered and he is severely underperforming in that role. To this point he just hasn’t been good enough. The Penguins will need more from him.
Brandon Sutter isn’t a third line center on a contender. This isn’t news at this point, but here we are.
Downie may bring an edge to his game but he hasn’t been stellar in the role(s) he has been given so far this year.
I referenced Blake Comeau recently and raised my hesitations with him being a permanent fixture in the top six. His dCorsi is low enough to where it does indeed suggest he is is a little bit over his head for that role, especially when the shooting percentage drops.
Now we start to get into the range where the players have been used accordingly. Nick Spaling had a dCorsi that was more negative earlier in the year but that was when he was playing with Evgeni Malkin on a regular basis. He is now in a more appropriate bottom six role and that number is approaching that 0 mark which means appropriate use.
Craig Adams is a low end bottom six player that is where he has been used.
Beau Bennett is outperforming his role significantly.
Last but certainly not least, Chris Kunitz. For some reason has been catching flack this year for underperforming despite the fact his offensive numbers are right in line with everything he has done since coming over from Anaheim. He is even outperforming his role in the top six. He is a top six forward and will justifiably remain there.
Daniel Winnik should be a lock for the third line, he is one of the better bottom six players the Penguins have.
Nick Spaling can play center and has also shown he is capable of a third line responsibility.
Blake Comeau is better suited for a bottom six role. That doesn't mean Comeau can’t jump back up with Malkin, but he shouldn't be immune from bottom six duty because of perceived chemistry with Geno.
Bennett deserves another sample size with Malkin, preferably with Chris Kunitz on the left wing. If he doesn't perform then you can switch back to Comeau.
dCorsi/60 can be a useful tool when trying to figure out proper usage. Sometimes it can highlight things that otherwise wouldn't be noticed.
Thanks for reading!
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