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Can Sidney Crosby Win The Hart Trophy?

March 24, 2016, 1:31 PM ET [243 Comments]
Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
As we enter the final stretch of the season we can start to take a look at a player's overall sample to evaluate what kind of year they have had. The sample size is almost as big as it is going to get which limits the volatility of the new data coming.

I bring this up because as the 2015-16 season comes to a close what was once a runaway for Patrick Kane on the Hart Trophy front could be getting more interesting thanks to the emergence of Sidney Crosby.

Patrick Kane started the year like he was shot out of a volcano. His offensive numbers were through the roof as he registered 73 points in 53 games which included a 26 game point streak.

Sidney Crosby was too busy "playing the right way" under Mike Johnston to gain any offensive traction. Mike Johnston made one of the more popular mistakes that gets made in the NHL. That mistake is to change really awesome players into something they aren't IE: Adam Oates and Alex Ovechkin.

This two and a half month stretch to start the season railroaded Sidney Crosby's raw point totals and has made it impossible to catch Patrick Kane. Most years winning the Art Ross Trophy is enough to earn the Hart and this year may not be an exception to that. However, it is hard to ignore the caliber of play that Sidney Crosby has shown since being allowed to play the right way*

*The real right way, not the risk averse afraid to let offensive players do their thing mindset that plagues the NHL



These stats actually include about a month's worth of the Mike Johnston sample size.

And if you think I am overstating the negative impact Mike Johnston had on Sidney Crosby consider the following:



One of these things doesn't look like the others...

Here are some direct comparisons with Patrick Kane that show just how amazing Sidney Crosby's turnaround has been this year.

First up we'll look at 5v5 points per 60. You'll notice on most of these charts that Sidney Crosby absolutely takes off at the time of the coaching change.



Once Sidney Crosby was allowed to play hockey again he started to produce offense at a rate which is more in line with the amazing standard he has set in years past.

Here are the Score-Adjusted Fenwick numbers



Again, the coaching change for Pittsburgh. Crosby has driven play way better than Kane.

I feel as though using raw numbers to compare the players is fair given the quality of both teams and the fact that if anything Kane should have an advantage with his usage when compared to Sid.

Here are the even-strength Corsi Against per 60 which measures the shot volume registered against one's own net when on the ice



What a complete failure Mike Johnston was this year. Not only did he strip away Sidney Crosby's ability to generate offense but his make Sidney Crosby "play a 200 foot game" also sabotaged his ability to do just that. Sidney Crosby is back to being a quality defensive player because he is back to always having the puck. What a concept.

Every single one of these charts shows Sidney Crosby playing significantly better than Patrick Kane for a majority of the season. Crosby's ability to catch Kane in the minds of voters and actually win the award will depend on how much the voters value that first stretch of the season.

There is precedent for this to swing in Crosby's favor. It has been shown in the past that voters can fall victim to recency bias. In fact it was Sidney Crosby who was on the wrong end of this and lost out on a Hart Trophy in 2013. Sidney Crosby was the best player in the lockout shortened 2012-13 season but because of his broken jaw, which cost him the final 12 games of that season, it opened the door for somebody to snatch up the award with a great final stretch of play. Alex Ovechkin had a miserable start to the season but caught fire towards the end. Alex Ovechkin finished the season like someone possessed. The Great Eight had 21 goals and 41 points in the last 29 games of the season. However, much like Crosby won't catch Patrick Kane in points, Ovechkin didn't catch Crosby in points either. The award still went to Ovechkin fueled by recency bias.

Sidney Crosby still has some work to do. The point gap as it presently stands (92 vs. 76) is probably too wide for Crosby to gain enough votes to win the award, but if things keep trending in the next ten games or so like they've been there is a window of opportunity for Crosby to win his third Hart Trophy. Pittsburgh is winning a ton of games and getting a lot more positive press while the Blackhawks are going in the opposite direction. Throw in an Evgeni Malkin long term injury and the variables necessary for a long shot comeback are in place for number 87

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