Tell me if you’ve heard this one before. A San Jose Sharks forward with a great shot and self-confidence issues gets bumped from the first line down to the second line. Psychologically damaged by the demotion and unable to regain his previous scoring touch, the streaky sniper is bumped even further down the depth chart by younger, more promising players, eventually finding himself languishing in an ill-suited role on the team’s third line.
Just like Jonathan Cheechoo years before him, Devin Setoguchi has now taken the plunge from Joe Thornton’s wing (one of the most coveted spots in hockey) to a third-line checking role. Buried under layers of talent, the fourth-year winger is now the odd man out in San Jose, surpassed by rookie Logan Couture for a top-six role and essentially left to fend for himself alongside linemates who skate but rarely score, show up but rarely shine.
Setoguchi’s slump from 31 goals and 65 points as a sophomore to his current pace (10 goals, 15 assists) mirrors Cheechoo’s so closely that you’re almost surprised he doesn’t have a number 14 on his back. He’s been given a few chances to produce on Thornton’s wing during the last year but crumbled under the pressure of those brief auditions, and he currently looks like a shell of the confident, snarling winger we saw two seasons ago.
I’ve always said that Jeremy Roenick’s retirement didn’t hurt the Sharks much, but it shattered Setoguchi’s young, budding career. Roenick took the youngster under his wing, offering a broad smile and encouraging word every chance he got, and nobody filled that void when the future Hall of Famer retired, leaving Setoguchi to look out for himself and weather the turbulence alone. So far, he hasn’t been able to find the consistency that made some Shark fans tout him over Anze Kopitar two short seasons ago.
Not only is Setoguchi streaky on the ice, he’s a roller coaster emotionally; brash and cocky when things are going well, frail and weak when they aren’t. For a player expected to score goals, things are rarely going well on the San Jose third line, where Setoguchi finds himself in a strange limbo between past expectations and current reality. That’s caused the trade rumors to swirl, making him the Sharks’ obvious trade bait if they’re looking for an upgrade on defense.
Nobody can say what’s going to happen, but if you analyze the situation you’ll find three reasons why Setoguchi won’t be traded and three reasons he will. At the end of the day, it will be up to Doug Wilson to decide what’s in the best interest of his hockey team.
Three Reasons to Trade Him Right #@%&ing Now
1) He needs a change of scenery – There’s no doubt that it would benefit Setoguchi to put him on the top line, letting him find his legs and production with Thornton and Dany Heatley. Unfortunately for him, San Jose coach Todd McLellan has decided it’s better to go with a monster top line, letting the youngster watch from the sidelines as the big trio enjoys major minutes and power play time. Also, now that Couture has secured a spot on the second line Setoguchi really doesn’t have a natural spot on the team.
He’s too skilled to play on the third line, and doesn’t have the defensive ability to be a good fit in that role. Setoguchi would be seeing top-six minutes on almost any other team in the league, and his career will only continue to stall the longer he’s held down. He could be a star playing for the Leafs, Thrashers or Islanders – each of whom desperately need scoring help – but he’s just another face in the crowd in San Jose, languishing on the third line and playing 11-14 minutes a night.
2) The Sharks need defensive help – San Jose’s defense has looked okay through 16 games against a bunch of squads that won’t be playing past April 15, but the current group isn’t good enough to bring the Sharks a Stanley Cup, and I’m assuming that’s still the goal. The team lacks a puck-moving No. 2 defenseman that can take some of the pressure off Dan Boyle, Douglas Murray has taken a step back after impressing last season, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s development has stagnated.
Bringing in another two-way defenseman would allow McLellan to decrease the minutes he’s giving to Niclas Wallin and Kent Huskins, and it would also benefit the team’s transition game. The Sharks have an obvious strength (forwards) and an obvious weakness (defense), so it only makes sense to skim a little off one side and bolster the other. That’s how champions do it, by addressing deficiencies in the roster without giving up too much in the process. Right now, sacrificing Setoguchi’s 25-point campaign for a solid defenseman like Francois Beauchemin looks like a pretty solid short-term move.
3) Teams are interested in him – Teams can see the potential in Setoguchi, and they’re lining up to take a crack in the hopes they can polish him up and return him to a 30-goal, 60-point player. Apparently, the Sharks aren’t interested in doing that, or else they would do everything they could to resurrect his offensive touch and clean up the pile of rubble containing his self-confidence.
There isn’t any urgency to trade Setoguchi, and obviously the Sharks can wait as long as they want to pull the trigger on a deal, but the longer you wait the more you risk either a) an injury to Setoguchi that takes him off the market completely, or b) further regression in his play that diminishes his trade value further until he’s viewed as a liability rather than an attractive commodity. If the right deal is on the table, now would appear to be the time to jump on it, giving new additions plenty of time to adjust to a new system and new teammates.
Three Reasons Not to Trade Him Right #@%&ing Now
1) He’s a cheap top-six forward – How many other teams have a 23-year old, 30-goal scorer with a $1.8 million cap hit? The price is definitely right for Setoguchi, even if he only scores 25 points and faces a pay cut during the offseason, because you have lesser players around the league making a lot more for the same level of production. That price tag means he’s not expected to score a whole lot, which in turn prevents the coaching staff from feeling they have to shoehorn him into a top-six role.
However, Setoguchi’s real appeal is the fact that he can step into a top six job at a moment’s notice. If one of the big boys goes down with an injury, he’ll be the first one getting a promotion to a scoring line and, ideally, should produce when given the chance. There aren’t many teams in this league that share San Jose’s abundance of forward talent, and it would be hard for them to part with any of it.
2) His return won’t net much – Honestly, trading Setoguchi today isn’t going to provide the same type of return you would have received trading him 16 months ago. The bloom is definitely off the rose, and the Sharks aren’t going to dangle Setoguchi in order to add a player like Tomas Kaberle or Kevin Bieksa. If they planned to trade him, they would make an attempt to showcase him with some power play time or a few shifts with some talented linemates.
Not only have the Sharks failed to do showcase him, but McLellan keeps insinuating (with his comments and his line combinations) that Setoguchi’s in the dog house. That’s not exactly the best way to proceed when looking to get the maximum value for a player. If a trade is coming down the road, expect some effort to make him look like something other than the next Cheechoo. Until that happens, the return in a trade will be severely diminished.
3) His best hockey is yet to come – Unlike Cheechoo, Setoguchi’s career isn’t on the downswing and he won’t be in the American Hockey League a year from now. When Cheechoo was traded to Ottawa, Shark fans had already endured at least three seasons of wait-and-see regarding the fading winger. It was clear the scoring touch was gone and it wasn’t coming back.
Setoguchi has obviously hit a rough patch in his development (a patch aided by his frequent demotions) but if you think he’s hit his peak already you’re dreaming, and a trade right now is almost guaranteed to come back and bite the Sharks in their big, tail-wagging butts. Even if Beauchemin was to come in and fill a hole in the defense, he’s a 30-year-old defenseman who won’t be getting any better. Setoguchi could blossom elsewhere, leaving a huge black mark on Doug Wilson’s trade record.
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Coming off their best game of the season, the Sharks roll into Denver tonight hoping to keep their winning ways going against the Colorado Avalanche. As always, the SharksBuzz Postgame Show will be going live immediately after the final buzzer sounds and we could have some special guests joining us this evening. You can listen in, or give us a call free of charge at (724) 444-7444, talkcast ID# 74909. Enjoy the game and we’ll talk to you later on tonight.
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