When trying to analyze professional hockey players it becomes difficult to separate personal biases from the evaluation process. These biases can cloud judgment during analysis and drive people towards only seeing the good or the bad a player does or remember a specific play that overrides the larger sample. Nobody's eye test is immune from falling victim to these biases. These biases are why objective numbers are a necessity in the evaluation process. Something has to assist us in defeating our flaws as human beings in the observation process.
Today we'll play a little game of guess who to show how this can happen. The genesis of this exercise came to me from the
Garage League Podcast which is one of my must listens every week. Lyle Kossis and Andy Smith started comparing certain players and perceptions while putting numbers to performance. I decided to put some of their conversation in writing.
So let's get started. We have Player A, Player B, and Player C. They are all top six wingers. All numbers are from the 2015-16 season and include all finished games as of the morning of March 31, 2016.
Player's A and B put up very similar overall offensive output at even-strength play while Player C falls a little bit behind. Player C has the best goal scoring numbers while Player B is clearly ahead of Player A on the even-strength goal scoring front. Players A and C are significantly better on the power play than Player B.
Here are the raw numbers for each player
Players A and B have incredibly similar goal scoring output with player C doing way better than both. Primary assists are pretty even across the board. Player B is behind in overall points but the lack of power play time is probably the driving factor for that deficit.
Is there anything crazy going on in the shooting percentage front?
Not really. Player's B and C are probably the more skilled shooters over their careers and are very close to those averages while Player A is slightly below their norm and not nearly as skilled on the shooting front.
How are things on the possession front? Do these players contribute to driving play?
Truth be told they are all doing a great job here. Player A and Player B are able to drive play towards the other net at a higher rate than Player C. Overall these numbers speak to all three players being an asset to their teams
Here is the scoring chance data for all three players taken from
War On Ice
Player A clearly does the best on this front with Player B slightly behind. Player C is on the ice for more scoring chances for than against but isn't able to generate nearly as many as Player A and B.
So to sum up these players:
Player A is a legitimate top six winger who is very good at generating scoring chances but perhaps not as skilled at finishing them. Good at both even-strength play as well as on the power play.
Player B is a legitimate top six winger that is solid at even-strength but not as effective on the power play. Does not generate as many scoring chances as Player A but does a better job of finishing the ones he has.
Player C is the best goal scorer of the bunch but falls behind in some other areas from the other two players.
*Drum roll*
Player A: Patric Hornqvist
Player B: Chris Kunitz
Player C: James Neal
Chris Kunitz has caught a lot of flack in recent memory and I'm not sure a lot of it is well deserved. The perception is that Chris Kunitz is way over the hill and hurts the Pittsburgh Penguins. If you have a problem with Chris Kunitz at even-strength then you should also have a problem with Patric Hornqvist as well.
Personally, you really shouldn't have a problem with either guy.
However, the perception of both players is very different. Chris Kunitz is a bum who needs to find his way out of the top six and then out of a job with Pittsburgh while Patric Hornqvist is viewed as an untouchable commodity. These are extreme views but you've all seen them often enough to know they exist whether it is from writers, bloggers, or fans on message boards.
Eventually the Penguins do have to move on from Kunitz because he is way older than Hornqvist but the idea that he is a liability on the Penguins right now can cease to exist because the evidence says the complete opposite. It is likelier that when we look back at Kunitz's latest contract extension it will feel like it was good value than to think that it was a bad contract. At least if you are being rationale about things.
"Why does Sidney Crosby insist on having Chris Kunitz on his wing"
Because he's still productive at even-strength in driving play and producing tangible offensive results. It's that simple. It isn't like the Penguins are loaded up at the left wing position.
I threw James Neal into the mix because Pittsburgh plays Nashville today and naturally when two players are traded for one another you like to see how both are doing. I find it impressive that Neal was able to hit the 30 goal mark without Crosby and/or Malkin as his center with most of his damage being done at even-strength.
Overall I find specific player comparisons like this a fun exercise. It can really help to ground some of the biased perceptions that exist about players and get us closer to the truth.
All data taken from
Corsica.Hockey unless otherwise stated
Thanks for reading!
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