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As the 2014 offseason approaches the Pittsburgh Penguins will have to make some important decisions with their unrestricted free agents. The three important free agents will be Brooks Orpik, Matt Niskanen, and Jussi Jokinen. For the purpose of this blog I will be focusing on the two defensemen.
For much of the past year it was a forgone conclusion that Matt Niskanen would not be a Penguin for the 2014-2015 season, hell most people thought Niskanen wasn’t going to be a Penguin to start the season because of salary cap ramifications. Is Matt Niskanen’s departure still a forgone conclusion? Should the Penguins invest once again into long time veteran Brooks Orpik? Or should they part ways with Orpik and re-sign Matt Niskanen? There is only so much money to go around.
Matt Niskanen has been the Penguins most consistent defenseman this year and is also relatively younger than Brooks Orpik. Orpik has been injured on and off for the past couple of seasons and is starting to show some early signs of slowing down.
I thought I would take a look at how each player has impacted their 5 most common forward linemates.
Each of the following charts is taking data from the 2013-2014 season at even strength.
Let’s start with the Corsi For percentages for Matt Niskanen and what impact he has on some of the Penguins forwards:
To nobody’s surprise Niskanen has terrific numbers when playing with Crosby and Kunitz. What might be a little surprising is the drop that Crosby and Kunitz see when they are away from Niskanen. The numbers are still very good but they are not at the same level as they are when playing with Niskanen.
One nice thing to notice is that the green bars which represent Niskanen away from each specific teammate are very consistent and all above the 50% mark. Regardless of who Niskanen is playing with, he is a positive possession player.
One thing to keep an eye on is the Brandon Sutter area on the chart. Niskanen is a huge positive influence on Brandon Sutter. When playing with Niskanen Sutter is a 51.4% possession player, without Niskanen he dive bombs down to 38.2%
Now let’s look at the goal stats for Niskanen:
Niskanen’s Goals For percentages are through the roof no matter which forward he is playing with, the exception being Jussi Jokinen. The Penguins score at least 8 goals for to every 2 against when Niskanen is on the ice with Crosby, Kunitz, Malkin, and Sutter. That is amazing.
What is even more amazing is how far each forward’s goals for percentage drops when playing away from Niskanen this year. They go from scoring 8 out of every 10 goals to giving up more than they put in.
The forwards may see their numbers dip under 50% without Niskanen but Niskanen does not see his numbers drop below 50% away from each forward. Another sign of just how consistent he has been this year.
Once again Matt Niskanen’s impact on Brandon Sutter is incredibly positive. Sutter away from Niskanen is below average.
Now we will move onto Brooks Orpik’s possession numbers:
Orpik’s possession numbers are not terrible by any means but they also are not nearly as good as Niskanen’s with the same teammates. In some instances the forward plays better away from Orpik than he does with him. That is the case for Crosby, Kunitz, Malkin, and Sutter. This is the complete opposite of Niskanen. Niskanen made others better; Orpik seems to be having the opposite effect.
Looking at Brandon Sutter’s numbers with Orpik you can see that they are well below average.
Here are Orpik’s Goals For numbers:
Orpik is not a good fit with Crosby or Kunitz. Both forwards are significantly better away from Orpik. Orpik plays much better with Malkin and Jokinen.
Once again Brandon Sutter and Brooks Orpik do not mesh at all. They have an abysmal GF% percentage of 30% when playing together. Sutter’s GF% away from Orpik absolutely skyrockets to 70.6%, that is an incredible jump.
The reason I have consistently pointed out Sutter’s numbers with both Niskanen and Orpik is because the Penguins would be re-signing Orpik to play in a shutdown role. Ideally the Penguins will want to move Brandon Sutter back into his shutdown role as the 3rd line center when he gets competent wingers again. Looking at these numbers it would suggest that Orpik and Sutter are not compatible at all. In fact the numbers are discouraging. If Orpik is not going to gel with the Penguins shutdown center can he be an effective shutdown defenseman moving forward? Will it be worth locking Orpik up long term?
Could Orpik’s numbers look worse when compared to Niskanen’s be because of the role he plays? Let’s look at the player usage chart for Penguins defensemen:
Judging by the chart Niskanen’s role on the Penguins this year is not significantly different than the one Orpik plays. At least not different enough to account for the drastic difference in possession/goals for numbers we see from the charts above.
Given the plethora of young defensemen ready to make an impact at the NHL level for the Penguins somebody will have to move on. The question is should it be Niskanen or Orpik?
Things to consider when comparing both players are the quality of play, which favors Niskanen at the present moment. Age, which favors Niskanen. Cost, which should be a push as both players will be in the same neighborhood on the open market.
If nothing drastically changes from now until the end of the year I think the Penguins have to give significant thought to keeping Niskanen over Orpik.
With the addition of Rob Scuderi it makes it easier to let a player like Orpik move on.
Ray Shero will have some very tough decisions to make this offseason.
Thanks for reading!
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